NEPALI PARLIAMENT CONVENES FOR WINTER SESSION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000333

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: NP PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: NEPALI PARLIAMENT CONVENES FOR WINTER SESSION

REF: (A) KATHMANDU 0184; (B) KATHMANDU 2503;

(C) 01 KATHMANDU 2302

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The Winter Session of Parliament convened Feb.
10 amid widespread expectations that the Lower House
will ratify the state of national emergency declared
November 26, allowing its continuation for another three
months. A vote on the emergency must take place before
Feb. 22. Preoccupation with the emergency--and
political grandstanding against Prime Minister Deuba's
handling of the Maoist insurgency--may put off
consideration of a number of important pieces of
legislation left pending from last year's Winter
Session, including a long-awaited anti-corruption bill.
End summary.

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WINTER SESSION TO TAKE UP EMERGENCY
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2. (U) The Winter Session of Parliament that convened
Feb. 10 faces a particularly busy schedule. First on
the docket of the two-month session, MPs will have to
address whether or not to ratify the state of national
emergency declared November 26 by King Gyanendra after a
series of violent Maoist attacks that unilaterally broke
a four-month ceasefire. At least two-thirds of the MPs
in the Lower House must vote by Feb. 22 in favor of the
emergency for it to continue for an additional three
months. (Note: At the end of those additional three
months, Parliament may then vote to extend the emergency
for an another six months. End note.)


3. (SBU) Deuba, whose Nepali Congress Party holds 113
seats in the 205-seat Lower House, will need the support
of the Communist Party of Nepal United Marxist-Leninist
(UML),which holds 69 seats, to get the two-thirds
majority necessary to uphold the emergency. In spite of
occasional public sniping from the larger Opposition
parties--and an apparent ongoing sub rosa campaign to
oust Prime Minister Deuba by his own Party President and
long-time rival G. P. Koirala (Ref B)--most observers
expect Deuba will ultimately get the votes he needs.


4. (U) In his opening address to the new Session,
Deuba asserted that although security forces have made
significant progress since November 26 in combating the
insurgency, more time is needed. He urged the MPs to
ratify the emergency for another three months. The
immediate task is to disarm the Maoists, he said; only
then might the resumption of talks with the insurgents
be possible. Response from the Opposition was generally
noncommittal, although UML Leader Madhav Nepal offered
vague indications of support under certain, generally
unlikely conditions, including the amendment of the
Constitution to allow a national government. Leaders of
the three small left-wing parties, which together
command a total of eight seats in the Lower House,
confirmed, on the other hand, that their parties will
not ratify the emergency.


5. (SBU) Of perhaps even greater concern to the PM than
garnering the Opposition's support may be rumblings from
within his own Nepali Congress Party leadership.
Reports persist that supporters of former PM and Party
President G.P. Koirala have launched a petition campaign
calling for Deuba's resignation. One "Koirala camp" MP,
while stopping short of confirming the rumor, recently
assured poloff vehemently that support for Deuba within
the party--and for ratification of the emergency--is
rapidly eroding. But Ram Chandra Poudel, a Nepali
Congress Central Committee member and former Deputy
Prime Minister under Koirala, told poloff he suspects
reports of surging support for Koirala are wildly
exaggerated, primarily by none other than Koirala
himself. Instead, Poudel said his own discussions with
Nepali Congress MPs reveal that most view any move to
dump Deuba now as posing a serious and untimely threat
to the stability of the country. Thus, most are
"resisting the Party President's request" for support.

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OTHER NON-EMERGENCY BUSINESS
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6. (U) Since an Opposition boycott pre-empted much of
the Winter Session the previous year, many bills
originally scheduled for action in the first half of
2001 were left pending in legislative limbo until the
current session. Some observers fear that preoccupation
with the state of emergency--to say nothing of the
potential for intra-party intrigue within the Nepali
Congress--may defer consideration of the stalled
legislation still more. Among the bills already tabled
for consideration are amendments to the Health Services
Act and the Education Act; a Finance Ordinance proposing
changes to the tax code; and the Terrorist and
Destructive Acts Ordinance (TADO) promulgated November
26 (Ref C). The TADO defines acts of terrorism; allows
the Government to declare individuals and/or
organizations terrorists; and provides for life
imprisonment for those convicted of terrorism.


7. (SBU) Also pending is a long-awaited, much-touted
amendment to the Anti-Corruption Act of 1961. The bill
is aimed at strengthening the Commission for the Control
of the Abuse of Authority (CIAA),empowering the largely
toothless agency to take up corruption cases against
government ministers and members of the judiciary.
Since its inception in 1990, the CIAA has won no more
than partial convictions in just 11 of the 111 cases it
has filed.

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COMMENT
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8. (SBU) Widespread corruption is often cited as one of
the prime reasons for the government's failure to
deliver services equitably--which in turn is often cited
as one of the major grievances fueling the Maoist
insurgency. It seems doubtful, however, that discussion
of legislation to toughen anti-corruption laws will be
accorded the same urgency as ratification of the
emergency--if indeed the proposed amendment ends up
being tabled during this session at all. Deuba and his
government can expect to entertain more political
posturing and proposals for horse-trading from the
Opposition (and, quite possibly, from some within the
ruling party as well) in the two weeks between now and
the Feb. 22 deadline for ratification of the emergency.
Ultimately, however, we expect the emergency to be
ratified with comparatively little trouble and to
continue for another three months. Whether Parliament
will so quickly address the many other matters on its
agenda, including long-deferred action on important
legislation like the Anti-Corruption amendment, is less
certain.
MALINOWSKI