MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000556

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S

NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/02
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PHUM KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY
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PAGE 02 HARARE 00556 01 OF 02 020823Z

REF: HARARE 543 (NOTAL)

CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. IN ADDITION TO THE SUPREME COURT
DECISION STRIKING DOWN ELECTORAL LAW AMENDMENTS
(REFTEL),THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF LEGAL AND OTHER
ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PAST 48 HOURS. A HIGH
COURT JUDGEMENT ON DUAL NATIONALITY AND A SUPREME COURT
RULING ON VOTING BY CONSTITUENCIES HAVE CLARIFIED THESE
ISSUES, ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY TOO LATE IN THE PROCESS
TO HAVE ANY PRACTICAL EFFECT. JUSTICE MINISTER
CHINAMASA CONFIRMED OUR ANALYSIS (REFTEL) THAT HE
INTENDS TO RUN THE ELECTIONS AS HE WISHES, COURT RULINGS
NOTWITHSTANDING. THE CONFUSION SURROUNDING THE
ELECTORAL PROCESS HAS BEEN FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE
ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION'S (ESC) FAILURE TO
RELEASE THE LIST OF POLLING PLACES, WHICH IN TURN WOULD
TRIGGER THE RELEASE OF THE NAMES OF POLLING AGENTS AND
PRESIDING OFFICERS. THE EMERGING "CHAOS" AROUND THE
ELECTORAL PROCESS IS BEING ORCHESTRATED BY THE GOZ TO
FAVOR ZANU-PF. END SUMMARY.

LEGAL DEVELOPMENTS
--------------

2. (C) A HIGH COURT RULING AND A SUPREME COURT RULING
HAVE CLARIFIED TWO ISSUES THAT HAVE DOGGED THE
ZIMBABWEAN POLITICAL CLIMATE FOR MONTHS. THE HIGH COURT
RULED PROVISIONALLY ON THE CONTROVERSIAL DUAL
NATIONALITY ISSUE, WHICH HAS FORCED THOUSANDS OF DUAL
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NATIONAL ZIMBABWEANS TO RENOUNCE ONE OR THE OTHER OF
THEIR HOMELANDS. (THE OPPOSITION HAS REPEATEDLY CHARGED
THAT ZANU-PF ENGINEERED THIS INITIATIVE TO
DISENFRANCHISE SEVERAL MILLION POTENTIAL VOTERS WHO ARE
COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS WITH ROOTS IN NEIGHBORING
COURTRIES, OR SETTLERS OF NON_AFRICAN ANCESTRY.) THE
HIGH COURT EXTENDED THE ALREADY PASSED DEADLINE FOR
RENUNCIATION BY SIX MONTHS, AN INTERIM RULING THAT
PRESUMABLY WOULD BE WELCOMED BY THE MDC. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE SUPREME COURT OVERTURNED A HIGH COURT RULING
THAT COMPELLED THE REGISTRAR GENERAL (RG) TO COMPILE A
NATIONAL LIST AND PERMIT NATIONAL, RATHER THAN
CONSTITUENCY LEVEL, VOTING FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION. SCORE ONE FOR ZANU-PF.

CHINAMASA SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT
--------------

3. (C) IN AN EXTENDED LIVE INTERVIEW ON ZBC TELEVISION
EVENING NEWS, JUSTICE MINISTER CHINAMASA CONFIRMED OURS
SUSPICIONS THAT HE WILL FORGE AHEAD ON ELECTORAL
PLANNING AS HE CHOOSES, AND DAMN THE COURTS. CHINAMASA
STATED, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE OBLIQUELY, THAT THE GOZ
WILL EMPLOY PRESIDENTIAL DIRECTIVES TO RUN THE ELECTION
ALONG THE SAME LINES ENVISAGED BY THE AMENDED ELECTORAL
ACT THAT THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK DOWN.

THE CATCH 22 POLLING STATION CONUNDRUM
--------------

4. (C) IN A MEETING WITH INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, AS
REPORTED BY THE EU, THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE ESC MORE OR
LESS STATED THAT THE ESC IS EMPOWERED BY LAW TO PUT
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POLLING STATIONS WHERE THEY ARE NEEDED. BY LOGICAL
EXTENSION, THEY MAY ALSO REMOVE THEM FROM WHERE THEY ARE
NOT WANTED. HE WOULD NEITHER CONFIRM NOR DENY THAT
POLLING STATION NUMBERS WILL BE REDUCED IN MDC
STRONGHOLDS AND INCREASED IN ZANU-PF TERRITORY, BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE. IT IS THUS FAR IMPOSSIBLE TO
SAY, SINCE NEITHER THE RG NOR ESC HAVE RELEASED A LIST
OF DESIGNATED POLLING PLACES. THIS IN TURN HAS
PREVENTED ANYONE FROM OBTAINING NAMES OF POLLING AGENTS
AND PRESIDING OFFICERS, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING PROGRESS ON
PLANNING WHERE AND HOW TO DEPLOY INTERNATIONAL/LOCAL
MONITORS AND POLITICAL PARTY AGENTS ON THE VOTING DAYS.

COMMENT
--------------

5. (C) WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF A CAREFULLY
ORCHESTRATED SCHEME TO OBSCURE THE ELECTIONS BENEATH A
VEIL OF DISORDER AND UNCERTAINTY. THE HIGH COURT RULING
ON DUAL NATIONALITY MEANS NOTHING, ONE WEEK AWAY FROM
THE VOTE, SINCE THE VOTER ROLLS ARE PRESUMABLY CLOSED
FOR THOSE PROBABLE MDC SUPPORTERS WHO HAVE THEORETICALLY
RECEIVED A JUDICIAL REPRIEVE FROM DISENFRANCHISEMENT.
THE CONSTITUENCY DECISION IS MORE OF A TWO-EDGED SWORD

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8470

PAGE 01 HARARE 00556 02 OF 02 020823Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00
AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00
TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W
-------------- 6E5D2E 020823Z /38
O 020812Z MAR 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1077
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000556

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S

NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/02
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PHUM KDEM ZI
SUBJECT: MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00556 02 OF 02 020823Z

AND THUS HARDER TO COMPREHEND FROM THE ZANU-PF
PERSPECTIVE. IT WOULD SEEM TO BE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO
DISCOURAGE INTIMIDATED AND DISLOCATED MDC SUPPORTERS
FROM RETURNING TO VOTE IN THEIR HOME CONSTITUENCIES, BUT
IT WOULD ALSO SERVE TO COMPLICATE ZANU-PF ATTEMPTS TO
BRING IN OUTSIDERS TO VOTE IN CONSTITUENCIES OTHER THAN
THEIR OWN. FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, THE GOZ HAS SET THE
STAGE TO SUPPORT THEIR EFFORTS TO TILT THE VOTE AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE IN FAVOR OF ZANU-PF WHILE ATTEMPTING,
THROUGH THE FOG OF CONFUSION, TO MAINTIAN A PRETEXT THAT
THEY HAVE NOT OUTRIGHT STOLEN THE ELECTION. THE CAT AND
MOUSE GAME WITH OBSERVERS AND DOMESTIC CSOS CONTINUES,
WITH ZANU-PF AND CHINAMASA DETERMINING THE RULES. END
SUMMARY.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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