AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING

CONFIDENTIAL ROME 001644

SIPDIS

ALMATY FOR EMBASSY DUSHANBE
NSC FOR KHALILZHAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2012
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF IT ITPREL ITPREL AFGHANISTAN
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING
OUT ESF GRANT TO ZAHIR SHAH FOUNDATION

REF: A. 01 ROME 5901

B. 01 ROME 5902

C. ROME 1616

CLASSIFIED BY: POL MINCOUNS TOM COUNTRYMAN, REASONS
1.5 (B) AND (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) ON A MARCH 11-12 VISIT TO ROME, SA/PAB DEPUTY
DIRECTOR STEVE MCGANN MET WITH MFA OFFICIALS, REPRESENTATIVES
OF FORMER AFGHAN KING ZAHIR SHAH, AND ZAHIR SHAH HIMSELF.
MCGANN AND SA/PD DEPUTY DIRECTOR SUSAN HOVANEC CLOSED OUT AN
ESF GRANT OFFERED TO THE KING'S ASSOCIATION TO PROMOTE THE
EMERGENCY LOYA JIRGA, DEMOCRACY, AND WOMEN'S PARTICIPATION IN
AFGHANISTAN (REFS A, B),RETURNING SOME $280,000 TO THE USG
FOR FURTHER ACTIVITIES TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN AFGHANISTAN.
DURING THE MEETING WITH THE FORMER KING, ZAHIR SHAH ALLUDED
TO EVOLVING EXPECTATIONS OF THE ROLE HE WOULD PLAY UPON HIS
RETURN TO AFGHANISTAN, PORTRAYING HIMSELF -- "IF THE AFGHAN
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 ROME 01644 01 OF 03 030823Z
PEOPLE WANT IT" -- AS POSSIBLY A HEAD OF STATE A LA THE
FRENCH PRESIDENT. END SUMMARY.

--------------
CHANNEL MONEY INSIDE AFGHANISTAN
--------------

2. (SBU) IN THEIR MEETING WITH MFA COORDINATOR FOR
AFGHANISTAN ENRICO DI MAIO, MCGANN AND HOVANEC DISCUSSED THE
NEED FOR THE USG TO RE-PROGRAM REMAINING MONEYS FROM A GRANT
AWARDED TO THE ZAHIR SHAH ASSOCIATION FOR PEACE AND
SELF-DETERMINATION IN AFGHANISTAN FOR FURTHER WORK INSIDE
AFGHANISTAN TOWARD THE SAME PURPOSES -- DEMOCRACY BUILDING
AND INCREASED CIVIL PARTICIPATION BY AFGHAN WOMEN. DI MAIO
SAID THE GOI WOULD LET THE KING'S ASSOCIATION TAKE ANYTHING
USEFUL PROVIDED BY THE GOI, SUCH AS COMPUTERS, WITH THEM TO
AFGHANISTAN, BUT ITALY, TOO, WAS PLANNING ON ENDING DIRECT
FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO THE KING AND HIS ASSOCIATES.


3. (C) DI MAIO SAID THE REALITY IN AFGHANISTAN WAS THAT
THOSE WHO CONTINUED TO RECEIVE OUTSIDE SUPPORT, SUCH AS
FORMER PRESIDENT RABBANI, WOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO
SEEK -- AND OBTAIN -- INSIDE SUPPORT: SIMPLY PUT, TO BUY
LOYA JIRGA (LJ) VOTES. IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT FOR THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO ENSURE THAT PEOPLE LIKE AIA
CHAIRMAN KARZAI ALSO HAD ACCESS TO FUNDS, AT LEAST THE
DEVELOPMENT FUNDS AVAILABLE TO THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. THE
PROPER DEPLOYMENT OF THOSE FUNDS BY THE AIA WOULD
LEGITIMATELY STRENGTHEN KARZAI'S POSITION. MCGANN CONVEYED
THE USG INTENT TO SUPPORT PREPARATION AND HOLDING OF THE LJ,
BUT NOTED THAT OTHER COUNTRIES MUST SHARE COSTS WHICH COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT. DI MAIO SAID THE GOI HAD NOT YET CONSIDERED
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 ROME 01644 01 OF 03 030823Z
FUNDING OF THE LJ, BUT HE HOPED TO BRING THIS UP FOR
FINANCING CONSIDERATION. ITALY, TOO, MUST PAY ITS SHARE, HE
SAID; "WITH YOU, WE CAME UP WITH THIS IDEA." HE SUGGESTED
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALSO CONSIDER USING FOREIGN
ASSISTANCE TO ENCOURAGE THE KIND OF COOPERATION THAT BEGAN IN
BONN. AIA DEFENSE MINISTER FAHIM, INTERIOR MINISTER QANOONI,
AND FOREIGN MINISTER ABDULLAH SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED, IF NEED
BE UNDER THREAT OF AN END TO FINANCIAL SUPPORT, TO TELL
RABBANI TO STOP INTERFERING IN EFFORTS TO SET UP THE LOYA
JIRGA.


4. (SBU) DI MAIO UNDERSCORED ITALY'S INTEREST IN FUNDING
DEVELOPMENT OF AFGHANISTAN'S ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE,
PREFERABLY IN COORDINATION WITH THE USG. "NO ONE ELSE BUT
THE TWO OF US IS THINKING ABOUT THIS," HE ASSERTED. HE
MENTIONED THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LAW INSTITUTE (IDLI)
AS A POSSIBLE VEHICLE. HOVANEC NOTED THERE SHOULD BE GROWING
INTEREST IN SUCH WORK AMONG NGO'S; REPORTING ON PROBLEMS IN
THIS SPHERE HAS INCREASED. IN RESPONSE TO MCGANN'S QUERY, DI
MAIO CLARIFIED THAT ITALY WOULD BE WILLING TO TAKE THE LEAD
IN JUDICIAL DEVELOPMENT. (N.B. THE IDLI CONTINUES ITS WORK
ON A DATABASE AND ANALYSIS OF PAST AFGHAN CONSTITUTIONS AND
CODES; SEE REF C.)

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4228

PAGE 01 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z
ACTION SA-00

INFO LOG-00 MFA-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00
EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00
SAS-00 /007W
-------------- 7E3AEE 030824Z /40
P 030659Z APR 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3066
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ALMATY
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
AMEMBASSY BEIJING
AMEMBASSY BERLIN
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY TASHKENT

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 001644

SIPDIS

ALMATY FOR EMBASSY DUSHANBE
NSC FOR KHALILZHAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2012
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF IT ITPREL ITPREL AFGHANISTAN
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING
OUT ESF GRANT TO ZAHIR SHAH FOUNDATION


5. (SBU) AS A RESULT OF THE AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN
MCGANN AND ZALMAI RASSOUL (THE FORMER KING'S EXECUTIVE
SECRETARY AND AIA AVIATION MINISTER),GRANT EXPERTS MUELLER

SIPDIS
AND SNEARLY WORKED WITH ZAHIR SHAH'S REPRESENTATIVES TO BEGIN
AUDITING EXPENDITURES UNDER THE ORIGINAL GRANT AND DETERMINE
THE AMOUNT OF MONEY REMAINING. THE ASSOCIATION RETURNED
UNUSED FUNDS IN THE AMOUNT OF $117,675 TO THE USG AND URGED
THAT THESE MONEYS BE USED "TO PURSUE THE FULL PARTICIPATION
OF AFGHAN WOMEN IN ALL ASPECTS OF CIVIL, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL LIFE IN AFGHANISTAN." THE AGREEMENT FURTHER
SPECIFIES THAT, "IN LIGHT OF HIS MAJESTY'S IMMINENT RETURN TO
AFGHANISTAN AND THE CESSATION OF THE ASSOCIATION'S ACTIVITIES
IN ROME, ITALY," THE REMAINING FUNDS "BE USED TO COMMENCE
WORK WITHIN AFGHANISTAN."

--------------
KING'S PLANS FOR HIS RETURN
--------------

6. (C) DCM, MCGANN, AND HOVANEC MET WITH FORMER KING ZAHIR
SHAH ON MARCH 12 TO CONFIRM THE DECISION TO CLOSE OUT THE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z
GRANT AND DISCUSS THE KING'S FUTURE PLANS. BOTH SIDES SHARED
APPRECIATION FOR THEIR ONGOING COOPERATION TO LIBERATE
AFGHANISTAN FROM THE SCOURGE OF TERRORISM AND EXTREMISM AND
TO BUILD A DEMOCRATIC AND PROGRESSIVE ISLAMIC STATE. MCGANN
NOTED THE IMPORTANCE OF NEXT STEPS IN IMPLEMENTING THE BONN
AGREEMENT AND OF THE SYMBOLIC ROLE THE KING WOULD PLAY IN
OPENING THE LOYA JIRGA. HE ASKED WHAT THE KING WOULD
PERCEIVE AS A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME FROM THE LJ. THE KING
REPLIED THAT ALTHOUGH HE HAD BEEN FAR AWAY, THE AFGHAN PEOPLE
HAD MAINTAINED CONFIDENCE IN HIM. HE HOPED TO BE OF USE TO
HIS COUNTRYMEN IN FULFILLING THEIR ASPIRATIONS. HIS MOST
IMPORTANT EFFORT WOULD BE TO MAINTAIN HARMONY AND HELP TO
PROVIDE SECURITY AND PEACE TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN. HE
HOPED TO BRING UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN DIFFERENT ETHNIC
ELEMENTS AND AFGHANS PURSUING "DIFFERENT POLICIES." "I OFFER
MYSELF IN SERVICE TO THE AFGHAN NATION IN ANY ROLE OR SERVICE
THE PEOPLE WANT, AS DETERMINED BY THE LOYA JIRGA," ZAHIR
CONCLUDED.


7. (C) MCGANN NOTED THAT THE KING HAD SAID HE DID NOT
INTEND TO SEEK A ROLE IN GOVERNMENT OR TO PLAY A ROLE IN
AFGHANISTAN'S TRANSITIONAL AUTHORITY. WAS THIS STILL HIS
PERSPECTIVE? GENERAL WALI, THE KING'S SON-IN-LAW AND
INTERPRETER (COMMENT: SOMETIMES SUSPECTED OF INSERTING HIS
OWN VIEWS IN THE TRANSLATIONS),ASKED WHETHER THIS QUESTION
REFERRED TO THE KING'S PLAYING AN EXECUTIVE ROLE, SUCH AS A
PRIME MINISTER OR FOREIGN MINISTER, OR A HEAD OF STATE ROLE,
SUCH AS THE BRITISH KING OR THE FRENCH PRESIDENT. HOW DOES
THE KING SEE HIMSELF, MCGANN REPEATED. THE KING AND/OR WALI
HEDGED, BUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION REVEALED AN
EVOLUTION IN THE KING'S -- OR HIS ENTOURAGE'S -- PERCEPTION
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z
OF HIS ROLE TO INCLUDE CONSIDERATION OF HIS POSITION AS A
RELATIVELY ACTIVE HOS WITH NOT INSIGNIFICANT AUTHORITY TO
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL CREATION OF A PERMANENT GOVERNMENT. BY
THE END OF THE CONVERSATION, THE KING WAS QUITE CLEAR HE
WOULD CONSIDER A FUTURE HOS ROLE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
FRENCH PRESIDENT.


8. (C) DCM ASKED THE KING WHETHER HE BELIEVED OUTSIDE
INTERFERENCE CONTINUED TO BE A PROBLEM IN AFGHANISTAN. ZAHIR
SHAH NOTED THAT INTERFERENCE BY IRAN, PAKISTAN, THE UK UNDER
THE TIMES OF BRITISH INDIA, HAD ALWAYS BEEN A PROBLEM FOR
AFGHANISTAN. HE WELCOMED MCGANN'S REFERENCE TO THE
SIX-PLUS-TWO'S REAFFIRMATION OF THE PRINCIPLE OF
NON-INTERFERENCE, BUT SAID IT WOULD HAVE TO BE IMPLEMENTED
AND OBSERVED. RELATIONS WITH IRAN HAD IMPROVED, BUT NOW
SEEMED ON THE BASIS OF REPORTS HE RECEIVED FROM INSIDE
AFGHANISTAN TO BE DETERIORATING AGAIN.


9. (SBU) MCGANN RETURNED TO THE KING'S ROLE IN THE LJ. THE
USG APPRECIATED THE KING'S STATEMENTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF
WOMEN IN AFGHANISTAN'S RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION. IT WAS
VERY IMPORTANT THAT ZAHIR SHAH CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE NEED

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4229

PAGE 01 ROME 01644 03 OF 03 030824Z
ACTION SA-00

INFO LOG-00 MFA-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00
EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00
SAS-00 /007W
-------------- 7E3AFB 030824Z /40
P 030659Z APR 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3067
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ALMATY
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
AMEMBASSY BEIJING
AMEMBASSY BERLIN
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY TASHKENT

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 ROME 01644 03 OF 03 030824Z
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 001644

SIPDIS

ALMATY FOR EMBASSY DUSHANBE
NSC FOR KHALILZHAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2012
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF IT ITPREL ITPREL AFGHANISTAN
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING
OUT ESF GRANT TO ZAHIR SHAH FOUNDATION

FOR WOMEN'S PARTICIPATION. THE KING "AGREED ENTIRELY." HE
THEN REPEATED THE SHOCK HE HAD FELT AT THE TALIBAN'S
DESTRUCTION OF THE BAMIYAN BUDDHAS, A GESTURE WHICH "HURT THE
WHOLE CIVILIZED WORLD." THE BLOWING UP OF THE STATUES WAS
MORE THAN CULTURAL DESTRUCTION, MCGANN ADDED. IT REPRESENTED
INTOLERANCE. THE USG HOPED THE KING WOULD ALSO USE HIS
INFLUENCE TO EMPHASIZE THE NEED FOR TOLERANCE AND RELIGIOUS
FREEDOM. "WE HAVE SO MANY IMPORTANT PROBLEMS TO SOLVE,"
ZAHIR SHAH AGREED. "THAT IS WHY I RETURN, TO ENCOURAGE THAT
THESE PROBLEMS BE SOLVED IN A CIVILIZED WAY." AFGHANS WERE
ALWAYS A TOLERANT PEOPLE, HE EXPLAINED, WHO WERE ONLY MISLED
BY POOR AND INTOLERANT EDUCATION. HE EXPRESSED HOPE THAT HE
COULD HELP TO RECTIFY MISTAKES MADE (UNDER THE TALIBAN
REGIME, ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT SAY SO DIRECTLY.)


10. (SBU) ZAHIR SHAH REITERATED HIS APPRECIATION FOR U.S.
SUPPORT, SAYING THE U.S. "STOOD UP SO OFTEN WHEN THE WORLD
WAS IN DANGER." THE U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN IS
WELCOME; AFGHANS APPRECIATE THOSE WHO ARE FIGHTING AND HAVE
SHED THEIR BLOOD FOR AFGHANISTAN. THE WORK DONE BY YOUNG
AMERICANS IN AFGHANISTAN NOW WILL CREATE EVEN MORE SYMPATHY
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 ROME 01644 03 OF 03 030824Z
AND GOOD WILL AMONG FUTURE GENERATIONS.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------

11. (C) ALTHOUGH THE KING'S REPLIES TO QUESTIONS CONCERNING
HIS FUTURE ROLE WERE SOMEWHAT INDIRECT, THEY REVEALED AN
EVOLUTION IN HIS THINKING TO THE POINT WHERE HE WOULD
SEEMINGLY NOT BE AVERSE TO ASSUMING A ROLE AS HEAD OF STATE.
AND, ALTHOUGH HIS HEALTH AND MIND CONTINUE SOUND, IT IS HARD
TO IMAGINE HIM PHYSICALLY EXERCISING ANYTHING BEYOND A
CEREMONIAL ROLE WITHOUT CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT. IN THIS
MEETING, AS IN OTHERS, HOWEVER, HE UNDERSCORED THAT HIS GOAL
WOULD BE TO SUPPORT AND STRENGTHEN AIA CHAIRMAN KARZAI'S
ROLE, NOT TO SUPERSEDE IT.
SEMBLER

CONFIDENTIAL

>
2002ROME01644 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL