NATIONWIDE LOCAL ELECTIONS A DEMOCRATIC CHARADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002087

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: NATIONWIDE LOCAL ELECTIONS A DEMOCRATIC CHARADE


Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).


1. (U) Action request -- see para 10.

Summary
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2. (C) Nationwide rural council elections are scheduled for
September 28-29, and the Government of Zimbabwe has used all
the means at its disposal to block genuine competition from
the opposition MDC. Aspiring MDC candidates have been
arrested on frivolous charges, assaulted, forced to flee
their residences, and subjected to unfair nomination
requirements. As a result, the MDC has been able to field
only 646 candidates for more than 1400 contested seats. The
MDC is seeking a judicial order to delay the elections,
citing the widespread physical abuse and procedural
manipulation. The government has used every trick in the
book to block nomination of MDC candidates, while claiming in
its media mouthpieces that the MDC's failure to nominate
candidates is evidence of the party's declining popularity.
This outrageous process has descended to the level of low
farce, and the Department may wish to consider issuing a
statement critical of the Government's ongoing efforts to
subvert democracy so brazenly. End Summary.

Local council elections -- when, what, and where
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3. (U) Elections for 1438 rural council seats nationwide
will be held September 28-29. Rural councils do not have a
great deal of authority in Zimbabwe's centralized system of
governance. They do collect some funds via assessment of
"development levies" and manage small amounts of resources at
the local level. The primary significance of the elections,
however, is the political message that will be sent by the
outcome. The ruling party is determined to demonstrate that
it continues to have rural areas locked down. For its part,
the MDC will want to show some penetration of ZANU-PF's
traditional geographic stronghold.

Violence and harrassment
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4. (U) According to a September 3 press statement issued by
MDC Elections Director Paul Themba-Nyathi, more than 20
aspiring MDC councillors have been "assaulted, harassed, and
tortured" in the run-up to the council elections. In one
incident, the party's deputy organizing secretary for
Midlands South, Anthony Chamahwinya, was hospitalized after a
severe beating at the hands of ZANU-PF supporters on
September 1. At the time of the attack, Chamahwinya
reportedly was distributing nomination papers for his party's
prospective candidates. An MDC candidate in Mount Darwin
south, in Mashonaland Central province, was abducted by
alleged members of ZANU-PF's youth militia and has not been
seen since. Some candidates have withdrawn from the race in
the face of such intimidation, understandably fearing for
their lives. 36 candidates in Midlands South have pulled
out, while 10 have abandoned races in Masvingo province. In
addition, according to Themba-Nyathi, more than 70 MDC
candidates and key party officials involved in the campaign
have been arrested on trumped-up charges, mostly in
Manicaland and Mashonaland Central provinces. An unspecified
number of candidates and party officials have been forced to
flee their homes, while those who have braved the threats of
violence are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to
campaign openly. According to press reports, 63 MDC
candidates in Manicaland have withdrawn from the race, citing
assaults and intimidation.

Nomination skulduggery
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5. (U) Election officials have also erected significant
obstacles in the candidate registration process itself.
Large numbers of MDC candidates have been disqualified on
frivolous grounds, after they failed to present supporting
documentation not required by Zimbabwean law. (The "Rural
District Councils Act" requires only that candidates prove
they are Zimbabwean citizens, registered voters, and
residents of the ward in which they are running.) The most
common tactic was to demand presentation of long birth
certificates on September 5, the national day of nomination.
Most Zimbabweans have a short-form birth certificate, and it
takes several weeks to coax the longer, more detailed version
out of the Registrar-General's office. ZANU-PF candidates
either were given adequate advance notice of this requirement
or were not asked to comply. In other cases, election
officials demanded proof of tax payments, while access to the
nomination court was blocked by war veterans and ZANU-PF
supporters in several other instances. Many nomination
centers were moved from government offices to police
stations, an effective intimidatory tactic given the role of
the police in suppressing MDC supporters. (Comment: As the
economy continues to decline and ZANU-PF's popularity erodes,
the ruling party might use this tactic in future elections,
simply manufacturing reasons to prevent the placement of MDC
candidates on the ballot. End Comment.)
Government spin
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6. (U) The ruling party's comprehensive "campaign" efforts
have succeeded in ensuring that the MDC has been able to
field candidates for only 646 seats, less than half the
number being contested. The Government-controlled media
have, without any apparent sense of shame, heralded this
development as a sign of the MDC's imminent demise.

To boycott or not to boycott
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7. (C) Some observers have urged the MDC to boycott the
election, contending that the party's participation merely
lends legitimacy to a deeply flawed process. The entire
party leadership, however, appears determined to go forward,
no matter how flawed the process. MDC Secretary-General
Welshman Ncube told us the national executive had discussed
the possibility of a boycott, but had decided in the end that
the party owed it to those supporters and candidates who have
put their lives on the line to participate. The party's
national elections coordinator insisted to us that a boycott
was never seriously considered, and that participating
demonstrates the party's commitment to achieving change
through democratic means. Political analyst John Makumbe
said he had advised the MDC not to waste too much time and
resources campaigning, but that contesting was important
because the party had to "keep the fire burning." David
Coltart, a Member of Parliament and the MDC's Shadow Justice
Minister, told us that the party is seeking a delay of the
elections in the High Court, citing the array of
irregularities to date, but he was not optimistic of a
favorable ruling.

Plans for Observation
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8. (C) The Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN),a
coalition of NGOs committed to guaranteeing the integrity of
elections, plans to deploy observers for the rural council
elections. It has applied to the GOZ-appointed Electoral
Supervisory Commission for accreditation of 5,000 observers,
but expects to receive approval for only half that number,
and at the very last minute. Asked where he would recommend
the Embassy send observers, ZESN Chairman Reginald
Matchaba-Hove suggested Matabeleland, Manicaland, and
Midlands, saying those provinces were the only ones in which
the MDC had been able to field significant numbers of
candidates.

Comment
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9. (C) These elections are little more than a charade, as
the ruling party has used almost every trick in the book to
tilt the process overwhelmingly in its favor. (The GOZ has
clearly come to the conclusion that giving voters a choice
when food supplies are dwindling might not produce a pleasing
result.) For that reason, we have no plans to mount a
significant in-house observation effort, but likely will send
several Embassy officers to cover constituencies that appear
to be up-for-grabs. We agree that the MDC ought to
participate where it can, so that it continues to be
perceived as a credible democratic alternative to an
increasingly unpopular regime and because it stands the
chance of picking up some seats in rural areas, particularly
the MDC's stronghold of Matabeleland. The MDC can portray
any inroads it makes into rural areas, no matter how small,
as evidence of expanding popular appeal.

Action request
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10. (C) Preparations for the rural council elections have
gotten virtually no coverage from the international media,
and the GOZ has taken advantage of this lack of scrutiny to
make a mockery of the democratic process. Shining the
international spotlight on the violence and irregularities
associated with the local elections could restrain some of
the worst excesses by GOZ supporters and give cover to voters
inclined to cast ballots for the MDC but who are currently
scared to do so. We recommend the Department:

--consider issuing a public statement now expressing serious
concern about the violence, intimidation, and range of
irregularities witnessed to date, and urging the GOZ to
facilitate the registration of all interested candidates. We
might want to tie a refusal to address our concerns to
expansion of targeted sanctions, such as an announcement of
asset seizure;

--encourage regional governments to weigh in with the GOZ,
stressing the importance of holding an election that is
consistent with the SADC norms and standards;

--issue a final statement after the election providing a
judgment on whether it was free and fair. Such an
assessment, of course, will depend on whether the environment
continues to be as destructive as it is now, and on the
outcome.
SULLIVAN