U.S. OIL FIRMS COULD GET SQUEEZED

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002544

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2012
TAGS: ECON EFIN EPET ZI
SUBJECT: U.S. OIL FIRMS COULD GET SQUEEZED

REF: HARARE 2397


1. (C) Summary: Indigenous firms are pressing the GoZ to let
them take over business from foreign oil firms, according to
Mobil officials. However, the company reps were subsequently
encouraged by subsequent GoZ assurances on Tuesday that
multinational investment should be protected. End Summary.

Fuel Import: Transition to What?
--------------

2. (C) Mobil officials updated Amb Sullivan and econoff on
developments since President Mugabe announced two weeks ago
that the GoZ can no longer subsidize fuel imports (ref).
Through parastatal NOCZIM, Zimbabwe currently absorbs about
90 percent of the fuel cost, enabling operators to sell
unleaded gas for about U.S.$.16/gallon. Since Mugabe's
remarks, Energy Minister Nicholus Kitikiti has hosted a
series of meetings with the 5 multinationals and 16
indigenous operators. According to Mobil, these encounters
turned progressively rancorous, with indigenous firms
advocating fiercely for expanded market share and
multinationals insisting that they had to operate within
their existing framework agreement with Government.
Indigenous operators and ZANU-PF MP Philip Chiyanguta was
allocated major air time on state TV to argue that indigenous
operators should receive all of NOCZIM's fuel imports and
that multinationals should sell off their service stations to
indigenous operators. Multinationals -- which include Mobil
(ExxonMobil) and Caltex (ChevronTexaco) -- walked out of a
Nov. 8 meeting that ended in a shouting match. Indigenous
operators apparently accused the Energy Minister of
undermining Mugabe's new fuel policy. In a separate meeting
without indigenous firms on Tuesday, the Minister apologized
and agreed that foreign investment should be protected.


3. (C) Mobil reps were pleased by the Minister's reaction,
hoping it reflects a change-of-heart by President Mugabe
since they had in the interim passed their analysis to him in
a special channel. However, they still fear the GoZ could
decide to subsidize fuel only for indigenous operators. That
would mean gas stations owned by multinationals would sell
fuel for 6-10 times as much as those owned by locals setting
the stage for a poisonous situation. As the lines for
cheaper fuel grew unbearable at indigenous stations, the GoZ
could argue that multinational stations were underutilized
and turn them over to local companies.

Comment
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4. (C) Should such a scenario come to pass, Mobil reps
indicated they may ask the Embassy to "go to bat" for the
company. While expropriation is only one of many scenarios,
an uncompensated expropriation of Mobil or Caltex assets
would be a grave matter. As an additional complicating
factor, Mobil officials felt the 5 multinationals may not
remain unified throughout a shake-down, so conceivably Mobil
and Caltex could end up on different sides, as could Total,
BP and Shell.


5. (C) In any event, we cannot emphasize enough the
seriousness of Zimbabwe's fuel shortage. Companies are
currently being allocated about 50 percent of their needs by
NOCZIM. Any international price increase resulting from a
Persian Gulf war would further exacerbate the crisis. Mobil
reps estimate that the GoZ's fuel subsidy presently costs US$
30 million/month. Annualized, that's as much as 8 percent of
Zimbabwe's rapidly shrinking GDP. Unless the GoZ can locate
a new source of fuel or foreign exchange, the subsidy is
unsustainable.
SULLIVAN