ARMY SCORES INTELLIGENCE, PR VICTORY IN ATTACK ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000882

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2012
TAGS: PTER MCAP PGOV NP
SUBJECT: ARMY SCORES INTELLIGENCE, PR VICTORY IN ATTACK ON
MAOIST CAMP

REF: KATHMANDU 872

Classified By: A/DCM MICHAEL HOZA. REASON: 1.5(B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Royal Nepal Army (RNA) troops have been engaged since
late May 2 in an attack on what may be a major Maoist
logistics base in Lisne Lek, Rolpa District in western Nepal.
According to the RNA, the Maoists, who have sustained at
least 100 casualties, are attempting to withdraw from the
area in small groups, without engaging government troops.
The RNA is still conducting blocking operations and expects
to recover a significant number of weapons previously stolen
by the insurgents from the security forces in previous
attacks. The RNA attack was prompted by information on the
camp's location from a local villager--the first time, to our
knowledge, the army has proven able to act on intelligence so
successfully. Reports of the attack--and positive reaction
from Parliamentarians invited to visit the relevant RNA
division headquarters--are giving the Government of Nepal
(GON) and the RNA a timely public relations boost just as
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba prepares to meet President
Bush in Washington May 7. End summary.

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FIGHTING IN ROLPA CONTINUES
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2. (SBU) Fighting between Royal Nepal Army (RNA) troops and
Maoist insurgents at what appears to be a major Maoist
logistics base in Lisne Lek, Rolpa District, continued for
the fourth day today (Reftel),according to Director of
Military Operations Brig. Gen. Pradeep Malla. Malla
reiterated that information, conveyed from the field in
western Nepal by radio, remains sketchy. At least 100
insurgents have been confirmed dead, Malla asserted; blood
trails and RNA rounds fired are pushing RNA estimates of
Maoist dead past the 300 mark, however. (Note: Local press
reports on May 6 noted that only 15 bodies had been recovered
thus far. End note.) Only three RNA soldiers and one
civilian policeman have been killed in the fighting to date.
Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Pyar Jung Thapa told the
Ambassador late May 4 that he believed Maoist casualties were
between 350 to 400.


3. (C) According to Malla, the RNA first learned the
location of the site from a local villager, who reported
insurgents gathering in the jungle with food supplies,
weapons, and water buffalo. On May 2 three platoons from the
4th Brigade in Surkhet District were dispatched toward the
area from three different sides. Insurgents fired on one of
the platoons, forcing it to withdraw to a 6,000-foot
elevation (Reftel). A local journalist said RNA sources had
told him the Maoists fired with machine guns and SLRs
captured from the RNA during the attacks on RNA bases at Dang
and Achham. The platoon was encircled, and the Maoists began
launching human wave attacks, firing weapons and throwing
pipe bombs, in an apparent attempt to get the RNA to use up
its ammunition. The soldiers could hear the Maoist
commanders ordering the cadre forward by megaphone. The RNA
source said the encircled platoon selectively picked off the
attackers in the human wave, instead of wasting ammunition in
long bursts of firing. Members of the platoon estimated they
saw at least 350 bodies of insurgents in the vicinity.


4. (C) Later that night, the platoon retreated from the
elevation to a more defensible position. Some reinforcements
arrived the morning of May 3, but when the reinforced company
went back up the hill, the piles of bodies seen the night
before had disappeared. There was evidence of bodies having
been dragged through the underbrush, according to the source.
Malla reported further reinforcements (about 200 troops)
reached the area mid-day May 4. At present, Malla said, the
Maoists are generally not fighting back, but are instead
attemtping to retreat from the densely forested area in
groups of two or three, likely in an effort to re-consolidate
personnel and weapons in another location. The RNA is still
establishing blocking positions in an effort to interdict the
retreating insurgents. He could offer no figure on the
possible number of Maoist prisoners captured thus far.
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MAJOR BASE?
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5. (C) Malla said the villager's information had helped the
RNA stumble upon what seems to have been a major logistics
base for the Maoists. Troops in the area have discovered
1,000 dishes and plates cached in the jungle, he reported, as
well as other cooking gear, bunkers, and houses with
(presumably Maoist) families living in them, indicating that
the area was used as a large staging area for the insurgents.
The RNA anticipates being able to recapture from the area at
least half of the weapons stolen from Army and police in
previous Maoist attacks, Malla said, without explaining the
basis for this estimate. He speculated that the insurgents
were likely staging for a major attack--possibly on district
headquarters in Rolpa--in the near future. The RNA's
aggressive action had pre-empted the planned strike, he noted
with satisfaction. Lt. Gen. Thapa also believes that the
Maoists had assembled in number in advance of a planned major
attack.

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MORALE BOOST
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6. (C) The good news trickling out of Rolpa seems to have
given the beleaguered Government of Nepal (GON) a significant
morale boost just as Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba
prepares to meet President Bush in Washington May 7. A local
journalist who attended a speech given by the often less than
fully articulate Prime Minister May 3 in Kathmandu said he
had not seen Deuba so forceful and confident in his public
comments--in which he discounted prospects for peace talks
until the Maoists lay down their arms--since his early days
as a freedom fighter, before Panchayat regime torture
permanently damaged his tongue. Also atypical was the RNA's
decision to invite 17 Members of Parliament for a tour,
escorted by CGS Gen. Thapa, of some of the western division's
area of operations May 5. (Note: The idea of inviting the
politicians had been first suggested to the RNA by the
Ambassador. End note.) The tour was apparently well
received by both ruling and Opposition MPs, who were quoted
in the local press voicing (equally atypical) praise for the
RNA's efforts. Embassy DATT suggested to Malla that the RNA
invite the press corps and resident DATTs on a tour of the
site once the battle concludes; Malla agreed.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Although details of the engagement remain hazy, the
verdict from the local press, the GON, and the RNA is that
the Army has scored a significant victory. From what we can
tell right now, we would agree. While the casualty count
sounds a bit skewed, the real significance of this battle
lies not in the number of Maoists killed or captured, or even
in the volume of weapons the RNA (perhaps optimistically)
expects to recover, but in several other factors. With this
engagement, the RNA has proven that it can react to reliable
intelligence to seize the initiative from the insurgents.
The villager's willingness to volunteer the information can
only count as a major breakthrough in the ongoing battle for
hearts and minds. The RNA's invitation to Paliamentarians,
coupled with a possible follow-up invitation to the press
corps, demonstrates the army's evolving awareness of the
importance of public relations to the success of their
efforts--also a signficant breakthrough. Finally, the
Maoists' response to the RNA initiative is also instructive.
In the past, the insurgents have typically chosen their own
battle sites, launching surprise attacks on police or army
locked in static positions, such as a barracks or police
post. That the insurgents are apparently electing to retreat
when surprised in the field indicates that they are likely
unable to engage the RNA in a meeting encounter. It is too
soon to tell if the RNA has turned the corner in this fight,
but the signs so far are encouraging.
MALINOWSKI