NEW CABINET "ROTTEN TO THE CORE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001992

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR NEARY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: NEW CABINET "ROTTEN TO THE CORE"


Classified By: Political Officer Kimberly Jemison. Reasons: 1.5 (B) an
d (D).

Summary
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1. (C) In an August 26 meeting, Eddison Zvobgo, an elder
statesman in ZANU-PF, provided insight into the Cabinet
reshuffle and pressure points for the international community
to pursue and he commented on the food situation, the Public
Order and Security Act, and the likelihood of a new
constitutional amendment to name a successor. Zvobgo said
the Cabinet and ZANU-PF politburo function merely as rubber
stamps for Mugabe's decisions and he predicted the political
and economic crisis will worsen. He was unsure of next steps
from the international community but did say that comments
akin to those delivered by Assistant Secretary Kansteiner and
using NEPAD as leverage to encourage other African leaders to
do more on Zimbabwe would go a long way towards isolating and
increasing pressure on Mugabe. He also claimed that South
Africa has been providing Zimbabwe with electricity free of
charge for the last six months. End Summary.

Cabinet Reshuffle
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2. (C) On August 26, Polchief and Poloff met with Eddison
Zvobgo, an elder statesman in the ruling party who has been
estranged from President Mugabe since 2000. Zvobgo said
the new cabinet is "rotten to the core" and is comprised
exclusively of yes-men and yes-women, a sign that the
political and economic crises will get worse. According to
Zvobgo, the Cabinet and ZANU-PF politburo now function merely
as rubber stamps for Mugabe's decisions, and never engage in
any genuine discussions of how to extricate Zimbabwe from its
current plight.

Succession Scenarios
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3. (C) Polchief noted the requirement in Zimbabwe's
constitution that an election be held within 90 days after
the presidency becomes vacant, and asked whether President
Mugabe intends to push through an amendment allowing his
successor to fill out the remaining years of his mandate.
Zvobgo, who chairs Parliament's legal committee, was
dismissive, saying that the ruling party does not have the
two-thirds majority in Parliament necessary for approval of
such an amendment. All ZANU-PF MPs would likely vote in
favor, Zvobgo thought, but it was unlikely that any MDC
parliamentarians would cross the aisle. (Comment: We have
heard from several sources that the ruling party is trying,
with financial inducements, to lure several MDC legislators
to support such an amendment. We would not be surprised if
Zvobgo is unaware of such efforts. End Comment.) Since such
an effort would almost certainly fail, Zvobgo predicted,
Mugabe likely will serve his full six-year term. Although
ZANU-PF had stolen the presidential election, Mugabe and his
inner circle are not convinced they could steal another one.


Food Shortages
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4. (C) Zvobgo described the food situation in his home
constituency of Masvingo south as "frightening" and said the
shortages in most rural areas of Masvingo province are
"terrible and getting worse." He was frustrated with his
inability to help his hungry constituents and criticized the
GOZ's Grain Marketing Board for attempting to provide food
assistance only to ZANU-PF supporters. He claimed that
ZANU-PF supporters are bearing the brunt of food shortages,
since they are concentrated in rural districts, while MDC
supporters, concentrated primarily in urban areas, are in
much better shape. Zvobgo expressed hope that the food
crisis would soon overwhelm GOZ's capacity to respond,
resulting in NGO's carrying the predominant load in
distributing food, a development he anticipated would
minimize incidents of people going hungry because of their
political affiliation.

Selective application of rule of law
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5. (C) Zvobgo condemned the GOZ's repression of the
opposition MDC and its supporters, saying the degree of
intolerance is "absolutely amazing." He said the Public
Order and Security Act requires only that groups "notify"
police four days in advance of any public gathering, but
police are interpreting this provision as giving them the
right to grant or deny permission for such events. In recent
weeks, Zvobgo said, police are not allowing any MDC meetings
or rallies to take place. He also lamented continued
selective application of the law, noting that ZANU-PF
supporters who break the law usually go scot-free.

Pressure points
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6. (C) Zvobgo said remarks of the kind delivered recently by
Assistant Secretary Kansteiner are helpful in isolating and
increasing pressure on Mugabe. Kansteiner's comments, he
said, engendered anger and anxiety among those in the inner
circle. Asked what additional steps he thought the U.S.
should take on Zimbabwe, Zvobgo suggested expelling the
children of those responsible for the country's political and
economic crises, and providing as much food as possible to
rural areas, which were facing an "absolute calamity."

7. (C) NEPAD, Zvobgo suggested, should be used as leverage
to encourage President Obasanjo and Mbeki to do more on
Zimbabwe. Other potentially useful pressure points, he said,
are Zimbabwe's inability to cover its external debt,
particularly its lack of resources to purchase fuel and
electricity. Zvobgo claimed that South Africa has been
supplying Zimbabwe with electricity free of charge for the
last six months, and he wondered how much longer the South
African government would be willing and able to continue that
arrangement.

Comment
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8. (C) The 60-something Zvobgo looked even more tired and
frail than usual. He and his wife planned to travel to Cape
Town the following morning for several weeks of R&R and
medical consultations. He seemed at a loss as to what steps
might force Mugabe to step back from the brink but believed,
as do most observers, that South Africa and President Mbeki
can play a key role should they choose to do so. At the very
least, Zvobgo's claim that South Africa is supplying Zimbabwe
with electricity gratis certainly bears exploration.
SULLIVAN