AUTHORITIES ATTEMPT TO BLOCK ASSK IN RAKHINE STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001633

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BM ASSK
SUBJECT: AUTHORITIES ATTEMPT TO BLOCK ASSK IN RAKHINE STATE


Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D).


1. (C) Summary: Authorities have attempted to block
citizens from greeting Aung San Suu Kyi over the last four
days as she toured Rakhine State in western Burma. ASSK has
commended those who have turned out for their bravery and
scolded authorities for threatening instead of serving the
people. The orders to interfere with the visit appear to
have come from the USDA (under Senior General Than Shwe)
while military intelligence (under Secretary One Khin Nyunt)
claims to have no role in these activities. This appears to
be an indication of potentially significant differences
within the regime on how best to manage ASSK's growing public
support. The remaining five days of the trip may give an
idea of which approach will hold sway. End Summary.


2. (U) NLD Secretary U Lwin told Poloff that authorities
have taken actions over the last four days to block citizens
from turning out to see Aung San Suu Kyi as she tours Rakhine
State in western Burma. He said citizens were warned to not
show any support for ASSK when she passed through their
towns, and fire brigade, police, and Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA) members turned out to
discourage anyone who defied the warnings. (Note: The USDA
is a mass organization under the regime's control. End Note)
Still, according to U Lwin, the people did turn out, in
crowds ranging from an estimated 10,000 to 50,000 people,
surprising even the NLD in their determination to see ASSK.
When authorities reacted with riot police and fire trucks,
ASSK intervened, leaving her vehicle, climbing atop a fire
truck, and angrily chiding the authorities for threatening
the people they were supposed to be serving. She commended
the people for their bravery in exercising their rights to
come and listen to her, saying that she continues to work
with the government and the people for positive change in the
country.


3. (C) U Lwin said he provided the above information to
press reporters on December 19 at the request of ASSK, who
was becoming frustrated with the continued harassment by
authorities. He said he had received daily updates from ASSK
on the three previous days on efforts to block her visit and
had transmitted these concerns to Military Intelligence in
Rangoon to no avail. On the fourth day, when yet another
incident occurred, ASSK said it was time for U Lwin to make
the harrassment known to the press. She also asked that he
convey to Military Intelligence reports that USDA Central
Executive Committee Member (and Minister for Post and
Telecommunications, and Hotels and Tourism) Thein Zaw had
come to Rakhine State just prior to her visit and given
instructions that citizens were not to show any support for
ASSK. Interestingly, when U Lwin told Brigadier General Than
Tun, MI's interlocutor with the NLD, about the planned press
conference and Thein Zaw's activities, Than Tun responded
that MI was doing all it could to facilitate ASSK's travels,
that he did know or have control over what Thein Zaw was
doing, and that U Lwin should go ahead with the press
conference. U Lwin said he intentionally chose not to
mention Thein Zaw by name to the press but that they know
that the USDA is playing a leading role in obstructing the
visit.


4. U Lwin attested that MI has been very responsive to the
NLD's requests for support during ASSK's travel. He noted
that they have held roads open for her late at night and
waived document checks at normal checkpoints. He said that
Thein Zaw's actions to prevent citizens from seeing ASSK
appear to be coming from the USDA hierarchy, which ultimately
leads to the Patron of the organization, Senior General Than
Shwe. While U Lwin did not want to speculate on the
significance of MI's effort to distance itself from USDA's
actions in Rakhine State, he did acknowledge that it appeared
to represent a split in how different elements of the SPDC
are reacting to ASSK's travel.


5. We spoke to three NLD Members of Parliament-elect from
Mandalay Division about this incident; all thought it was
extremely positive as it highlighted ASSK's determination to
stand up to repressive measures. They added that her
admonition to local authorities not to thwart democracy and
the peoples' will would resonate well with many public sector
employees. When we asked about potential fallout from the
SPDC, they opined (perhaps naively) that ASSK cannot now be
detained or fettered without risking a major reaction. One
of the MPs-elect said the NLD's statements citing overzealous
local authorities as the cause of the problem might give the
SPDC a way to play down the incident, should they choose to
do so.


6. Comment: Tens of thousands of people in an "ethnic"
state reportedly cheering on ASSK as she faced down security
authorities cannot be a comforting image to the generals in
Rangoon. The apparent lack of communication and coordination
between the USDA hierarchy (under Senior General Than Shwe)
and the MI hierarchy (under Secretary One Khin Nyunt) may be
a telling indicator of differing strategies for dealing with
ASSK and her popular appeal. As the rest of the trip plays
out (she is expected to be on the road for about 5 more days)
we may get a better idea of whether these differences are
fundamental or superficial. End Comment.
Martinez