Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02KATHMANDU1947
2002-10-08 12:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

NEPAL: PARTIES SCRAMBLE FOR CONSENSUS AS DEADLINE

Tags:  PGOV NP GON 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001947 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2012
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PARTIES SCRAMBLE FOR CONSENSUS AS DEADLINE
NEARS

REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1938

B. (B) KATHMANDU 1932

Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

-------
SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001947

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2012
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PARTIES SCRAMBLE FOR CONSENSUS AS DEADLINE
NEARS

REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1938

B. (B) KATHMANDU 1932

Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) As the deadline set by King Gyanendra for nominations
to an interim Cabinet approaches, politicians are scrambling
to patch together a consensus response to the monarch's
dismissal of the government of former Prime Minister Sher
Bahadur Deuba and his assumption of executive power October 4
(Ref B). Having met with the King individually over the past
few days, party leaders are urging him to accept a group
meeting in which they can press a joint position. Most of
the largest parties have agreed that the caretaker Prime
Minister and his new Cabinet should be drawn from the
political arena and chosen on the basis of consensus.
Whether or not the habitually quarrelsome parties can develop
such a consensus by the October 9 deadline set by the King
remains unclear. But many political leaders are increasingly
fearful that he has already made up his mind about the
composition of his new Cabinet and will forge ahead--with or
without the parties' consent. End summary.

--------------
CONSENSUS ON CONFRONTING THE KING
--------------


2. (C) As the October 9 deadline set by King Gyanendra for
nominations to a caretaker government approaches (Ref B),
leaders of six major political parties are working feverishly
to develop consensus on how to respond to the monarch's
dismissal of the government of former Prime Minister Sher
Bahadur Deuba and his move to set up a new Cabinet. (Note:
As reported Ref A, Deuba's Nepali Congress Party (Democratic)
has apparently decided not to participate in the new
government and is not joining in the inter-party discussions.
Deuba did meet privately with the King October 7. End
note.) According to former Finance Minister Ram Sharan
Mahat, the six parties have decided to extract guarantees
from the King to respect three conditions. First, the new
Prime Minister should be a political person. Second, the new
Cabinet should be comprised of politicians in a similar ratio
to those present in the most recent Parliament (giving an
advantage to G.P. Koirala's Nepali Congress Party). Finally,
the Prime Minister should be determined on the basis of

consensus from the six political parties that had MPs in the
previous Parliament. The parties are likely to meet later in
the evening October 8 to articulate their joint position.
Jhala Nath Khanal of the Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist (UML),the largest Opposition party, later
echoed many of Mahat's points, noting that the UML "would
find it difficult to participate" in a new Cabinet that had
not been formed on the basis of "an all-party understanding."
The parties also have a number of technical questions about
the powers of the interim Cabinet they want clarified before
committing to participation (Ref A).


3. (C) How exactly to impress their message upon the King
presents a problem for the parties, however. Apparently
espousing the rubric about safety in numbers, they have been
pressing the Palace to accept a group meeting in which all
six party leaders present the joint position. Prabhakar
Rana, a businessman with close ties to the Palace, told the
Ambassador October 8 that the King has so far staunchly
resisted that overture, preferring instead to meet each
leader individually. If the parties are unable to give the
King their suggestions for a Cabinet by the deadline, the
King will move ahead on his own, Rana indicated. Individual
party leaders who have met the King over the past few days
understand the King's impatience as well, and are reportedly
uneasy about a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude they perceive
in Gyanendra. Mahat said many expressed concern that the
King has already made up his mind about the composition of
the new Cabinet. The King needs the support of the political
parties, with their extensive grass-roots organizations, if
he hopes to win a hearts-and-minds battle against the Maoists
in rural areas, Mahat said; in fact the King needs their
support more than they need his. Khanal said UML leader
Madhav Nepal, who met the King October 6, was "a little bit
worried" that the King appeared to harbor "negative
impressions" about political parties derived from "wrong
information" fed to him by self-interested Palace sycophants.

--------------
AND THE CONSENSUS CANDIDATE IS . . . .
--------------


4. (C) Although the parties may have decided the new PM
should be a "consensus candidate," reaching consensus on the
identity of that candidate may also be problematic when/if
they meet later October 8. (Note: We've heard the name of
Surya Bahadur Thapa, a former PM and current President of the
National Democratic Party, Nepal's third largest party, is
being floated. End note.) Mahat acknowledged that attaining
consensus on such an important question among the six
fractious parties will be difficult. Khanal said
optimistically that his party was ready to forward names for
the Cabinet as soon as it received "a positive signal" from
the King on the stipulated concerns. When asked if the UML
would back "a consensus candidate" that could come from
another party, Khanal said the UML believes "the need of the
hour" calls for all parties and all supporters of multi-party
democracy to be united. "If we're divided, it will be a pity
for the country." When pressed, however, he acknowledged the
practical difficulties of the six parties formulating a
consensus slate within the limited time remaining.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) The King's action seems to be achieving the
near-impossible: shocking the usually contentious political
parties into all-too-rare alignment and cooperation, however
temporary that may be. It is regrettable, however, that the
threat the Maoist insurgency poses to multi-party democracy
was never deemed a similar "need of the hour" by these same
parties. While the Palace has indicated it may relax some of
the requirements it stipulated against members of the new
Cabinet running in the next election (Ref A),it seems
unlikely that the King will bend his standards enough to
permit the same old faces--especially that of former PM G.P.
Koirala--to resurface in the Cabinet. Decisiveness is not
the political parties' strong suit; the longer they dither,
the faster the deadline approaches. If the parties fail to
meet the October 9 deadline set by the King, they will be
hard pressed to explain why they were unable to rise to this
offer. By all indications, October 9 may see a confrontation
between Gyanendra's challenge and the parties' preconditions.
MALINOWSKI