MDC WILL ONLY TALK TRANSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000731

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO AND AF/S, DRL FOR A/S CRANER, S/WCI FOR
AMBASSADOR PROSPER

NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC WILL ONLY TALK TRANSITION

REF: HARARE 721

CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D



1. (C) SUMMARY: THE MDC SHARPLY DEFINED ITS WILLINGNESS
TO ENGAGE IN FACILITATED DIALOGUE WITH ZANU-PF AS
LIMITED TO A TRANSITIONAL FORMULA TOWARD NEW ELECTIONS
AND REJECTED A UNITY GOVERNMENT. THIS PUTS THEM ON A
CONFLICTING COURSE WITH ZANU-PF WHICH SEEKS TO FORCE MDC
AND THE NATION TO ACCEPT MUGABE'S LEGITIMACY AS
PRESIDENT. WE URGE DIRECT AND INDIRECT US EFFORTS TO
HIGHLIGHT AND PRESS FOR AN END TO STATE-SPONSORED
VIOLENT RETRIBUTION AGAINST OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) MDC MP DAVID COLTART ASKED TO SEE THE BRITISH
HIGH COMMISSIONER AND THE AMERICAN AMBASSADOR THE
EVENING OF MARCH 19 TO BRIEF ON RESULTS OF THE MDC
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEETING HELD THAT DAY.
COLTART SAID THAT THE COMMITTEE WAS UNITED IN OPPOSITION
TO MDC PARTICIPATION IN A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT.
GRASSROOTS SENTIMENT WAS EXTREMELY STRONG BECAUSE PEOPLE
IN THE COUNTRYSIDE WERE BEING BEATEN UP AND KILLED BY
ZANU-PF, THE ARMED FORCES AND THE POLICE FOR HAVING
SUPPORTED THE MDC. THE REQUIREMENT TO PUBLISH THE NAMES
AND ADDRESSES OF MDC POLLING AGENTS WAS NOW BEING USED
AS A WAY TO PERSECUTE AND PUNISH MDC SUPPORTERS.
COLTART SAID THAT SHOULD THE MDC LEADERSHIP SEEK TO
PARTICIPATE IN A UNITY GOVERNMENT, THEIR FOLLOWERS WOULD
REVOLT. MDC ANALYSIS WAS THAT PRESIDENTS MUGABE WAS
SEEKING TO BUY TIME BY ENTERING "RECONCILIATION TALKS"
IN THE HOPE THAT PRESSURE ON HIM WOULD BE RELIEVED AND
HE WOULD GET SOME FOOD, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND FUEL
ASSISTANCE IN RETURN. MDC BELIEVED THAT PRESIDENT MBEKI
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00731 01 OF 02 201318Z
HAD HIS OWN REASONS FOR BUYING TIME TO PUT OFF A CRISIS
AND DIMINISH PRESSURE ON SOUTH AFRICA TO RESOLVE THE
CRISIS.


3. (C) COLTART SAID THAT MDC WOULD ENTER INTO
NEGOTIATIONS BEING ENCOURAGED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN
PRESIDENTS ONLY IF THE NEGOTIATIONS WERE BASED ON THE
FOLLOWING PRINCIPLES:

-- THEY WOULD BE HELD UNDER THE MEDIATION OF AN
ACCEPTABLE NEUTRAL AFRICAN. THE MDC LATER TOLD THE
NIGERIAN HC THAT THEY COULD NOT ACCEPT CHIEF SHONEKAN'S
DESIGNATION IN THAT ROLE BECAUSE OF HIS ACCEPTANCE OF
THE ELECTION RESULT. PRESIDENT OBASSANJO INSTEAD NAMED
PROFESSOR ADEDEJE(SPELLING ?),WHO SERVED FOR TEN YEARS
AS REPRESENTATIVE TO THE ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
IN ADDIS.)

-- MBEKI AND OBASSANJO MUST COMMIT TO A FINITE, TIME-
LIMITED NEGOTIATION.

-- THE GOZ MUST RELEASE ALL MDC SUPPORTERS ARRESTED
DURING THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN AND SUSPEND PROSECUTION OF
MDC LEADERS.

-- THE OBJECTIVE OF NEGOTIATIONS IS NOT A UNITY
GOVERNMENT, BUT A GOVERNMENT OF TRANSITION FOR NO MORE
THAN SIX MONTHS LEADING TO NEW ELECTIONS HELD UNDER
UNITED NATIONS OR COMMONWEALTH AUSPICES AND HELD UNDER
THE NORMS AND STANDARDS FOR ELECTIONS SET FORTH BY THE
SADC-PARLIAMENTARY FORUM. (COLTART, A LAWYER, SAID THAT
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NO CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION WAS NECESSARY SINCE PRESIDENT
MUGABE HAD FREQUENTLY DEMONSTRATED THAT HE COULD DECREE
ANYTHING HE WISHED WITHOUT REFERENCE TO THE PARLIAMENT.)

-- MINISTERS IN SUCH A TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE
DIVIDED IN PROPORTION TO THE RESULTS OF THE 2000
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION(ALMOST EVENLY SPLIT) AND EACH
SIDE'S MINISTERS SHALL BE CHOSEN BY THEIR OWN
PARTY.(THIS TO BLOCK THE ONGOING ZANU-PF EFFORT TO PICK
OFF JUNIOR MDC PARLIAMENTARIANS AND ENTICE THEM INTO
ZANU-PF.)


4. (C) COLTART SAID THAT THE MDC WOULD SUPPORT THE
ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS(ZCTU) CALL FOR A
THREE-DAY STAY-AWAY MARCH 20-22 BECAUSE IT WAS IMPORTANT
TO MAINTAIN PRESSURE ON THE GOZ. HE SAID THAT
NEGOTIATIONS AND MASS ACTION NEEDED TO BE MAINTAINED.
BUT HE SAID THAT TSVANGIRAI HAD CAUTIONED HIS OWN
RADICALS TO AVOID VIOLENCE, WHICH WOULD BE USED TO
REPRESS THEM. COLTART NOTED THAT THE NEW PUBLIC ORDER
AND SECURITY ACT SPECIFICALLY PROHIBITED "STAY-AWAYS"
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONFRONTATION WAS HIGH. HE ALSO

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00
DS-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 VCE-00 M-00
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02
NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /004W
-------------- 77F3D8 201319Z /38
O 201304Z MAR 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1280
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000731

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO AND AF/S, DRL FOR A/S CRANER, S/WCI FOR
AMBASSADOR PROSPER

NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC WILL ONLY TALK TRANSITION

SAID THAT IF PARTICIPATION WAS HIGH, IT MIGHT CONTINUE
BEYOND THE THREE DAYS.


5. (C) COLTART ASKED FOR ASSURANCES THAT THE UK AND US
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PAGE 02 HARARE 00731 02 OF 02 201319Z
WERE NOT PUSHING A UNITY GOVERNMENT, BUT TRANSITION TO A
NEW ELECTION, ASSURANCES WHICH WE PROVIDED. HE ALSO
EXPRESSED EXTREME DISTRUST THAT MUGABE WAS USING TIME-
TESTED METHODS OF SEEKING TO CRUSH OR ABSORB THE MDC BY
A COMBINATION OF PERSECUTION AND INCORPORATION OF TOKEN
MDC ELEMENTS. HE ASKED FOR PRESSURE THROUGH MBEKI AND
OBASSANJO IN PARTICULAR FOR AN END TO THE POLICY OF
RETRIBUTION AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
HE ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE UK OR ANOTHER SIGNATORY
COUNTRY SURFACE THE POSSIBLIITY OF INVOKING THE
INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION AGAINST TORTURE. (US IS NOT A
SIGNATORY.)


6. COMMENT: ZANU HAS BEEN USING HEAVY PUBLIC PRESSURE
DIRECTLY AND THROUGH AFRICAN FRIENDS TO GET THE MDC TO
BUY INTO A RECONCILIATION PROCESS WHICH LEGITIMATES
MUGABE'S VICTORY AND RELIEVES PRESSURE ON THE GOZ FROM
THE BAD ELECTION PROCESS. FORMAL CHARGES AGAINST
TSVANGIRAI ON MARCH 20, HARASSMENT AND RETRIBUTION

SIPDIS
AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS AND HEAVY-HANDED RHETORIC ABOUT
THE MDC'S NEED TO BE PATRIOTIC ARE ALL PART OF THAT
PRESSURE. THE ALWAYS HEAVY-HANDED INFORMATION
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO WAS AT IT AGAIN IN A MARCH 20
"HERALD" ARTICLE, SAYING THAT TSVANGIRAI IS SOUNDING
LIKE A CRIMINAL (IN CALLING FOR AN ELECTION RE-RUN)
BENT ON SUBVERTING ZIMBABWE'S CONSTITUTION AND LAWS.
(REF B) THUS, THE AGENDAS FOR ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ARE
RADICALLY DIFFERENT WITH ZANU-PF OFFERING A FEW CRUMBS
AT MOST AND MDC SEEKING A NEW ELECTION. THE NIGERIANS
AND SOUTH AFRICANS PLAN TO BEGIN THE PROCESS ON
THURSDAY, BUT WILL HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY RECONCILING
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00731 02 OF 02 201319Z
THE TWO WILDLY DIFFERENT AGENDAS. END COMMENT.


7. ACTION REQUESTS: 1.) WE RECOMMEND THAT WE DO
EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO HIGHLIGHT AND BRING PRESSURE
AGAINST THE GOZ'S CAMPAIGN OF POST-ELECTION REPRESSION,
INCLUDING URGING THE NIGERIANS AND SOUTH AFRICANS TO
BRING PRESSURE ON THE GOZ. 2.) WE ASK WHETHER THE
DEPARTMENT CAN OPEN OR STIMULATE THE OPENING A PUBLIC
INVESTIGATION OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE MANY ACTS OF
MURDERS, BEATINGS, TORTURE AND RAPE REPORTED IN THE
INTERNATIONAL PRESS AND MANY ELECTION OBSERVER REPORTS
DURING THE PRE- AND NOW POST-ELECTION PERIODS.

SULLIVAN

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