Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02KATHMANDU1091
2002-05-31 12:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

RECONCILIATION EFFORTS IN NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY

Tags:  PGOV NP GON 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001091 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2012
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: RECONCILIATION EFFORTS IN NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY

REF: KATHMANDU 1055 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5(B,D).

--------
SUMMARY
---------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001091

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2012
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: RECONCILIATION EFFORTS IN NEPALI CONGRESS PARTY

REF: KATHMANDU 1055 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5(B,D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Efforts to reconcile intra-party rivals Prime
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and Nepali Congress President and
former Prime Minister G.P. Koirala appear headed in the right
direction. Koirala has directed party peacemakers to patch
things up during his upcoming jaunt to China June 1. In a
meeting with the Ambassador May 31, Koirala said his party
will participate in the November 13 elections, but stressed
his continuing fear that royal and/or military interference
may undermine chances that they are free and fear. The
business community appears to be solidly behind PM Deuba and
may threaten to withhold customary contributions to the
Nepali Congress Party if intra-party squabbling continues.
End summary.

--------------
EFFORTS AT RECONCILIATION
--------------


2. (C) Neutral-minded leaders in the Nepali Congress Party,
such as former Deputy Prime Minister Ram Chandra Poudel,
former Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat, and former Speaker
Taranath Ranabhat, are joining party patriarch K.P.
Bhattarai's ongoing efforts to heal the rift between Prime
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and former Prime Minister and
Nepali Congress Party President G.P. Koirala (Reftel). Mahat
told the Ambassador May 30 Koirala admitted to the
peacemakers that expelling Deuba from the party was a
mistake, and is looking for a face-saving way out of the
impasse. Koirala will leave for a four-day visit to China
June 1 and will likely do nothing, however, until after his
return.


3. (C) Some party insiders have told us that while Koirala
may have seen the error of his ways, his supporters seem
hell-bent on fueling the antagonism between the two leaders,
making any possible conciliatory gesture all the more
difficult. Among the most rabid is said to be G.P.'s
daughter Sujata, who has political aspirations of her own and
sees Deuba (who is closer to her age than to her father's) as
a significant obstacle to her dynasty-building.


4. (C) Complicating efforts at reconciliation, however, is
the personalization of politics both Deuba and Koirala
cultivate. Former Cabinet member and Deuba friend Ram Sharan

Mahat said Deuba typically took any opposition to his wishes
in the Cabinet as a personal attack. Extension of the
emergency should have been argued on its own merits, Mahat
said; instead, Deuba made it a test of personal loyalty to
him.

--------------
KOIRALA: LEAVE IT TO THE YOUNGER GENERATION
TO SORT OUT
-------------- -


5. (C) The Ambassador met with Koirala at the former PM's
residence May 31. Koirala said his principal concern now is
that the elections scheduled for November 13 be free and
fair. People don't want elections now, he opined. Conditions
are not conducive; the insurgency has fueled an atmosphere of
fear, and there is doubt about how the military and police
will conduct themselves during the polling. But since the PM
has called elections, the Nepali Congress Party, as a
democratic institution, will participate. He told the
Ambassador he had met with human rights groups the previous
day to emphasize the need for neutral and effective election
monitoring, and noted that he plans to travel to the
districts soon to assess the situation. The Ambassador
responded that he and other donors have stressed to all
involved--including PM Deuba, the King, and the
military--that ensuring free and fair elections in November
is critical. All seemed to understand the importance and
pledged their support. The Embassy is also looking at how it
can be helpful during the elections in other ways, such as
voter education. Koirala said he was glad to hear of the
King's reaction, but asked rhetorically how "serious" the
monarch's assurances are.

6. (C) The Ambassador noted that the Nepali Congress Party
faces the additional challenge of attempting to mount a
national election campaign when its internal house is in
disarray. Koriala acknowledged that some party leaders,
including the aged and increasingly frail K.P. Bhattarai, are
trying to patch up the rift. He said he has told "the
younger generation" (i.e., younger than Koirala, who is
nearly 80) that since he is close to retirement, the future
of the party depends on them and it is thus up to them to
find a solution to the problem while he is in China. (Note:
Koirala also told the Ambassador eight years ago that his
generation was then ready to step away from the political
scene and let the younger generation of party leaders run
things. End note.) He expects some such accommodation will
be found during his absence. PM Deuba had committed "a
Himalayan blunder" in dissolving Parliament, Koirala said,
after assuring the all-party meeting May 22 that he would
withdraw his proposal to extend the emergency. That Deuba
moved to dissolve Parliament at almost midnight without
consulting either the Nepali Congress MPs or his own Cabinet
leads Koirala to suspect "something fishy" in the decision.
In the previous three dissolutions, the late King Birendra
had always waited 48 hours to consult lawyers, political
leaders and others before making his decision. This new
King, on the other hand, "moved fast," Koirala observed,
repeating, "That's why I feel there is something fishy." He
appealed to the Ambassador to tell the King not to let the
Royal Nepal Army (RNA) interfere with the elections.


7. (C) Why should the King or military wish to undermine
free and fair elections? Koirala said he had been
conducting, with the King's knowledge, some behind-the-scenes
talks with Maoist leaders aimed at restarting dialogue. The
King was "positive" toward the initiative, directing Koirala
to determine the Maoists' "bottom line" on negotiations. He
surmised that the King may not have liked Koirala's previous
public statement that the Maoists should deal with
Parliament, as the true representatives of the people, since
the King "doesn't want to give credit to Parliament."
Koirala said he had proposed a referendum on amending the
Constitution (but not amending essential elements that ensure
a multiparty democracy, human rights, and a Constitutional
monarchy). The informal talks "were going on," but now
"everything is disrupted." He intimated that he believes the
King (and perhaps the military) may have been uncomfortable
with his progress with the Maoists.
--------------
BUSINESS LEADERS TO USE CHECKBOOK INFLUENCE
--------------


8. (C) A number of business leaders have told us they back
Deuba, and while they would prefer to see fences mended, do
not want a reconciliation that will only mean continued
in-fighting and influence peddling. A meeting Deuba held
with business leaders May 29 produced a public statement of
support for him. President of the Federated Nepal Chambers
of Commerce and Industry Ravi Bhakta Shrestha told Ambassador
May 30 that the business community will also use its
influence to try to mend things in the party. Specifically,
Shrestha said his well-heeled members could put Koirala and
others on notice that partisan bickering is bad for business,
sends the wrong signal to investors, and is hurting the
economy. (Note: Businessmen are also not likely to welcome
the United Marxist-Leninist (UML) government that is almost
certain to win the election if the Nepali Congress Party
splits. End note.) If steps are not taken to improve
intra-party relations, Shrestha will warn, the Nepali
Congress can expect significantly reduced contributions from
the business community in the upcoming elections. According
to former Finance Minister Mahat, the Koirala camp is hurting
for cash, while Deuba has the advantage of being in office
going for him.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Since a Nepali Congress Party split almost certainly
means an Opposition victory at the polls, we are not
surprised that Koirala has instructed the would-be
peacemakers to clean up the mess he and Deuba have made while
he is on a face-saving "mission" out of the country. We
expect an accommodation will be reached upon his return. We
also expect him to keep up the drumbeat of worry about free
and fair elections--with the inevitable, implicit link to
possible Palace/military underhandedness in the process. We
will continue to underscore to all players our interest--and
theirs--in securing free and fair elections that are, to the
extent possible, held on time. We would like to offer
assistance, as we have in the past, to support such
elections, and are now looking at possible ways to be helpful
in this process. We recommend possible donor support for the
elections as a topic for discussion at the upcoming meeting
on Nepal in London June 19-20.

MALINOWSKI