Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02HARARE565
2002-03-04 15:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE FROM

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINS ZI SF 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

041504Z Mar 02


 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1189

PAGE 01 HARARE 00565 01 OF 02 041515Z 
ACTION AF-00 

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 
 DS-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 
 LAB-01 VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 SSO-00 
 SS-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
 ------------------6F0F35 041517Z /38 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1086
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
OAU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000565 

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S KANSTEINER
NSC FOR AFRICA SR ADVISER FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS ZI SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE FROM
HARARE: SIMILAR ANALYSIS, UNCLEAR COURSE OF ACTION

REF: (A)FBIS RESTON AFP20020304000023, (B)FBIS RESTON

AFP200203040069, (C)FBIS RESTON AFP20020303000105
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00565 01 OF 02 041515Z

CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000565

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S KANSTEINER
NSC FOR AFRICA SR ADVISER FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS ZI SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE FROM
HARARE: SIMILAR ANALYSIS, UNCLEAR COURSE OF ACTION

REF: (A)FBIS RESTON AFP20020304000023, (B)FBIS RESTON

AFP200203040069, (C)FBIS RESTON AFP20020303000105
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00565 01 OF 02 041515Z

CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D

1.(C) SUMMARY: THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH SOUTH AFRICAN
HIGH COMMISSIONER JEREMY NDOU ON MARCH 4 TO COMPARE
NOTES ON THE ZIMBABWEAN ELECTION PROCESS, LIKELY
SCENARIOS AND POSSIBLE RESPONSES. THE OFFICIAL SOUTH
AFRICAN OBSERVER DELEGATION HAS BEEN ACTIVE, BUT
DISCREET IN THEIR PUBLIC COMMENTS, WHILE SEEKING TO GET
THE GOZ TO ADDRESS THEIR CONCERNS WITH MIXED RESULTS.
ACCORDING TO THE SOUTH AFRICAN HC, SOUTH AFRICA BELIEVES
PRIVATELY THAT THERE HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIAL PROBLEMS IN
ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT DUE MOSTLY TO THE GOVERNMENT'S
DELIBERATE USE OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AS WELL AS
CONTINUING PROBLEMS IN FAIRNESS OF RULES AND PROCEDURES.
NDOU SAW THE LIKELY OUTCOMES AS A NARROW MDC VICTORY OR
A NARROW ZANU-PF VICTORY AND FORESAW PROBLEMS WITH
EITHER LOSER ACCEPTING THE RESULTS. HE HOPED THAT A
VICTORIOUS MDC WOULD AGREE TO A SORT OF NATIONAL UNITY
GOVERNMENT, BUT FEARED THAT A VICTORIOUS ZANU WOULD SEEK
TO DESTROY THE TSVANGIRAI AND THE MDC AS A CREDIBLE
OPPOSITION. HE HAD NO ANSWER FOR HOW SOUTH AFRICA WOULD
REACT TO A ZANU-PF VICTORY WHOSE RESULT APPEARED TO BE
SECURED BY FRAUD OTHER THAN TO QUESTION WHETHER SOUTH
AFRICA WOULD SEEK TO INSIST ON NEW ELECTIONS WHICH ZANU-
PF WOULD REJECT. HE AGREED THAT OUR TWO GOVERNMENTS
NEED TO COORDINATE VERY CLOSELY IN COMING DAYS, BOTH IN
HARARE AND IN PRETORIA/CAPETOWN. END SUMMARY


2. (U) THE SOUTH AFRICAN OFFICIAL OBSERVER DELEGATION
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 00565 01 OF 02 041515Z
(SAOM) INCREASED TO OVER 50 MEMBERS IN RECENT DAYS AND
WILL BE HEADED BY THE MINISTERS OF INTERNAL SECURITY AND
TRANSPORTATION WHO ARRIVED MARCH 4 TO STAY UNTIL ABOUT
MARCH 14. AS INDICATED REFTELS, THE SAOM HAS BEEN VERY
DISCREET IN PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS, SUGGESTING THERE WERE
PROBLEMS WITH POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND ELECTION

PROCEDURES, BUT SEEKING TO RESOLVE THESE PRIVATELY. THE
DELEGATION HAD ALSO RAISED THE POSSIBLE CHARGE OF
TREASON AGAINST OPPOSITION CANDIDATE TSVANGIRAI FOR
TREASON WITH THE GOZ IN ORDER TO FORCE THE GOZ TO
CLARIFY WHICH OF THE TWO VERSIONS IT HAD PUT OUT WAS
CORRECT. (IN THE END, THE GOZ STATED THAT TSVANGIRAI WAS
ONLY WARNED THAT HE MIGHT BE CHARGED, BUT WOULD NOT BE
CHARGED OR ARRESTED PRIOR TO ELECTIONS.) IN ADDITION TO
THE SAOM, SOUTH AFRICANS ARE PARTICIPATING IN SEPARATE
ANC, SOUTH AFRICAN PARLIAMENTARY AND SADC-PF
DELEGATIONS.

3.(C) SAOM FINDINGS AND ACTIONS
--------------

HC NDOU SAID THAT THE SAOM HAD FOUND A DELIBERATE GOZ
PRACTICE OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION UTILIZING YOUTH
BRIGADES AND OTHERS. THIS VIOLENCE WAS MUCH MORE
ORGANIZED AND TARGETED THAN VIOLENCE IN THE 2000
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. THE SAOM HAD RAISED THEIR
CONCERNS WITH THE GOZ, INCLUDING OVER VIOLENCE AFFECTING
OBSERVERS AND HAD SOME OF THEIR CONCERNS ADDRESSED; E.G.
PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER MNANGAGWA FLEW TO KWEKWE TO
CONTROL THE SITUATION AFTER AN MDC OFFICE WAS ATTACKED
WHILE THE SAOM TEAM WAS MEETING THERE. NDOU EXPRESSED
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 00565 01 OF 02 041515Z
IRRITATION THAT NAMIBIAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVER MBUENDE HAD
STATED THAT REPORTS OF VIOLENCE WERE OVERBLOWN WHEN ONLY
IN THE COUNTRY SEVERAL DAYS AND WITHOUT HAVING CHECKED
WITH OTHER OBSERVER MISSIONS. THE HC WAS ALSO DISMAYED
BY COMMONWEALTH OBSERVER HEAD ABU BAKAR'S PUBLIC
COMMENTS THAT THE PRESS WAS EXAGGERATING THE DEGREE OF
ELECTION VIOLENCE. HE ASCRIBING THIS TO INSUFFICIENT
CARE IN REMARKS THAT ZIMBABWEAN MEDIA WOULD EDIT TO
SERVE THEIR INTERESTS, AND TO THE FACT THAT ABU BAKAR
WAS THE GOZ'S OWN RECOMMENDATION TO HEAD THE
COMMONWEALTH OBSERVER MISSION. NDOU ALSO SAID THAT THE
SAOM HAD COMPLAINED OVER THE FREQUENT BLOCKING OR
CANCELLATION OF MDC RALLIES, WHILE NOT ONE ZANU-PF RALLY
HAD BEEN STOPPED, AND OVER PROCEDURAL PROBLEMS SUCH AS
THE CONTINUED FAILURE TO PROVIDE THE FINAL LIST OF
POLLING PLACES TO THE PUBLIC OR OPPOSITION PARTIES. THE
HC SAID THAT DEPUTY PRESIDENT ZUMA'S VISIT LAST WEEK WAS
INTENDED TO COORDINATE SAG AND GOZ POSITIONS IN ADVANCE
OF CHOGM AND WAS NOT DECISIVE ON BROADER ISSUES.

4.(C) LIKELY ELECTION OUTCOMES

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1190

PAGE 01 HARARE 00565 02 OF 02 041515Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DS-00
EUR-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 SSO-00 SS-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 6F0F41 041517Z /38
O 041504Z MAR 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1087
INFO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
OAU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000565

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S KANSTEINER
NSC FOR AFRICA SR ADVISER FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS ZI SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE FROM
HARARE: SIMILAR ANALYSIS, UNCLEAR COURSE OF ACTION

--------------

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00565 02 OF 02 041515Z
NDOU BELIEVED THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES WERE EITHER A
NARROW MDC VICTORY OR A NARROW ZANU-PF VICTORY. HE
BELIEVED THE MDC WAS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT OF VICTORY,
TO SHARE POWER, NOT IN A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT IN
WHICH THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP WOULD CHOOSE ITS
REPRESENTATIVES, BUT IN A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT IN WHICH
THE MDC WOULD DESIGNATE ZANU-PF MEMBERS TO SERVE IN ITS
CABINET. HE EXPRESSED CONCERNS THAT ZANU-PF, WHILE
SAYING IT WAS PREPARED TO LIVE WITH A LOSS, DID NOT
APPEAR READY TO DO SO. INSTEAD, ZANU-PF APPEARED READY
TO USE DEMONSTRATIONS AND PUBLIC PRESSURE BY
ORCHESTRATED ZANU-PF GROUPS TO PREVENT AN MDC ASSUMPTION
OF POWER AND MIGHT ALSO CALL UPON THE MILITARY TO
PREVENT AN MDC ASSUMPTION OF POWER. NDOU DID NOT THINK
THAT THE GOZ COULD CREDIBLY ARREST AND CHARGE TSVANGIRAI
FOR TREASON OR ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION IN THE WAKE OF AN
MDC VICTORY. HE BELIEVED THAT SUCH A TACTIC WOULD BE
TOO TRANSPARENT TO BE ACCEPTABLE. NDOU ALSO SAID THAT
THE WHOLE ASSASSINATION PLOT ALLEGATION WAS NOT
CREDIBLE, ALTHOUGH HE EXPRESSED DISMAY THAT TSVANGIRAI
COULD HAVE ALLOWED HIMSELF TO BE SET UP IN THIS FASHION.


5. (C) IN THE EVENT OF A NARROW ZANU-PF VICTORY, TAINTED
BY ELECTORAL VIOLENCE AND FRAUD, NDOU FEARED PUBLIC
DEMONSTRATIONS BY THE MDC AND ITS SUPPORTERS. HE DID
NOT BELIEVE THAT SUCH DEMONSTRATIONS COULD BE SUCCESSFUL
AND ANTICIPATED THAT THE GOZ WOULD DO WHATEVER IT TOOK
TO BRING THEM UNDER CONTROL.

6.(C) SOUTH AFRICAN RESPONSES
--------------
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 00565 02 OF 02 041515Z

NDOU SAID THAT THE SAG WAS PREPARED TO ACT TO PREVENT
ZANU-PF FRUSTRATION OF AN MDC VICTORY. HE SAID THAT
PRESIDENT MBEKI WOULD BE FOLLOWING EVENTS CLOSELY AND
WOULD BE READY TO MAKE CONTACTS. HE ALSO SAID THAT SADF
LEADERS HAD GOOD ACCESS AND RELATIONS WITH ZDF
COMMANDERS AND COULD ALSO COUNSEL AGAINST ANTI-
DEMOCRATIC OR VIOLENT ACTIONS. NDOU WAS LESS CERTAIN
WHAT THE SAG WOULD DO IN THE EVENT OF A ZANU-PF VICTORY
BY FRAUD OR MANIPULATION, NOTING THAT THE ZANU-PF WOULD
BE UNLIKELY TO ACCEPT ANY CALL FOR A NEW ELECTION.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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