PM BERLUSCONI WILL ALSO REMAIN FM BERLUSCONI "FOR

UNCLAS ROME 003680

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/WE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: PM BERLUSCONI WILL ALSO REMAIN FM BERLUSCONI "FOR
A FEW MORE MONTHS"

REF: A) ROME 03651 B) ROME 3600


1. (SBU) DESPITE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MUSINGS FROM VARIOUS
SOURCES IN THE GOI (REPORTED REFTELS),PM BERLUSCONI WILL NOT
RELINQUISH HIS POST AS INTERIM FOREIGN MINISTER ANY TIME
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 ROME 03680 251544Z
SOON. REFTELS REPORTED THAT THE PM WAS LIKELY TO ANNOUNCE
SOON THE APPOINTMENT OF CURRENT MINISTER FOR PUBLIC
ADMINISTRATION AND SECURITY FRANCO FRATTINI AS FOREIGN
MINISTER.


2. (U) DURING HIS ADDRESS TO A CONFERENCE FOR ITALIAN
AMBASSADORS IN ROME ON JULY 24, HOWEVER, BERLUSCONI SAID THAT
HE WOULD KEEP THE MFA INTERIM POST "FOR A FEW MORE MONTHS, OR
MAYBE EVEN LONGER." HE EXPLAINED THAT HE IS THE HEAD OF A
COALITION GOVERNMENT, AND THAT "WITHIN THIS COALITION, THE
CONDITIONS TO APPOINT A NEW FOREIGN MINISTER HAVE NOT YET
RIPENED." BERLUSCONI ASSURED THE AMBASSADORS THAT HE WOULD
TRY TO BE "MORE PRESENT, MORE UP TO THE TASK, TO MEET YOUR
EXPECTATIONS." HE ALSO ADMITTED THAT WHEN THE TIME FINALLY
COMES TO GIVE UP THE MFA, HE WILL MISS THE JOB.


3. (SBU) COMMENT. IN CITING THE COALITION GOVERNMENT AS
THE REASON FOR DELAYING HIS DECISION ON A NEW FM, BERLUSCONI
PROBABLY HAD IN MIND THE FACT THAT GIVING FRATTINI THE MFA
WOULD MEAN THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES
(FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENSE, ECONOMY, AND INTERIOR) WOULD BE
RUN BY FORZA ITALIA (FI - BERLUSCONI'S PARTY) MEMBERS. WE
UNDERSTAND THAT THE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS IN THE COALITION, IN
PARTICULAR, ARE PUSHING FOR MORE POSITIONS. THIS DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR FRATTINI'S CHANCES. THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF
THE PARTIES COMPRISING THE COALITION WILL NOT CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW MONTHS. BARRING A MAJOR SHUFFLE IN THE CABINET
(SOMETHING BERLUSCONI HAS SAID HE IS RELUCTANT TO DO),IT MAY
BE THAT BERLUSCONI IS STALLING FOR TIME TO CAST HIS NET WIDER
IN THE SEARCH FOR A CAPABLE AND, FROM PARLIAMENT'S
STANDPOINT, ACCEPTABLE FM.
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 ROME 03680 251544Z


4. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED. DESPITE BERLUSCONI'S PROMISE
TO BE MORE VISIBLE AT THE MFA, IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT FOR HIM TO HANDLE BOTH THE PM AND FM JOBS
EFFECTIVELY. "A FEW MORE MONTHS" MEANS HE WILL RETAIN THE FM
POSITION AT LEAST UNTIL JUST BEFORE, OR THROUGH, THE NATO
SUMMIT IN PRAGUE. GIVEN THE DETAILS TO BE HAMMERED OUT ON
ENLARGEMENT IN THE RUN-UP TO PRAGUE, THE LACK OF A FULL TIME
FM COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE GOI. IN ADDITION, THE MFA
HAS STARTED PREPARATIONS FOR ITALY'S EU PRESIDENCY IN JULY

2003. BERLUSCONI MAY FIND THAT THE BURDEN OF TWO CABINET
POSITIONS WILL FORCE HIM TO EXPEDITE HIS CHOICE FOR FM.
RESPECTED MEDIA ANALYSTS ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING JUST
THIS.
SEMBLER

UNCLASSIFIED

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2002ROME03680 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED