RUMORED PROMOTIONS IN THE SPDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001218

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINR BM
SUBJECT: RUMORED PROMOTIONS IN THE SPDC

Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D).


1. (C) Summary: News services are reporting that the State
Peace and Development Council has promoted some of its top
generals. Although the SPDC has not officially announced the
promotions, rumors in Rangoon appear to indicate that at
least four of the top Generals may have been promoted. If
true, the promotions would be a further consolidation of
power by Senior General Than Shwe, ensuring control over his
top echelons. It is too early to judge whether this
consolidation of power would indicate that the Senior General
is positioning for continued military control of the country
or if he may be setting the stage for a transition to
civilian government. End Summary.


2. (C) Information provided by Embassy contacts appears to
support reports by Kyodo News and the BBC that the SPDC has
promoted some of its top brass. Although the SPDC has not
announced any promotions, rumors in Rangoon indicate that at
least four of the senior brass may have been promoted;
General Maung Aye has been promoted to Deputy Senior General,
Lt. General Khin Nyunt has been promoted to General, and two
Major Generals, Thura Shwe Mann and Kyaw Win, have been
promoted to Lt. Generals. If these promotions are confirmed,
they will indicate a consolidation of power by Senior General
Than Shwe. Promoting Maung Aye to Deputy Senior General ( a
position that has never existed before) will end speculation
on possible jockeying for position between he and Lt. General
Khin Nyunt. Promoting Khin Nyunt to General, reportedly with
duties as "Military Advisor," will move him up from his
traditional role as head of the country's infamous Military
Intelligence. This may help make him more palatable with the
international community as a regime interlocutor and put to
rest doubts about any lingering allegiance to his mentor,
ex-strongman General Ne Win. Kyaw Win will presumably take
up Khin Nyunt's old position as intelligence chief and Thura
Shwe Mann, who is now Chief of Staff - Army, may move up into
Maung Aye's position of Deputy Commander in Chief of Defense
Services. Both of these Generals are stalwart Than Shwe
supporters. Their positions just below Maung Aye and Khin
Nyunt will keep the latter focused on supporting the Senior
General. If there are any weaknesses, they will know they
could easily be replaced.

Comment


3. (C) Again these promotions are still just rumors at this
point. If they are verified, they are clearly an effort by
Senior General Than Shwe to consolidate his position and
control. It is still too early to judge, however, whether
these moves would indicate his desire to perpetuate military
control of the country or perhaps move slowly toward some
form of civilian control. There is speculation that the SPDC
will have to do something soon to mitigate international
criticism that it has stalled on progress toward dialogue
with the NLD. This consolidation may be part of a strategy
to defray this criticism. That strategy, if it exists, is
not yet clear to Rangoon observers.
Martinez