NEPAL: ALL-PARTY CONSENSUS TO POSTPONE ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001901

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2012
TAGS: PGOV NEPAL'>NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: ALL-PARTY CONSENSUS TO POSTPONE ELECTIONS

REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1811

B. (B) KATHMANDU 1781

C. (C) KATHMANDU 1772

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: On September 29 an all-party meeting
recommended that national parliamentary elections, originally
scheduled to begin November 13, be postponed. The
recommendation--reached just one day after the Election
Commission finally announced the long-awaited schedule for
the polls--was made after the parties reached a consensus
that the deteriorating security situation warrants postponing
the elections. A Cabinet meeting September 30 decided that
the Government should discuss a possible new date for polls
and the make-up of a suggested all-party government with
political party leaders. If the Prime Minister decides to
take the recommendation to the King, the decision would give
the monarch the all-party, public consensus he required
before invoking his Constitutional authority to postpone the
polls (Ref B). End summary.


2. (SBU) On September 29 an all-party meeting at the
residence of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba recommended
that the Prime Minister ask King Gyanendra to postpone
mid-term parliamentary elections, originally scheduled to
begin November 13, because of the uncertain security
environment. The meeting proposed that a new interim
all-party government, with representation from each party in
the former Parliament, be formed until elections can take
place. The meeting did not address fixing a date for the
deferred elections. A Cabinet meeting September 30 decided
that the Government should continue discussion of the matter,
including a time-frame for the deferred election and the
make-up of an interim government, with political party
leaders.


3. (SBU) Hom Nath Dahal, a former MP and now spokesman for
PM Deuba's newly formed NEPALi Congress (Democratic) Party
(Ref A),said that the PM and his party were the only
participants in the meeting urging that elections take place
as scheduled. When it became apparent, however, that the
other parties were strongly in favor of postponement, the NC
(Democratic) had to go along with the consensus, Dahal said.
He suggested that the new interim all-party government would
likely be headed by Deuba.


4. (U) The decision to postpone elections comes just one
day after the Election Commission finally announced a
schedule--pending since the dissolution of Parliament May
22--for phased polling throughout the country. The Election
Commission timetable called for polling to occur in six
discrete phases, extending from November 13 to January 10.
Filing of cadidacies was to have begun October 5.


5. (C) Despite the all-party consensus, there are a few
voices of dissension. Former MP Narayan Singh Pun, who left
the NEPALi Congress to form his own political party to
contest the November elections (and thus did not attend the
September 29 meeting),complained that postponing the polls
in response to Maoist terrorism amounts to an admission of
defeat by the Government. We are ceding the ground to the
Maosits and letting them win, he argued. If the mainstream
political parties show they are too afraid to campaign and
shut themselves up in Kathmandu, the Maoists will fill the
vacuum left in the districts and become stronger, rather than
weaker, in the interim until elections, he predicted. He
expressed great disappointment with his political colleagues'
timidity, adding that no one will ever be able to guarantee
an environment of complete safety--even six months or one
year from now--for elections. He said that many of his
former party workers when he was in the NEPALi Congress have
become so disenchanted that they have joined the Maoists.


6. (C) Comment: Although few people we have talked to over
the past six weeks expected the elections to proceed as
scheduled, no political leader seemed willing to say so in
public. As long as the Election Commission delayed
publishing the schedule--and as long as no one had to file
for candidacy and show up in any potentially dangerous
constituencies--the various parties seemed willing to
continue the increasingly implausible charade that voting
would take place on November 13. But less than 24 hours
after the long-delayed schedule was finally announced, the
leaders of seven different parties had hammered out, in
uncharacteristically short order, a consensus that they
didn't want to have the elections after all. Whatever its
timing, the recommendation seems to fulfill the two
conditions for a request for royal intervention--that it
arise from consensus and be made in public--that King
Gyanendra had stipulated he was looking for before invoking
his constitutional authority to postpone elections (Ref A).
We expect the Prime Minister will forward the request to the
King--along with his own recommendations for the composition
of a caretaker government--soon.
MALINOWSKI