Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02HARARE2193
2002-10-01 12:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

ZANU-PF APPEARS HEADED FOR LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN

Tags:  PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI ZANU PF 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002193 

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICAN DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF APPEARS HEADED FOR LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN
LOCAL ELECTIONS

REF: HARARE 2087

Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002193

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICAN DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF APPEARS HEADED FOR LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN
LOCAL ELECTIONS

REF: HARARE 2087

Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Voter turnout was low in Zimbabwe's nationwide rural
council elections September 28-29, and early returns suggest
a likely landslide victory by the ruling ZANU-PF, not
surprising given pre-election violence, intimidation, and
electoral manipulation. The GOZ stepped up efforts to
diminish outside scrutiny of the electoral process, including
barring most local independent observers and opposition
representatives from the polling stations. In addition,
government officials refused to share any election-related
information with informal observer teams from Harare-based
diplomatic missions, including the United States, saying they
had been instructed not to engage in such discussions.
Incidents of violence and harassment against MDC supporters
and officials, including the arrest of an opposition
parliamentarian, were reported on the voting days.
Government-procured food assistance is being used for
political gain by ZANU-PF, while cases of malnutrition among
children and adults increases dramatically. End Summary.

General Climate
--------------


2. (C) Three observer teams from Harare-based diplomatic
missions, including three U.S. diplomats, deployed to hot
spots, beginning two-three days before the nationwide rural
council elections held September 28-29. One team covered the
province of Manicaland, while the other two travelled to key
areas in Matabeleland North and South; in total, the teams
visited approximately a tenth of Zimbabwe's 120 electoral
constituencies. Common themes emerged from the experiences
of all three teams: food assistance distributed by
government is regularly manipulated to give political
advantage to ZANU-PF; cases of malnutrition and related
infirmities in children and adults have risen dramatically;
violence and intimidation against MDC supporters continue to
be problems, although the numbers of incidents have declined

somewhat since the presidential election; and the ruling
party has manipulated the rules to tilt the electoral process
heavily in its favor.

Initial Results
--------------


3. (U) Reftel reported that the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC) was unable to field candidates for
even half of the approximately 1400 seats being contested in
the rural council elections, due primarily to GOZ-sanctioned
violence and intimidation and manipulation of the electoral
rules. The MDC's effort to delay the elections for those
seats for which it had been unable to nominate candidates was
dismissed by a High Court judge on September 27. Initial
returns for the 600-some seats that were contested showed
ZANU-PF winning 72 of 86 by comfortable margins. The MDC won
12, all in its stronghold of Matabeleland, although the
majority of announced seats even in that region were won by
the ruling party. Two seats went to independents. ZANU-PF
has swept the seats announced so far in Masvingo and
Mashonaland Central provinces. The MDC won two seats on the
city council of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second-largest city,
changing the ZANU/MDC balance on that council to 16/11, with
two independents. We expect final results to be announced
sometime on October 1 and predict an overwhelming victory by
the ruling party.

Low turnout
--------------


4. (C) On the first day of voting, our teams witnessed
mostly empty polling stations, where few people appeared to
be casting ballots. Rindai Chipfunde, national coordinator
of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) -- a grouping
of NGOs interested in maintaining the integrity and
transparency of elections -- confirmed that voter turnout
nationwide was very low, a phenomenon she attributed
primarily to a lack of information about the elections.
Many people, she said, had been unaware that elections were
being held. In addition, we suspect that violence and
intimidation had an effect, as well as the voter apathy which
normally accompanies local elections. It will be interesting
to see whether the final election results confirm a low
turnout.

Electoral manipulation
--------------


5. (C) Reftel described a litany of tactics used by the
ruling party in advance of the rural council elections to
block the registration of MDC candidates and generally tilt
the process heavily in its favor. While in the field, we
learned of other devices used. No MDC campaign rallies had
been permitted, for instance, in the Matabeleland North
constituencies of Tsholotsho, Nkayi, and Silobela in the
pre-election period, so the opposition party was forced to
conduct discreet, door-to-door compaigning where possible.
In addition, the Registrar-General has refused to provide
copies of the voters rolls to the MDC, as required by law, so
the opposition had no idea how many people had registered to
vote. This issue was of particular concern in Insiza
constituency, where an important parliamentary by-election
will be held in late October to replace a deceased MDC MP.
The MDC's elections coordinator for Matabeleland and Midlands
provinces claimed that large numbers of outsiders were being
transported to Insiza in army trucks to register to vote and
it was impossible to analyze who they were without a copy of
the voters roll.


6. (C) ZANU-PF also stepped up efforts to block independent
scrutiny of the electoral process, including on the voting
days themselves. ZESN applied to have 5,000 observers
accredited, approximately four per polling station. In the
end, the GOZ accredited only 209, a token number that ensured
no meaningful observation effort could be conducted.
According to ZESN's Rindai Chipfunde, even accredited
observers were prevented from entering polling stations in
Hurungwe West (Mashonaland West province),where a
parliamentary by-election was being held the same weekend,
Bindura (Mashonaland Central province),and Gutu (Masvingo
province). One of our teams visited three polling stations
in Insiza constituency on the first day of voting; MDC
polling agents were excluded at two of them because the
presiding officers said they had not been officially
registered, while we were unable to confirm the presence of
MDC representatives at the third center. The presiding
officers at the first two stations -- one of whom was visibly
uneasy and the other openly hostile -- told embassy observers
they had been given specific instructions not to share any
information with us. For the latter official, that directive
apparently included provision of his own name and the name of
the particular polling station to which he was assigned. The
day before the election, the central government's senior
official in the Matabeleland North town of Lupane -- the
district administrator -- freely shared information with us
about the food shortage. When we raised the local
elections, he said he had been told that that was not an
issue he could discuss. Late on September 30, MDC national
elections coordinator Nomore Sibanda told political section
chief that he had received numerous reports of exclusion of
MDC polling agents. He was trying to get a sense of the
national scope of the problem, but spotty communication with
the party's representatives in the more isolated geographic
regions made this difficult.

Violence/intimidation
--------------


7. (C) Reftel reported a number of incidents of violence and
intimidation against aspiring MDC candidates and party
supporters during the pre-election period. All of the areas
visited by our three teams had experienced significant
political violence -- targeted predominantly at MDC
supporters -- in the run-up to the presidential election in
March. The general level of political violence had declined
since then in the five constituencies we observed in
Matabeleland North and South, but a general climate of fear
and tension was palpable in all of those areas. The
Chipinge/Chimanimani region in southeastern Zimbabwe,
however, continued to experience politically-motivated
violence in the run-up to the election and on the voting days
themselves. A German doctor at the hospital in Chipinge told
us that, during the several weeks prior to the local
elections, she had treated approximately 10 people for
fractures and bruising that appeared attributable to
political violence.


8. (C) Nomore Sibanda of the MDC shared with us preliminary
evidence the party had gathered on violence and harassment
occurring on the voting days. The following incidents are
only a few revealing examples drawn from Sibanda's much more
substantial list:

--ZANU-PF militia members assaulted MDC polling agent Godfrey
Nyarota at a polling center in Ward 35 of Chipinge North
(Manicaland province),while the MDC's aspiring council
candidate was chased away from the same center.

--In Chipinge North's Ward 31, known MDC supporters had their
national identification cards -- necessary for voting --
confiscated at most polling stations, while ZANU-PF youths
allegedly wearing police uniforms barred MDC polling agents
from entering Madziwa polling station.

--The senior police officer in the area (Chief Superintendent
Mabunda, who is known to the embassy as a principal
instigator of political violence in the Chipinge/Chimanimani
area) appeared at Mwacheta primary school in Chipinge South
wearing ZANU-PF regalia and threatening to shoot anyone who
voted for the MDC. MDC officials were barred from entering
that polling station.

--In Chipinge South's Ward 4, MDC candidate Menard Mishape
was kidnapped by war veterans on the eve of the elections and
is still missing.

--MDC Member of Parliament Roy Bennett and his wife were
arrested on September 29. His wife has since been released
but Bennett remains in custody.

--In Gutu North (Masvingo),ZANU-PF supporters destroyed the
shop of MDC member Mr. Makamure.

--In Gutu South, some houses belonging to MDC supporters were
burnt to the ground.

--The MDC's candidates in Zaka East (Masvingo),Jekede and
Mujere Nososo, were beaten in their homes by ZANU-PF militia
on the eve of the elections.

--In Murehwa South (Mashonaland East),10 MDC polling agents
were assaulted by war veterans as they attempted to deploy to
polling stations on the first day of voting.

Food politicization
--------------


9. (C) All three of our diplomatic observer teams heard
numerous accounts of government-procured food assistance
being used to boost the political fortunes of the ruling
party. In many of the rural areas we visited, the GOZ's
Grain Marketing Board (GMB) provided bags of maize meal to
ZANU-PF councillors to use in their campaign efforts.
Another common tactic employed by ZANU-PF was to announce
the distribution of food in the vicinity of, and at the
precise time of, an MDC rally. Hungry people understandably
chose to attend the food distribution event, but were often
turned away empty-handed once the nearby MDC rally had come
to an end. In addition, we heard reports from Amani Trust, a
prominent human rights organization, and ordinary residents,
of the GMB selling food only to those who produced ZANU-PF
membership cards, or making it very difficult for known MDC
supporters to purchase it. J.J. Moyo of Amani Trust (please
protect) claimed that fewer children are attending school in
Lupane, in Matabeleland North, and have been forced to find
piecemeal jobs in order to help their families buy food. He
also said that a number of children in Binga, in northwest
Zimbabwe, had died recently after eating a poisonous root.
One polling station we visited in Insiza constituency in
Matabeleland South was normally used as a GMB depot, and we
observed that some voters were given food after casting
ballots, while others were not. An independent council
candidate told us that ZANU-PF had promised to give food to
those who voted for it.


10. (C) Cases of malnutrition are increasing in
Matabeleland and Manicaland. At St. Lukes Mission Hospital
about 100 km north of the city of Bulawayo, the resident
German doctor told us he has witnessed a dramatic rise in the
numbers of adults and children affected by malnutrition in
the last two months, and showed us a ward set aside for those
cases. The image was sobering. All the toddlers were
terribly thin, several were suffering from skin lesions and
swelling attributable to protein deficiency, and at least one
had the telltale sign of reddish hair. The doctor said he
expected all of these children to die from either HIV/AIDS,
which afflicted 80-90 percent of the hospital's patients, or
malnutrition. In the meantime, he had enrolled these
patients in a supplementary feeding program, but the success
of this effort was complicated by the worsening food
shortage.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Rural areas have long been ZANU-PF's stronghold, and
the ruling party was not about to allow the MDC to gain any
significant inroads there. The fact that ZANU-PF felt it
necessary to employ an array of unashamed tactics --
including blocking the opposition from even contesting half
the seats -- suggests a realization that the party no longer
enjoys unparalled popularity in rural areas. Given that the
ruling party has succeeded in terrorizing large segments of
the rural population -- our observer teams witnessed that
first-hand in all of the areas we visited -- it is, frankly,
a wonder that anyone had the courage to cast a vote for the
opposition.


12. (C) ZANU-PF has clearly perfected the art of winning
elections, which they will continue to hold to cloak their
move toward totalitarianism with a veneer of democracy. The
party cannot, however, avoid the reality that legitimacy is
not conferred by an election in which the opposition and its
supporters are subjected to massive intimidation and blocked
from engaging in a genuine competition. The unavoidable fact
remains that this is a deeply unpopular regime that will grow
even more so as people's living standards continue to erode
precipitously.




SULLIVAN