IRAQ: MARTINO CAUSES STIR OVER ITALIAN SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003880

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012
TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR XF IZ MOPS MARR XF IZ IT IRAQI FREEDOM
SUBJECT: IRAQ: MARTINO CAUSES STIR OVER ITALIAN SUPPORT
FOR U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION

REF: A) ROME 3760 B) ROME 3795

CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DCM THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D)


1. (U) SUMMARY: ITALIAN DEFENSE MINISTER MARTINO CAUSED A
STIR AMONG ITALIAN POLITICAL LEADERS AND COMMENTATORS BY
SUGGESTING THAT ITALY WOULD "AUTOMATICALLY" SUPPORT U.S.
MILITARY INTERVENTION IN IRAQ. HE ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT ITALY
WOULD ONLY PARTICIPATE IN THE MILITARY EFFORT IF THERE IS
"PROVEN EVIDENCE" OF IRAQ'S CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF
MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD). OPPOSITION FORCES REACTED WITH
OUTRAGE, WHILE OTHER GOI OFFICIALS HASTENED TO TONE DOWN
MARTINO'S MESSAGE. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) IN AN INTERVIEW PUBLISHED IN THE AUGUST 8 ISSUE OF
THE CENTRIST NEWS WEEKLY "PANORAMA," ITALIAN MOD ANTONIO
MARTINO SAID THAT, AT A RECENT NATO DEFENSE MINISTERS MEETING
IN BRUSSELS, HE AND HIS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES DISCUSSED WITH
SECRETARY RUMSFELD THE PROBABLE EXISTENCE OF WMD PLANTS IN

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IRAQ. MARTINO SAID THAT IT WOULD BE "IRRESPONSIBLE" NOT TO
TAKE ACTION IF THERE IS POSITIVE EVIDENCE THAT SUCH
PRODUCTION FACILITIES EXIST.


3. (SBU) CAUTIOUS AS USUAL WHEN IT COMES TO COMMITTING
ITALIAN MILITARY PARTICIPATION, HOWEVER, MARTINO REMARKED
THAT THE "LITMUS TEST" ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ENGAGE IN
MILITARY ACTIVITY AGAINST IRAQ IS THE ISSUE OF UN INSPECTORS.
IF SADDAM HUSSEIN ALLOWS THE UNCONDITIONAL RETURN OF THE
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INSPECTORS, HE ARGUED, THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR MILITARY
INTERVENTION. IF, INSTEAD, THE IRAQI LEADER CONTINUES TO
BLOCK THEIR RETURN, MARTINO INFERRED THAT THIS WOULD BE
JUSTIFICATION FOR MILITARY ACTION.


4. (U) ACCORDING TO PRESS STATEMENTS, MARTINO BELIEVES THE
U.S. IS RIGHT IN NOT WANTING TO WAIT INDEFINITELY BEFORE
STRIKING, GIVEN THE POSSIBLE CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL THREAT
FROM IRAQ. STILL, HE DOES NOT BELIEVE U.S. ACTION IS
IMMINENT, SINCE WASHINGTON WILL FIRST WANT TO BUILD THE
WIDEST POSSIBLE INTERNATIONAL COALITION -- POSSIBLY WIDER
THAN DESERT STORM IN 1991, AND INCLUDING THE RUSSIAN
FEDERATION. MARTINO SAID THAT, IF THE U.S. EVENTUALLY
DECIDES TO ATTACK, ITALY, AS A CLOSE U.S. ALLY, WOULD
"AUTOMATICALLY" MAKE ITS AIR SPACE AVAILABLE. THE
PARTICIPATION OF ITALIAN TROOPS WOULD DEPEND, HOWEVER, "ON
THE PROVEN EVIDENCE OF IRAQ'S WAR PLANS."


5. (U) RESPONDING TO MARTINO'S STATEMENTS AND RESULTING
OPPOSITION CRITICISM, ALFREDO MANTICA, MFA UNDER SECRETARY
FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, AND MARGHERITA BONIVER, MFA UNDER
SECRETARY FOR ASIA, TOLD THE PRESS THAT MILITARY INTERVENTION

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BY AN INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCE WOULD REQUIRE A UN RESOLUTION.
THEY ALSO SAID ITALY WOULD MAKE ITS DECISION ON WHETHER TO
PARTICIPATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ITS EUROPEAN PARTNERS,
ALTHOUGH BONIVER OPINED THAT ITALY WOULD ULTIMATELY BACK THE
U.S. IF ASKED BY PRESIDENT BUSH. ONE RULING COALITION MEMBER
IN THE SENATE CAUTIONED THAT ANY DECISION INVOLVING AN
ITALIAN MILITARY COMMITMENT MUST GO BEFORE PARLIAMENT.


6. (U) THEIR STATEMENTS DID LITTLE TO PACIFY THE OPPOSITION,
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WHICH PROTESTED MARTINO'S "DISCONCERTING" STATEMENTS AND
"SUBMISSIVE" ATTITUDE TOWARD THE UNITED STATES. OVER 70
LEADERS OF THE LEFT AND CENTER-LEFT SIGNED A PETITION
OPPOSING MILITARY INTERVENTION IN IRAQ. MANY COMMENTATORS
POINT TO THE DANGERS OF AN ATTACK ON IRAQ ON MIDDLE EAST
STABILITY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, WHILE OPPOSITION FORCES ARE
CALLING FOR AN END TO THE UN EMBARGO AGAINST IRAQ AND ARE
APPEALING TO OTHER LEFTIST FORCES IN EUROPE TO TAKE POLITICAL
ACTION TO MAKE CLEAR EUROPE'S OPPOSITION TO AN EXTENSION OF
THE CONFLICT.


7. (U) SOME IN ITALY SPECULATE THAT THE U.S. REQUEST FOR
MORE ITALIAN TROOPS IN OEF IS AN EFFORT TO FREE UP U.S.
TROOPS AND THUS A SIGNAL OF U.S. INTENTIONS TO ATTACK IRAQ.
ALTHOUGH BONIVER CALLED THIS INTERPRETATION A "CREDIBLE
HYPOTHESIS," MARTINO DENIED IT, SAYING THAT ITALIAN SOLDIERS
WOULD REPLACE BRITISH, NOT AMERICAN, TROOPS AS PART OF AN
ON-GOING SIX-MONTH ROTATION.


8. (C) COMMENT. THE GOI UNDER PM BERLUSCONI HAS BEEN A
STRONG SUPPORTER OF U.S. MILITARY POLICY. AT THE SAME TIME,
HOWEVER, IT IS EQUALLY COMMITTED TO A COMMON EUROPEAN DEFENSE
POLICY AND THEREFORE RELUCTANT TO GUARANTEE ACTIVE MILITARY
PARTICIPATION IN IRAQ -- IF AND WHEN IT BECOMES NECESSARY --
IN THE ABSENCE OF AN EU CONSENSUS. DESPITE GOI (AND OUR OWN)

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ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 C-00
DOTE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00
MOFM-05 MOF-01 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02
OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00
SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /013W
-------------- D5BBF6 071000Z /38
R 070957Z AUG 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5307
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
AMCONSUL NAPLES
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMCONSUL FLORENCE
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
SECDEF WASHDC
JOINT STAFF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 003880

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012
TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR XF IZ MOPS MARR XF IZ IT IRAQI FREEDOM
SUBJECT: IRAQ: MARTINO CAUSES STIR OVER ITALIAN SUPPORT
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FOR U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION

ASSURANCES TO THE CONTRARY, THE U.S. REQUEST FOR INCREASED
ITALIAN TROOP INVOLVEMENT IN OEF HAS FED RAMPANT SPECULATION
OF AN IMMINENT ATTACK ON IRAQ. PM BERLUSCONI HAS PLEDGED HIS
SUPPORT FOR ANY U.S. DECISION ON IRAQ, BUT STRESSED THE
IMPORTANCE OF CLOSE CONSULTATION AND INTERNATIONAL
COORDINATION ON SUCH SENSITIVE ISSUES (REF A). IN THAT
MEETING, THE AMBASSADOR ASSURED THE PRIME MINISTER THAT SUCH
CONSULTATIONS WOULD BE FORTHCOMING. END COMMENT.

SEMBLER

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2002ROME03880 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL