PROMISES MADE IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000485

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
MUMBAI FOR GOOD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL NEPAL'>NP
SUBJECT: PROMISES MADE IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT:
OPPOSITION, FORMER PM PRESS DEUBA TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON
COMMITMENTS

REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 0412

B. (B) 01 KATHMANDU 2503

Classified By: POL/ECON PMAHONEY. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).


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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In the days since Opposition parties, along with
former Prime Minister and current NEPALi Congress Party
President Girija Prasad Koirala, decided to vote with or
support the Government of NEPAL (GON) to ratify the state of
emergency (Ref A),Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is
finding out--if he ever doubted--that winning the support of
his long-time rivals may not come cheap. Opposition Leader
Madhav NEPAL, along with his strange new bedfellow Koirala,
are joining unlikely ranks to push Deuba to follow through on
the commitments he made to consider amending the constitution
to set up a national government during elections and to
prosecute corruption. Besides teaming up with the
Opposition, Koirala is also busily forming several new
committees within the Congress Party--one of which may play a
key role in selecting MP candidates for the next election.
End summary.

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NC AND UML: TOGETHER AT LAST?
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2. (SBU) Since supporting the Government of NEPAL (GON) in
the Feb. 21 late-night vote to ratify the state of emergency
(Ref A),Opposition Leader Madhav NEPAL and former Prime
Minister and current NEPALi Congress Party President Girija
Prasad Koirala have been pressing Prime Minister Sher Bahadur
Deuba to follow through on commitments he made during his
speech in Parliament that day, including a possible
constitutional amendment and more vigorous prosecution of
corruption. On Feb. 28, the PM sent a letter to heads of the
five largest political parties, soliciting their opinions on
amending the Constitution.


3. (C) The Communist Party of NEPAL - United Marxist
Leninist (UML),the largest Opposition party, is advocating
several amendments, including a measure establishing an
all-party caretaker government during national elections; a
provision to establish an all-party government during
national emergencies; and a limit on the size of the Cabinet.
The official position of the UML, which has not had a Prime
Minister since 1995, is that only the establishment of an
all-party government can ensure free and fair elections.
Hari Sharma, a close advisor to the former PM, confirmed that
Koirala signed an agreement with the UML leadership on both
the Opposition's 22-point reform program, including proposals
for Constitutional amendments, and Koirala's proposal for a
broader national alliance (now being termed a "Broader
Democratic Alliance") (Ref B) before the debate on
ratification. The two party leaders signed a second
agreement just a few days ago, Sharma added, that details how
to proceed with the issues outlined in the earlier agreement,
including cooperation on political reform; decentralization
of local government; depoliticization of the bureaucracy; and
the development of a common agenda to strengthen the Prime
Ministerial system, which, apparently, they consider to have
been vitiated during Deuba's tenure. Sharma remarked with
some surprise at both UML and NEPALi Congress efforts to keep
the text of the agreements "secret"--even though some hints
have appeared in the local press.

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CORRUPTION COMMISSION--AGAIN
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4. (U) But constitutional amendments are not the only area
where Koirala and the UML are finding common cause to
prod--and to criticize--the GON. In their remarks during the
ratification debate (Ref A),both Koirala and Madhav NEPAL
castigated Deuba for failing to curb corruption. On March 4
the Cabinet announced the formation of a judicial commission
to investigate the assets of high-ranking GON employees since

1990. (Note: By some estimates in the press, the number of
individuals to be investigated numbers well over 10,000. End
note.) King Gyanendra will appoint the three members of the
Commission, the mandate of which extends for six months. The
Judicial Council has recommended Supreme Court Justice
Krishna Jung Rayamaji to chair the new Commission.
Opposition politicians greeted the announcement with guarded
enthusiasm, many of them noting the formation of at least
four previous commissions with similar mandates, the
recommendations of which have never been acted upon.


5. (C) Some sources identify King Gyanendra as the real
impetus for this newest commission. According to these
accounts, the King called in the Prime Minister and, citing
sharp criticism from donors at the February 4-7 NEPAL
Development Forum about corruption and the lack of good
governance and Secretary of State Powell's own remarks during
his January 18-19 visit, directed Deuba to do something quick
to clean up the GON's act. One source contends that the
Cabinet's original terms of reference for the Commission
limited its mandate to the investigation of corruption "from
now onwards"--a draft that was quickly rejected by the King.


6. (C) Dr. Devendra Raj Pandey, the head of Transparency
International in NEPAL, told poloff he is skeptical that the
recommendations of this new and hypothetically improved
commission will fare any differently from those of its
numerous predecessors. The Constitution calls for and the
GON has already established a standing anti-corruption
watchdog Commission (Commission for Investigation of the
Abuse of Authority) whose members are appointed by the King,
Pandey observed, and whose findings and recommendations are
largely ignored by an easily influenced judiciary.
Repeatedly forming and re-forming multiple commissions could
be avoided, he said, if at least one of those bodies were
sufficiently empowered to make its recommendations stick.
Unfortunately, he remarked pessimistically, corruption is so
widespread that any given target of a probe has enough "dirt"
on everyone else--or on the key allies of others--to
discourage the zealous pursuit of investigations. Moreover,
he added, the Commission's terms of reference are ambiguous.
The word "corruption" is never mentioned in its mandate--only
a call for the examination of personal assets. The new
commission is only window-dressing and will lead nowhere, he
predicted, because the political will just isn't there.


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AND MORE CONGRESS COMMITTEES
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7. (C) On February 26, Koirala also set up--and hand-picked
the members for--a Parliamentary Committee and a nine-person
Central Working Implementation Committee within the party
without consulting the Central Working Committee. How
exactly the leaner, meaner CWIC will differ from the Central
Working Committee--which enjoys considerably broader
representation from the party's different factions--is
unclear. NC General Secretary Sushil Koirala explained that
the new CWIC will meet during "emergencies," or when there is
not enough time to call a Central Working Committee meeting.
Considerable suspicion lingers, however, that the new
committees' real role will be to choose the party's nominees
for MP during the next general election--thereby ensuring
that only Koirala's candidates are on the ticket. Deuba and
his mentor, former PM K.P. Bhattarai, did not show up at the
Parliamentary Committee's first meeting on March 4, which
nominated a candidate for a newly vacant seat in the Upper
House. Political wags and the local media immediately
deduced Deuba, resenting his rival's closed-door selection of
membership of these two committees, boycotted the meeting.


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EMERGENCY, BUT NOT DEUBA, CRITICIZED
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8. (C) While he is apparently keeping busy forming
closed-door committees and cooperating with the Opposition in
private, Koirala has recently muted his usually vocal
criticism of Deuba in public. In a Feb. 27 meeting with the
Ambassador, Koirala described his relations with the GON as
good, while lamenting in the same breath that the GON
consistently fails to provide him and others in the party
leadership adequate information about the state of affairs in
the nation. Instead, he relies on grass-roots party
activists to get a real handle on the security situation
outside of Kathmandu. "I don't like this emergency," Koirala
told the Ambassador, adding that he voted to ratify because
he recognized the nation is in a difficult position. He said
his party has completed a report that criticizes the GON's
handling of the emergency and cites numerous human rights
abuses since its imposition. Human rights abuses will only
lead to the creation of more Maoists, Koirala observed. His
own party's ability to conduct legitimate activities and hold
meetings has been sharply curtailed since November 26, he
complained. He said he had told the Prime Minister to
restore civil liberties to average people "so that we can
isolate them from the Maoists."


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COMMENT
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9. (C) Deuba is under obvious pressure from both the
Opposition and political rivals within his own party to
follow through on commitments made during the ratification
debate. So far at least, he is going through the motions of
that follow-through. In the grim aftermath of the bloody
Maoist attacks in Achham, Koirala may have decided that
continuing his near-daily broadside attacks against Deuba in
public might be viewed as unseemly--even unpatriotic--by
some, and do nothing to further his seemingly tireless quest
to regain the prime ministership. But his atypical quietness
in public should not be mistaken for a lack of activity in
private. With a few judicious press leaks here and there,
Koirala is letting it be known widely enough that he is not
letting up on his rival. What the proposed constitutional
amendments will do to address the urgent needs of the
nation--an end to an increasingly violent insurgency; help
for a crippled economy; jobs for a burgeoning generation of
young people--is apparently beside the point.


10. (C) Comment continued: A proliferation of toothless
anti-corruption Commissions (especially a three-person team
suposed to investigate the assets of thousands of public
employees in just six months) is unlikely to convince anyone
that the GON is serious about tackling corruption. Instead
of spinning its wheels forming new, equally ineffective
Commissions, the GON should focus instead on giving just one
of them--probably the Constitutionally sanctioned Commission
for the Investigation of the Abuse of Authority--the
wherewithal to have its findings enforced.
MALINOWSKI