THE CHANGED FACE OF POLITICAL ISLAM IN SUDAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 00162

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/12;

TAGS: PREL PTER SU
SUBJECT: THE CHANGED FACE OF POLITICAL ISLAM IN SUDAN

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE HAYWOOD RANKIN FOR REASON 1.5 (B-D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE REMOVAL OF TURABI IN 1999 EFFECTED A
REVERSAL IN SUDAN'S POLITICAL APPROACH TOWARD ISLAM, EVEN THOUGH
THE PERSONNEL OF THE REGIME OTHERWISE REMAINED LARGELY IN
PLACE. THE REGIME MAINTAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT CONTROL OVER THE
MOSQUES, IN ORDER TO SUPPRESS RATHER THAN FOMENT ISLAMIC
POLITICAL FERVOR. THE EMPHASIS TODAY IS A RETURN TO A LESS
INTOLERANT ISLAM WHICH STAYS OUT OF POLITICS, WHILE SHARI'A IS
KEPT IN PLACE. THE REGIME'S STALWARTS, WHO WERE SO PASSIONATELY
ISLAMIST A HALF-DECADE AGO, NOW ARE SEIZED BY A WISH TO HOLD ON
TO POWER AND PERSONAL WEALTH, AN OBJECTIVE WHICH THEY SEE AS
ONLY ACHIEVABLE BY DISAVOWING THEIR FORMER ISLAMIC MILITANCY.
THEY STILL FEAR TURABI, WHICH IS WHY HIS HOUSE ARREST HAS BEEN
RECENTLY EXTENDED. END SUMMARY

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TURABI'S REMOVAL BRINGS A SEA CHANGE
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2. (C) THE WORDS AND ACTIONS OF THE RULING REGIME IN SUDAN ARE
TODAY HUGELY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT THEY WERE A FEW YEARS AGO. THE
TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN RAPID ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM.
HOW PROFOUND AND LASTING IS THE TRANSFORMATION? IS IT "REAL"?
WILL SOME CABAL OF HARDLINERS WITHIN THE REGIME (FOR EXAMPLE,
THE ARMY) REGAIN CONTROL AND SHIFT IT SUDDENLY BACK TO THE
MILITANCY OF THE FIRST DECADE OF THE REGIME?


3. (C) NO ONE CAN ANSWER SUCH QUESTIONS WITH COMPLETE
CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LONG ENOUGH LAPSE OF TIME --
NEARLY THREE YEARS -- SINCE HASAN AL-TURABI'S REMOVAL AS
SPRITIAL LEADER OF THE REGIME TO CONCLUDE THAT HIS REMOVAL HAD A
MUCH MORE PROFOUND EFFECT THAN COULD BE GENERALLY IMAGINED.
NOWHERE IS THIS MORE EVIDENT THAN IN THE MODERATION BEING
INTEGRATED INTO THE PUBLIC GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED PROPAGATION OF
ISLAM.


4. (C) DISCONTENT WITH THE DIRECTION TURABI WAS TAKING SUDAN --
DISCONTENT WITHIN THE REGIME ITSELF, NOT TO MENTION IN SUDANESE
SOCIETY GENERALLY -- HAD BEEN MOUNTING FOR SOME YEARS. INDEED,
IT HAD BEEN LATENT FROM THE INCEPTION OF THE COUP THAT BROUGHT
THE REGIME TO POWER. BUT IT WAS TURABI'S REMOVAL AND EVENTUAL
HOUSE ARREST THAT FREED THE REGIME TO REVERSE COURSE.


5. (C) TURABI WAS UNIQUE IN SUDANESE RELIGIOUS AND POLITICAL
SOCIETY. HIS UNIQUENESS LAY IN HIS COMBINATION OF PASSIONATE
ISLAMIST IDEALISM AND EXTRAORDINARY ABILITY TO PERSUADE AND
MOBILIZE FOLLOWERS. INDEED, HE WAS UNIQUE IN ARAB SOCIETY WRIT
LARGE. HE NEVER OCCUPIED THE PRESIDENCY, THE OFFICE FROM WHICH
MOST ARAB OR AFRICAN POTENTATES EXERCISE WIDE POWER, AND HE WAS
ABLE NOT ONLY TO BRING THE REGIME UNDER HIS SPELL, BUT GIVE
SUDAN -- AN IMPOVERISHED, PARTIALLY UNGOVERNABLE, ISOLATED,AND
MARGINAL STATE -- A MALEFICENT INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE ARAB
WORLD. APPARENTLY, THERE IS NO ONE TO TAKE HIS PLACE, INSIDE OR
OUTSIDE THE REGIME. THE REGIME'S CONTINUED FEAR OF TURABI WAS
DEMONSTRATED AUGUST 18 WHEN HIS HOUSE ARREST ON FLIMSY CHARGES
(SIGNING AN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUDAN PEOPLE'S LIBERATION
MOVEMENT, OF ALL THINGS) WAS EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER YEAR. THE
ANNOUNCEMENT MADE CLEAR THAT THIS EXTENSION WAS INFINITELY
RENEWABLE.

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PRAGMATISM, OR CORRUPTION, PREVAILS
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6. (C) AS SOMEONE ONCE SAID, POWER CORRUPTS. AS IN ALL AFRICAN
AND ARAB SOCIETIES, GOVERNMENT IS THE MEANS BY WHICH WEALTH IS
ACHIEVED AND DISTRIBUTED. TURABI UNCEASINGLY SOUGHT TO
CONSOLIDATE HIS CONTROL, TO MAXIMIZE HIS POLITICAL POWER, JUST
AS MEMBERS OF THE REGIME WERE AMASSING WEALTH AND GETTING TO BE
VERY FOND OF THEIR WEALTH AND STATUS. THE WRITING WAS ON THE
WALL FOR THE LEADER OF THE COUP HIMSELF, PRESIDENT BASHIR. HE
HAD TO ACT, AND HE FOUND IN TAKING ACTION AGAINST TURABI THAT
THE TIDES WITHIN THE REGIME WERE RUNNING AGAINST TURABI AND NOT
HIMSELF.


7. (C) TURABI WOULD HAVE WON THAT STRUGGLE IF HIS ERSTWHILE
FOLLOWERS WITHIN THE REGIME HAD BELIEVED HIS VISION WOULD KEEP
THEM IN POWER. THEY KNEW PERFECTLY WELL THAT NO DEMOCRATIC
ELECTION WOULD HAVE PUT HIM OR THEM IN POWER, BUT THEY ALSO KNEW
THAT SUCH POPULARLITY OR ACCEPTANCE AS THE REGIME HAD HAD IN
SUDANESE SOCIETY WAS DIMINISHING, NOT INCREASING. AN IMPORTANT
ELEMENT OF RISING DISCONTENT WAS THE REGIME'S ISLAMIC
STRINGENCY, BY WHICH THE REGIME HAD NOT ONLY INTERJECTED
RELIGIOUS RIGIDITY INTO DAILY LIFE BUT HAD ALSO DEEPENED CIVIL
WAR AND BROUGHT THE COUNTRY INTO LOGGERHEADS WITH MOST OF ITS
NEIGHBORS, NOT TO MENTION MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORLD. THE
STRICTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE APPLICATION OF ISLAMIC LAW
CONFLICTED WITH SUDAN'S TRADITIONAL SUFISM, AND THE DEEPENING OF
CIVIL WAR AND INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION BROUGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER.


8. (C) TURABI BUCKED MANY OF HIS FOLLOWERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF KHARTOUM (WHERE TURABI CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRONG FOLLOWING)
AND SENT THEM ABROAD TO THE WEST, ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES,
FOR POLISHING. THEY NOW FORM A KEY PART OF THE GOVERNMENT AND
ECONOMIC ELITE, AND THEY OFTEN IMPRESS WESTERNERS WITH THEIR
COMMAND OF ENGLISH, THEIR CIVILITY, AND THE EASE WITH WHICH THEY
RELATE TO WESTERNERS. TURABI APPARENTLY WAS NOT AFRAID THAT
THEY WOULD BE CORRUPTED AND LOSE THEIR ISLAMIC FERVOR, BUT IN
THIS HE WAS ONLY PARTIALLY RIGHT. THEY MAY HAVE COME BACK
WITHOUT HAVING LOST PERSONAL ISLAMIC DEVOUTNESS -- SOME WERE NO
DOUBT MADE EVEN MORE DEVOUT BY WHAT THEY SAW IN THE WEST -- BUT
THEY ALSO PICKED UP A LIKING OF THE GOOD LIFE AND A DOSE OF
WESTERN PRAGMATISM, WHICH DULLED THE EDGE OF THEIR ENTHUSIASM
FOR TURABI'S BRAND OF POLITICIZED ISLAM THAT HAD LED TO WAR,
ISOLATION, AND ECONOMIC DOLDRUMS.

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SHARI'A AND DEVOUTNESS
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9. (C) THE BASHIR REGIME WANTS TO HOLD ON TO SHARI'A LAW AND A
CONSERVATIVE INTERNAL APPROACH TO ISLAM, AND IN THIS INSISTENCE
IT PROBABLY IS NOT AT VARIANCE WITH A MAJORITY,OR AT LEAST A
LARGE SEGMENT, OF THE NORTHERN SUDANESE POPULATION. AFTER ALL,
ARAB SOCIETY GENERALLY, FROM MOROCCO TO OMAN, HAS BECOME MORE
CONSERVATIVE OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS -- MORE TURNED INWARD
INTO ITSELF, LESS WILLING TO TRY WESTERN IDEAS. THE SAUDI MODEL
OF STRINGENT ISLAM WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO KEEP OUT OF POLITICS IS
TO SOME EXTENT THE IDEA TO WHICH THE REGIME NOW ASPIRES TO
FOLLOW. MILLIONS OF SUDANESE HAVE WORKED IN SAUDI ARABIA OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DECADES, AND THE SAUDIS HAVE POURED MONEY INTO
THE COUNTRY, IN THEIR INIMITABLE FASHION, TO BUILD HUNDREDS AND
THOUSANDS OF MOSQUES (EMPHASIS BEING MOSQUES OVER SCHOOLS,
HOSPITALS, AND THE LIKE). YET THE SUDANESE PERSONALITY REMAINS
PROFOUNDLY DIFFERENT FROM THE SAUDI, AS DIFFERENT AS SUFISM IS
FROM WAHHABISM. THE KEY TO THE DIFFERENCE -- OR AT LEAST ONE
KEY -- IS THE SUFI EMPHASIS ON MINDING ONE'S OWN BUSINESS:
SUFISM IS ALL ABOUT LOOKING INTO ONE'S OWN SOUL,
SELF-PURIFICATION, LEADING BY EXAMPLE, AND NOT WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT ONE'S NEIGHBOR. THUS ARE THE SUDANESE FAMOUS FOR THEIR
HUMILITY, SIMILAR TO THE OMANIS, ANOTHER PEOPLE REPUGNED BY THE
SAUDIS AND FAMOUS FOR THEIR ABILITY TO BE DEVOUT AND RELATIVELY
TOLERANT AT THE SAME TIME. IT WAS ALL THE MORE AMAZING THAT
SUDAN SHOULD HAVE PRODUCED ONE OF THE ARAB WORLD'S MOST
CHARISMATIC FIREBRANDS.


9. (C) IF THE REGIME RETAINS SHARI'A LAW AND KEEPS ITS
CONSERVATIVE VISION OF ISLAM TO THE NONPOLITICAL REALM, IT WILL
THUS ONLY BE FOLLOWING AN INCREASINGLY CONSERVATIVE COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN WIDELY FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD, AND ONE THAT
IS LIKELY TO BE ACCEPTABLE WITHIN SUDANESE SOCIETY, EVEN IF IT
IS SOMEWHAT MORE INTRUSIVE THAN WAS TRADITIONAL SUDANESE SUFI
ISLAM. THE DIVERSITY OF SUDANESE SOCIETY AND THE PRESENCE OF
MILLIONS OF NON-MUSLIM SUDANESE IN KHARTOUM, DISPLACED BY WAR
AND FAMINE -- A PATTERN LIKELY TO BE ONLY PARTIALLY ABATED BY A
PEACE AGREEMENT -- CUTS BOTH WAYS: IT SEEMS TO MAKE SOME
MUSLIMS MORE OPEN-MINDED BY EXPOSING THEM TO NON-MUSLIM
APPROACHES TO LIFE (JUST AS OMANI SOCIETY WAS SOFTENED BY LONG
EXPOSURE TO AFRICA AND ASIA),BUT FOR OTHERS, IT CAUSES A MORE
STEADFAST WITHDRAWAL INTO THE CIRCLE OF ISLAM. HOW TOLERANT THE
FACE OF SUDANESE ISLAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE WILL DEPEND ON
LEADERSHIP OF THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY IN THE POST-PEACE ERA, BUT
THE INDICATORS ARE THAT THE PENDULUM IS SWINGING BACK IN THE
DIRECTION OF LESS INTOLERANCE.

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CONTROLLING THE MOSQUES
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10. (C) ONCE YOU OPEN PANDORA'S BOX, IT'S NOT SO EASY TO
CLOSE. TURABI USED A SERIES OF STRATEGIC MOSQUES IN KHARTOUM
AND OTHER LARGE TOWNS TO CONVEY HIS MESSAGE. HE POLITICIZED
THEM. THE BASHIR REGIME IS NOW FACED WITH THE CHALLENGE OF
PUTTING THE GENIE WHICH TURABI RELEASED BACK INTO ITS BOX. ON
THIS ISSUE IT APPEARS TO BE PARTICULARLY DETERMINED -- ODD AS IT
MAY SEEM THAT A REGIME ONCE RENOWNED FOR ITS ISLAMIC FERVOR NOW
TAKES PARTICULAR PAINS TO CONTROL THE MECHANISM THROUGH WHICH
ISLAM IS PRACTICED. THE MOSQUES ARE THE KEY PLACES OF
ASSEMBLAGE IN SUDANESE SOCIETY, THE FOCAL POINTS IN EVERY MUSLIM
NEIGHBORHOOD AND VILLAGE. THE MESSAGES OF THE IMAMS, DAY AFTER
DAY, WEEK AFTER WEEK, HAVE PROFOUND INFLUENCE ONTHE MINDS OF THE
POPULACE. AS FAR AS WE CAN JUDGE, THOSE MESSAGES ARE RIGOROUSLY
FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY -- AND ESPECIALLY IN THOSE KEY
BUT RELATIVELY FEW MOSQUES POLITICIZED BY TURABI -- BY THE
SECURITY SERVICES. THE MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS HAS VETO
OVER THE PLACEMENT OF IMAMS IN ALL MOSQUES, AND IT HAS INDEED
REPLACED SEVERAL IMAMS. THE RESULT APPARENTLY IS THAT RELIGIOUS
MESSAGES WHICH THE POPULACE IS HEARING TODAY DIFFERER MARKEDLY
FROM WHAT THEY WERE HEARING ONLY A FEW YEARS AGO, WHEN TURABI
STILL HELD SWAY. DOWN WITH AMERICA AND SPREAD THE GOSPEL,
JIHAD, VICTORY, AND MARTYRDOM HAVE GIVEN WAY TO THE MORE
TRADITIONAL STUFF OF LOOKING AFTER YOUR OWN SOUL AND DOING GOOD
TO OTHERS. THIS SUDANESE REGIME IS NO DIFFERENT FROM MOST OTHER
REGIMES IN THE MUSLIM WORLD IN WANTING TO EXERCISE CAREFUL
CONTROL OVER RELIGION, BUT -- PERHAPS IN PART FOR THE VERY
REASON THAT IT STARTED OFF AS AN "ISLAMIC FRONT" AND KNOWS
BETTER WHEREOF IT SPEAKS, AND KNOWS MORE INTIMATELY WHAT IT
FEARS -- IT SEEMS TO BE SUCCEEDING BETTER THAN MOST.


RANKIN