Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02HARARE61
2002-01-08 09:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:
ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. 080935Z Jan 02 CONFIDENTIAL PTO1299 PAGE 01 HARARE 00061 081040Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /007W ------------------54A00C 081041Z /38 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0656 INFO NSC WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000061
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE
ELECTION
REF: '01 HARARE 3813
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000061
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE
ELECTION
REF: '01 HARARE 3813
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) IN A DECEMBER 20 LUNCH WITH AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN
AND POLOFF, ZANU-PF MP AND MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON
ZVOBGO RUMINATED ON REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION BEFORE
PARLIAMENT (REPORTED REFTEL),MASVINGO POLITICS, AND THE
UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ZVOBGO HAD FEW KIND
WORDS FOR HIS OLD BROTHER-IN-ARMS MUGABE, SAYING THE
AGING PRESIDENT DOES NOT LISTEN TO HIM OR ANYONE ELSE
ANYMORE. ZVOBGO STATED THAT MUGABE IS BECOMING MORE
UNPOPULAR ALL THE TIME AND WOULD LOSE THE MARCH
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. "HOW DO YOU CONVINCE VOTERS TO
VOTE FOR YOU BY BEATING THEM UP?" HE ASKED RHETORICALLY.
2. (C) ZVOBGO INTIMATED THAT ONE OF THE KEY AREAS
MUGABE WOULD LOSE WOULD BE MASVINGO PROVINCE. HE HINTED
THAT HE AND HIS SUPPORTERS WOULD NOT BE CAMPAIGNING FOR
THE PRESIDENT. HOWEVER, HE DENIED THAT ZANU-PF SPLITS
IN MASVINGO WOULD COST MUGABE THE ELECTION, OBJECTING TO
THE IDEA THAT "FACTIONALISM" IS A PROBLEM IN THE
PROVINCE. ZVOBGO DID NOTE THAT VIRTUALLY NO
KARANGANS (THE SHONA SUBGROUP THAT DOMINATES MASVINGO)
WERE IN CABINET OR PERMANENT SECRETARY POSITIONS, A FACT
THAT WILL HURT MUGABE IN THE ELECTION. "MUGABE WILL
LOSE THE ELECTION ON HIS OWN," THE MP PREDICTED.
3. (U) BELYING ZVOBGO'S CLAIMS, THE JANUARY 3 EDITION
OF THE GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED "ZIMBABWE MIRROR" REPORTED
THAT THE ZVOBGO FACTION (BACKED BY OUSTED GOVERNOR
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00061 081040Z
DZIKAMAI MAVHAIRE AND THE PROVINCIAL WAR VETERANS
ASSOCIATION) RECENTLY SENT A LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE
IMPLORING HIM TO RESOLVE THE ZANU-PF SPLITS IN MASVINGO.
THE LETTER REPORTEDLY DEMANDED THAT MUGABE REMOVE THE
PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVE INSTALLED LAST YEAR AND HEADED BY
HIGHER EDUCATION MINISTER SAMUEL MUMBENGEGWI AND CURRENT
GOVERNOR JOSIAH HUNGWE (AND BACKED BY VICE-PRESIDENT
SIMON MUZENDA),OR FACE LOSING THE ELECTION. THE
ARTICLE REPORTED THAT THE ZANU-PF TOP BRASS WAS DIVIDED
OVER HOW TO HANDLE THE ZVOBGO DEMAND.
4. (C) COMMENT: AS ZIMBABWE'S MOST POPULOUS PROVINCE,
AND ONE NEARLY EVENLY DIVIDED IN SUPPORT FOR THE MDC AND
ZANU-PF, MASVINGO WILL BE CRUCIAL TO MUGABE'S CHANCES
FOR RE-ELECTION. IF MUGABE CANNOT PLACATE ZVOBGO, WHO
REMAINS POPULAR IN THE PROVINCE, AND GET HIS BACKING IN
THE ELECTION, THE PRESIDENT RISKS LOSING A LARGE BLOCK
OF VOTES. THE FACTIONAL SPLITS THAT HAVE WRACKED ZANU-
PF IN MASVINGO FOR YEARS ARE PROBABLY NOT AS GREAT A
FACTOR FOR MUGABE AS THE PRESS WOULD SUGGEST BECAUSE THE
EXECUTIVE INSTALLED BY MUGABE AND MUZENDA HAS LITTLE
PUBLIC SUPPORT. THE KEY WILL BE CONVINCING ZVOBGO AND
HIS CADRES TO BACK THE PRESIDENT, AND THAT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS IT WOULD REQUIRE A HUMILIATING
ABOUT-FACE BY MUGABE. END COMMENT.
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
>
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE
ELECTION
REF: '01 HARARE 3813
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) IN A DECEMBER 20 LUNCH WITH AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN
AND POLOFF, ZANU-PF MP AND MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON
ZVOBGO RUMINATED ON REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION BEFORE
PARLIAMENT (REPORTED REFTEL),MASVINGO POLITICS, AND THE
UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ZVOBGO HAD FEW KIND
WORDS FOR HIS OLD BROTHER-IN-ARMS MUGABE, SAYING THE
AGING PRESIDENT DOES NOT LISTEN TO HIM OR ANYONE ELSE
ANYMORE. ZVOBGO STATED THAT MUGABE IS BECOMING MORE
UNPOPULAR ALL THE TIME AND WOULD LOSE THE MARCH
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. "HOW DO YOU CONVINCE VOTERS TO
VOTE FOR YOU BY BEATING THEM UP?" HE ASKED RHETORICALLY.
2. (C) ZVOBGO INTIMATED THAT ONE OF THE KEY AREAS
MUGABE WOULD LOSE WOULD BE MASVINGO PROVINCE. HE HINTED
THAT HE AND HIS SUPPORTERS WOULD NOT BE CAMPAIGNING FOR
THE PRESIDENT. HOWEVER, HE DENIED THAT ZANU-PF SPLITS
IN MASVINGO WOULD COST MUGABE THE ELECTION, OBJECTING TO
THE IDEA THAT "FACTIONALISM" IS A PROBLEM IN THE
PROVINCE. ZVOBGO DID NOTE THAT VIRTUALLY NO
KARANGANS (THE SHONA SUBGROUP THAT DOMINATES MASVINGO)
WERE IN CABINET OR PERMANENT SECRETARY POSITIONS, A FACT
THAT WILL HURT MUGABE IN THE ELECTION. "MUGABE WILL
LOSE THE ELECTION ON HIS OWN," THE MP PREDICTED.
3. (U) BELYING ZVOBGO'S CLAIMS, THE JANUARY 3 EDITION
OF THE GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED "ZIMBABWE MIRROR" REPORTED
THAT THE ZVOBGO FACTION (BACKED BY OUSTED GOVERNOR
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 00061 081040Z
DZIKAMAI MAVHAIRE AND THE PROVINCIAL WAR VETERANS
ASSOCIATION) RECENTLY SENT A LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE
IMPLORING HIM TO RESOLVE THE ZANU-PF SPLITS IN MASVINGO.
THE LETTER REPORTEDLY DEMANDED THAT MUGABE REMOVE THE
PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVE INSTALLED LAST YEAR AND HEADED BY
HIGHER EDUCATION MINISTER SAMUEL MUMBENGEGWI AND CURRENT
GOVERNOR JOSIAH HUNGWE (AND BACKED BY VICE-PRESIDENT
SIMON MUZENDA),OR FACE LOSING THE ELECTION. THE
ARTICLE REPORTED THAT THE ZANU-PF TOP BRASS WAS DIVIDED
OVER HOW TO HANDLE THE ZVOBGO DEMAND.
4. (C) COMMENT: AS ZIMBABWE'S MOST POPULOUS PROVINCE,
AND ONE NEARLY EVENLY DIVIDED IN SUPPORT FOR THE MDC AND
ZANU-PF, MASVINGO WILL BE CRUCIAL TO MUGABE'S CHANCES
FOR RE-ELECTION. IF MUGABE CANNOT PLACATE ZVOBGO, WHO
REMAINS POPULAR IN THE PROVINCE, AND GET HIS BACKING IN
THE ELECTION, THE PRESIDENT RISKS LOSING A LARGE BLOCK
OF VOTES. THE FACTIONAL SPLITS THAT HAVE WRACKED ZANU-
PF IN MASVINGO FOR YEARS ARE PROBABLY NOT AS GREAT A
FACTOR FOR MUGABE AS THE PRESS WOULD SUGGEST BECAUSE THE
EXECUTIVE INSTALLED BY MUGABE AND MUZENDA HAS LITTLE
PUBLIC SUPPORT. THE KEY WILL BE CONVINCING ZVOBGO AND
HIS CADRES TO BACK THE PRESIDENT, AND THAT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS IT WOULD REQUIRE A HUMILIATING
ABOUT-FACE BY MUGABE. END COMMENT.
SULLIVAN
CONFIDENTIAL
>