PM'S PARTY REVOLTS ON EMERGENCY VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000995

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2012
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: PM'S PARTY REVOLTS ON EMERGENCY VOTE

REF: KATHMANDU 968

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5(B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) At a May 22 Central Working Committee (CWC) meeting,
members of the ruling Nepali Congress voted to direct Prime
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to withdraw his proposal for a
six-month extension of the state of national emergency
(Reftel). At COB the CWC decision was being debated in a
Parliamentary Party meeting where Deuba appears to have more
support. If Deuba chooses to defy the CWC directive and
pursue extension of the emergency tomorrow, he (and members
of his Cabinet) could be expelled from the party. The move
prompts a direct and potentially destructive show-down
between Deuba and his long-time rival, former PM and Nepali
Congress President G.P. Koirala, one day before debate on the
extension of the emergency begins in Parliament May 23. End
summary.

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CWC MEETING
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2. (SBU) At a May 22 meeting chaired by former Prime
Minister and Party President G.P. Koirala, members of the
Central Working Committee (CWC) of the ruling Nepali Congress
Party decided to instruct Prime Minister Deuba to withdraw
from the Parliamentary Secretariat his Government's proposal
to extend the state of national emergency for an additional
six months (Reftel). Only seven members of the CWC,
including the PM himself and several Ministers, voted against
the decision. Debate on extension of the emergency is set to
begin May 23. The emergency will expire May 26 unless a
two-thirds majority in Parliament votes to extend it.

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PARLIAMENTARY PARTY MEETING
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3. (C) The CWC meeting was immediately followed by a
Parliamentary Party meeting that was continuing well after
COB May 22. According to MP Narayan Singh Pun, support for
the two rival camps is more evenly balanced in the
Parliamentary Party Committee; he estimated that Deuba might
even have a slight edge over Koirala. Neither side seems
prepared to back down, Pun said. If the Parliamentary Party
meeting is unable to come to a decision about the CWC
directive, the matter will likely be referred to the Cabinet.


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LETTER RILES PM
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4. (C) The showdown in the CWC meeting was foreshadowed a
day previously when Nepali Congress General Secretary Sushil
Koirala sent Deuba a letter demanding "clarification" of his
bid to extend the emergency. Before a May 21 briefing on
counter-insurgency and conflict mitigation efforts by USAID
consultants Dr. Scott Palmer and Dr. Tom Marks at the PM's
residence, Deuba complained indignantly to the Ambassador
about the letter, which alleged the PM had bypassed the party
in putting the proposal to extend the emergency before the
Parliamentary Secretariat. Such charges were patently false,
Deuba said, adding that he himself had gone to the Party
President's house upon his return from the U.S. and the U.K.
to brief him on his visit and to consult with him about
extending the emergency. The former PM had raised no
objection at the time, according to Deuba, and had even
seemed sympathetic to the need for the extension. Deuba
viewed the letter as just another example of G.P.'s numerous
attempts to gain political mileage at his rival's expense.
The letter further annoyed Deuba because it implied that the
Army Chief "pressured" the PM to call for an extension, he
noted. The Chief of Army Staff, present at the Ambassador's
meeting with the PM, caustically corrected Deuba by saying
the Nepali word actually translated as "forced." That was
not at all true, Deuba maintained; the security chiefs had
only briefed him on the situation and left him to make his
own decision.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) If Deuba does indeed have a majority among Nepali
Congress MPs, the Koirala camp will be unable to bring a vote
of no confidence against the PM. At the same time, if Deuba
defies the CWC and continues pursuing extension of the
emergency, he (and members of his Cabinet) risk expulsion
from the party, which could have serious implications for the
longevity of his government. With both sides apparently
unprepared to back down, none of the possible outcomes of
this grim scenario--the dissolution of Parliament, a split in
the Party--is particularly appealing. Just back from highly
visible visits to the U.S. and U.K., with pledges of
international support to defeat the Maoists in hand, Deuba
was riding high and likely anticipated little difficulty in
getting the emergency--which most sectors of society agree
has done much to improve security in the country--extended.
Koirala has been angling to replace his long-time rival
almost since the day Deuba got the prime ministership from
him last July. Why Koirala should pick this particular
moment to force a confrontation--just as the Government seems
to be getting on track against the insurgency--might defy
common logic but makes perfect sense to those who know him.
Koirala's divisiveness might undermine the national interest
but serves his personal interest quite well.
MALINOWSKI