ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE SETS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000591

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, A/S KANSTEINER AND PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR
AF/S

NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/04
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PREL KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE SETS
THE STAGE FOR THE VOTE, ZANU-PF STYPE


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PAGE 02 HARARE 00591 01 OF 02 061559Z
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. THE TWO TOP OFFICIALS OF ZIMBABWE'S
ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC) BRIEFED
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS ON THE MORNING OF MARCH
6 ABOUT THE STATUS OF THE MARCH 9 AND 10 VOTE. IN A
SURREAL NINETY-MINUTE SPEECH, THE RECENTLY APPOINTED
NUMBER TWO OF THE ESC, A PRO-ZANU-PF BRIGADIER, PAINTED
A ROSY PICTURE OF ELECTION READINESS AND DUCKED KEY
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LOCATION OF POLLING PLACES, WHAT
LOCAL OBSERVERS WILL BE ACCREDITED, AND EXACTLY WHAT
ELECTORAL RULES ARE IN FORCE. WITH LESS THAN SEVENTY-
TWO HOURS BEFORE THE POLLS OPEN, THE GOZ STALL STRATEGY
HAS EFFECTIVELY ENSURED THAT ELECTION-DAY
DISORGANIZATION AND UNCERTAINTY WILL REIGN. END
SUMMARY.

ELECTION COMMISSIONER: "IT'S NOT OUR FAULT!"
--------------

2. (SBU) ESC COMMISSIONER GULA-NDEBELE KICKED OFF THE
PRE-ELECTION BRIEFING WITH A SHORT SPEECH THAT STRESSED
THAT THE ESC ONLY SUPERVISES ELECTIONS, AND THAT THE
REGISTRAR GENERAL IS FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SMOOTH
COMPORTMENT OF THE VOTE. WITH THIS HOT-POTATO IN THE
AIR, GULA-NDEBELE MADE SOME VAGUE COMMENTS ABOUT HOW
POLITICAL PARTIES CONTESTING THE ELECTION "PERCEIVE" --
HE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WAS NOT NECESSARILY SO -- THAT
NGOS ARE PARTISAN. THIS HAD FORCED THE ESC TO SEARCH
FOR NON-PARTISAN GROUPS TO ACT AS OBSERVERS. HE
CONCLUDED THAT SINCE ALL THE POLITICAL PARTIES MISTRUST
THE BONA FIDES OF CIVIL SERVANTS, THIS MAKES THEM THE
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LOGICAL CHOICE TO SERVE AS MONITORS.

THE BRIGADIER DECLAIMS
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3. (SBU) NEXT IN LINE WAS THE ESC DEPUTY COMMISSIONER
NYIKAYARAMBA, AN ERSTWHILE ZDF BRIGADIER WHO RETIRED TWO
MONTHS PAST TO ASSUME HIS PRESENT ROLE. THE BRIGADIER
GOT OFF ON THE WRONG FOOT WITH SEVERAL DELEGATIONS BY
ANNOUNCING THAT ALL AFRICAN CHIEFS OF MISSION AND THE
HEADS OF OBSERVER GROUPS, AFRICAN ONLY, WERE INVITED TO
A FOLLOW-ON SESSION IN AN ADJACENT MEETING HALL AS SOON
AS THE CURRENT MEETING HAD ENDED.


4. (C) NYIKAYARAMBA PRAISED OBSERVERS AS THE "EYES AND
EARS" OF THE ESC, AND THEN PROCEEDED TO EXPLAIN WHY THE
ESC WILL BE LARGELY BLIND AND DEAF ON ELECTION DAY. HE
STRESSED THAT THE CENTRAL ISSUE OF THE ELECTION WAS LAND
INEQUITY AND THEN DESCRIBED AT LENGTH ELEVEN COMPETING
PARTIES, INCLUDING SEVERAL OF WHICH WE WERE UNAWARE.
THE BRIGADIER THEN MADE A NUMBER OF STATEMENTS THAT WE
WOULD CHARACTERIZE AS INACCURATE, FOR WANT OF A BETTER
WORD. TO WIT:

-- THE TOTAL NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS HAS EXPANDED
FROM 3,904 FOR THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TO 4,548
IN 2002. NYIKAYARAMBA DID NOT ADDRESS WHY PRO-MDC
(OPPOSITION) URBAN AREAS HAVE LOST LARGE NUMBERS OF
POLLING STATIONS, ALTHOUGH AN ESCA HANDOUT DID STATE
THAT PRO-ZANU-PF (MUGABE) RURAL AREAS HAVE RECEIVED
ADDITIONAL STATIONS "TO SHORTEN WALKING DISTANCES." IT
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO CONFIRM THE ACTUAL NUMBERS, SINCE
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THE ESC HAS NOT YET RELEASED THE OFFICIAL LIST OF
POLLING STATIONS, ALTHOUGH -- TWO DAYS OUT --
NYIKAYARAMBA ASSURED THAT THIS IS IN THE WORKS.

-- REQUESTING WILLING SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF ON THE
PART OF INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, NYIKAYARAMBA STATED
THAT THE ESC SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A FULLY INDEPENDENT
ELECTORAL COMMISSION FULFILLING INTERNATIONAL NORMS. HE
DID NOT ADDRESS THE NEED FOR PRESIDENTIAL CONFIRMATION
OF THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS, HIS OWN RECENT APPOINTMENT,
NOR THE UTTER LACK OF OPPOSITION REPRESENTATION.

-- NYIKAYARAMBA STATED THAT THE ESC HAS ACCREDITED 566
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS AND LISTED THESE BY GROUP AND
NATIONALITY. HE TOOK SOME POETIC LICENSE IN THIS
EXERCISE, CITING 45 JAPANESE OBSERVERS (THERE ARE FIVE),
29 U.S. (25),28 NIGERIAN (12),ETC. IN ADDITION, HE
LISTED EU BILATERAL DIPLOMATS WHO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO BE
ACCREDITED, THE LOCAL EU COMMUNITY HAVING FINALLY MADE
COMMON CAUSE WHEN EU OBSERVER MISSION HEAD PIERRE
SCHORRI WAS EXPELLED AND THE EU DELEGATION FOLLOWED ON

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00
EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00
M-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02
NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W
-------------- 705F18 061559Z /38
O 061552Z MAR 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1118
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000591

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, A/S KANSTEINER AND PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR
AF/S

NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/04
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PREL KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE SETS
THE STAGE FOR THE VOTE, ZANU-PF STYPE

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PAGE 02 HARARE 00591 02 OF 02 061559Z
HIS HEELS.

-- NYIKAYARAMBA SAID THAT THE ESC HAS ALREADY SUCCEEDED
IN ACCREDITING 23 LOCAL OBSERVERS, INCLUDING NINE
PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH THE PRO-ZANU-PF RUMP TRADE UNION
HEADED BY WAR VETERAN LEADER JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA. NONE OF
THE 14,000 TRAINED ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK
FIGURED ON THIS LIST. IN RESPONSE TO A QUERY,
NYIKAYARAMBA REPLIED THAT HE COULD ONLY ACCREDIT THOSE
INVITED BY THE JUSTICE MINISTER, ANOTHER HOT POTATO IN
THE AIR. (NOTE: IN THE TWO DAYS REMAINING, THE ESC'S
TWO COMPUTERS DEDICATED TO PRODUCING CREDENTIAL BADGES
ARE CAPABLE OF ISSUING 2,000 BADGES, USING THE
OPTIMISTIC FIGURE OF ONE ISSUED PER MINUTE. IN A
CLASSIC CATCH 22, THE ZESN FOLK MAY EITHER WAIT IN
HARARE FOR CREDENTIALS, AND MISS THE ELECTIONS, OR
DEPLOY TO THE PROVINCES WITHOUT CREDENTIALS NEEDED TO
LET THEM OBSERVE EFFECTIVELY. END NOTE.)

-- NYIKAYARAMBA GOT HIS BIGGEST TITTER WHEN HE ANNOUNCED
THAT THE ESC DEPLORES POLITICALLY MOTIVATED VIOLENCE AND
IS "CARRYING OUT INVESTIGATIONS OF ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF
VIOLENCE."

-- NYIKAYARAMBA ANNOUNCED THAT ELECTION OBSERVERS MAY
SEEK COPIES OF THE CONSTITUTION AND THE ELECTORAL ACT
FROM THE OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS. HE DID NOT
REFER TO THE MARCH 1 GAZETTING OF THE AMENDED ELECTORAL
ACT OF JANUARY 2002, WHICH WAS STRICKEN DOWN LAST WEEK
BY THE SUPREME COURT, ONLY TO BE REINTRODUCED AND
GAZETTED AS THE LAW IN FORCE BY PRESIDENTIAL DIRECTIVE.
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-- THE BRIGADIER SAID THAT THERE HAD BEEN 5.4 MILLION
REGISTERED VOTERS AT THE TIME OF THE DECEMBER 27 CUTOFF
DATE. HOWEVER, IN A QUEST TO MAKE SURE THAT EVERY
QUALIFIED ZIMBABWEAN WAS ABLE TO VOTE, REGISTRATION HAD
BEEN REOPENED AND LATECOMERS WOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE FROM
SUPPLEMENTAL LISTS. HE DID NOT COMMENT ON REPORTS THAT
REGISTRATION HAS CONTINUED IN RURAL, TRADITIONALLY PRO-
ZANU-PF AREAS BUT NOT IN THE MDC'S URBAN STRONGHOLDS.

Q AND A SESSION
--------------

5. (C) AFTER DEMONSTRATING A MOCK-UP POLLING STATION
AND HOW VOTING IS DONE IN ZIMBABWE, THE ESC FIELDED
QUESTIONS. WHEN ASKED WHEN THEY WOULD PUBLISH THE LIST
OF POLLING PLACES, THEY STATED THAT IT WOULD BE PRINTED
IN THE NEWSPAPERS, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD NOT SAY EXACTLY
WHEN. WHEN ASKED ABOUT WHEN LISTS OF DOMESTIC OBSERVERS
WOULD BE RELEASED, THEY ADMITTED THAT THEY DID NOT KNOW,
BUT WOULD CERTAINLY TAKE THIS UP WITH THE JUSTICE
MINISTER. WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE REDUCTION OF POLLING
STATIONS IN URBAN AREAS AND THE NUMBER OF VOTERS EACH
COULD PROCESS PER HOUR, THEY ADMITTED THAT THEY DID NOT
HAVE THESE STATISTICS IN HAND. HOWEVER, THE OBSERVERS
SHOULD REST ASSURED THAT THE GOZ HAS AMPLE EXPERIENCE
WITH SUCH MATTERS, AND CAN EXTEND VOTING HOURS, IF IT
COMES TO THAT.

COMMENT
--------------

6. (C) THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE IS ILL EQUIPPED WITH POLITE
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ADJECTIVES TO FULLY DESCRIBE THE BRIEFING SESSION,
ALTHOUGH OUTRAGEOUS, MIND-BOGGLING, AND DEPLORABLE DO
SPRING TO MIND. THE ESC HAS PLAYED A CENTRAL ROLE IN
THE GOZ'S STALLING TACTICS, AN EFFECTIVE REARGUARD
ACTION THAT, IT WOULD APPEAR, HAS MANAGED TO KEEP THE
LARGE CONTINGENT OF DOMESTIC OBSERVERS OFF THE FIELD.
AT THIS POINT, TO MIX METAPHORS, THE ESC HAS SET THE
ELECTORAL STAGE TO THE INCUMBENT'S ADVANTAGE AND
DELIVERED THE OFFICIAL ESC LINE. ALL THAT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORATE HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENTLY COWED TO PLAY OUT ITS DESIGNATED PART
IN THE FINAL SCENE OF THE ZANU-PF SCRIPT.

SULLIVAN

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