MUGABE'S CABINET RESHUFFLE REWARDS LOYALTY, NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001943

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
PARIS FOR NEARY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2012
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE'S CABINET RESHUFFLE REWARDS LOYALTY, NOT
COMPETENCE

REF: HARARE 1872

Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 (
B) and (D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) In a long-anticipated move, President Mugabe named a
new Cabinet on August 24 that looks very much like the old
one, albeit with some portfolios shifted around. Finance
Minister Makoni and Health Minister Stamps were the only ones
dismissed, while two new Ministers (former Ambassador to the
U.S. and Chief Executive of the Zimbabwe Tourist Authority
Amos Midzi and former Cabinet member Witness Mangwende) and
six new deputy ministers were named. Two new ministries --
Energy and Power Development, and Small and Medium
Enterprises Development -- were created. Loyalty, not
competence, appeared to be the primary criterion for the
personnel moves, as Mugabe and his inner circle hunker down
in the face of increasing international and domestic
pressure. The new Cabinet is composed almost entirely of
Mugabe sycophants who will continue to lead Zimbabwe in the
same disastrous policy direction, perhaps with more zeal, and
even worse results (if the new Finance Minister is not up to
the task.) Mugabe's failure to appoint two new
Vice-Presidents, as expected, leaves observers in the dark
for now about his retirement and succession intentions. End
Summary.


2. (U) Those who have retained their Cabinet portfolios are
as follows:

Foreign Affairs: Stan Mudenge
Information and Publicity: Jonathan Moyo
Agriculture, Lands and Resettlement: Joseph Made
Justice, Legal, and Parliamentary Affairs: Patrick Chinamasa
Defense: Sydney Sekeramayi
Education, Sport, and Culture: Aeneas Chigwedere
Environment and Tourism: Francis Nhema
Local Government, Public Works, and National Housing:
Ignatius Chombo
Mines and Mining Development: Edward Chindori-Chininga
Public Service, Labor, and Social Welfare: July Moyo
Rural Resources and Water Development: Joyce Mujuru
Youth Development, Gender, and Employment Creation: Elliot
Manyika
State Security: Nicholas Goche

The remaining ministerial portfolios were distributed as
follows:

Home Affairs: Kembo Mohadi (formerly Deputy Minister of
Local Government)
Finance: Herbert Murerwa (formerly Minister of Industry and
International Trade)
Transport and Communications: Witness Mangwende
Health and Child Welfare: David Parirenyatwa (formerly Deputy
Health Minister)
Energy and Power Development: Amos Midzi
Small and Medium Enterprises Development: Sithembiso Nyoni
(formerly Minister for the Informal Sector)
Minister of State for State Enterprises and Parastatals: Paul
Mangwana (formerly Deputy Justice Minister)
Minister of State for Science and Technology Development:
Olivia Muchena (formerly Minister of State in VP Msika's
office)
Minister of State for Land Reform: Flora Bhuka (formerly
Minister of State in VP Muzenda's office)

Six new deputy ministers were appointed:

Industry and International Trade: Kenneth Manyonda
Mines and Mining Development: Jaison Machaya
Energy and Power Development: Reuben Marumahoko
Local Government, Public Works, and National Housing: Chief
Fortune Charumbira
Rural Resources and Water Development: Tinos Rusere
Small and Medium Scale Enterprises: Kenneth Mutiwekuziva


3. (C) Brian Raftopoulos, one of Zimbabwe's most perceptive
political analysts, described the reshuffle as a
"consolidation of Mugabe's position." He said it is clear
from the personnel moves that Mugabe is "digging in his
heels" and that we are unlikely to see any drawback from the
GOZ's current policy direction. Eddison Zvobgo, the
estranged ZANU-PF politician who was expelled by Mugabe from
the politburo in 2000 because of his willingness to stand up
to the Zimbabwean President, described the Cabinet changes in
less diplomatic terms in a discussion with us. He claimed
that every member of the new Cabinet is a "strident yes-man
or yes-woman" for President Mugabe. Cabinet and the ZANU-PF
politburo, he continued, have become mere rubber stamps for
Mugabe's decisions, and not a single member of those bodies
is prepared to challenge the Zimbabwean President.


4. (C) Comment: It is clear that political loyalty was the
prime -- if not exclusive -- criterion in the re-assignment
of ministerial portfolios. If competence had been a
consideration, the hapless Joseph Made, who denied until
recently the possibility of food shortages in Zimbabwe, would
have been forced to pack his bags, along with many of his
colleagues. The fact that Made and other loyal hardliners
such as Jonathan Moyo, Patrick Chinamasa, Ignatius Chombo,
and Elliot Manyika have been asked to stay is a clear
indication that the GOZ is not about to undertake any major
policy reversals. Makoni's removal strongly suggests that
the GOZ has no plans to infuse its economic decision-making
with any sense of rationality. In fact, if retread Finance
Minister Murerwa -- who preceded and now succeeds Makoni in
this position -- does not hold the line on fiscal restraint
and permit the cumbersome but still functional parallel
exchange rate system to continue, the economy could contract
even more rapidly and hyper-inflation set in. We interpret
the reshuffle as a circling of the wagons, as Mugabe hunkers
down with his most trusted subordinates in the face of
growing international and domestic pressure. President
Mugabe was widely expected to appoint two new Vice-Presidents
to replace incumbents Simon Muzenda and Joseph Msika. The
fact that he did not suggests that Mugabe and his inner
circle have not yet reached any definitive conclusions about
the issue of succession. John Nkomo's apparent demotion from
Home Affairs to a newly-created Minister of State for Special
Affairs position in the President's office, when he was
widely expected to be named Vice-President, suggests he has
lost ground in internal succession maneuvering.


5. (C) Comment continued: The timing of the reshuffle
likely was motivated in part by growing criticism that the
old Cabinet had no legal standing because its members were
not re-appointed after the March presidential election.
According to the Zimbabwean constitution, the offices of
Vice-President, Minister, and Deputy Minister become vacant
upon the assumption of office of a new President. Although
the question of whether Mugabe was a "new" president appears
open to interpretation, Mugabe likely wanted to avoid any
related judicial challenges. Zvobgo, who is an expert on
constitutional law, insisted that the old Cabinet should have
taken new oaths of office after the election, as Mugabe did.
He informed us that the legal parliamentary committee which
he chairs had rejected 47 decrees (statutory instruments)
issued since the election because the ministers who signed
them had no legal standing, and had vowed to make this an
issue when parliament resumes sitting in late September.
Zvobgo surmised that this is what drove Mugabe to reshuffle
the Cabinet when he did, a move which will give the new
Ministers sufficient time to re-issue those 47 decrees before
Parliament reconvenes.

Biographic information
--------------


6. (C) Detailed biographic information on all of the new
Cabinet members will follow septel. In the meantime, we
wanted to provide the following brief sketches:

Simba Makoni: Makoni had been living on borrowed time since
Mugabe publicly criticized as "saboteurs" and "enemies of the
state" anyone who advocated devaluation of the Zimbabwean
dollar, a small camp of which Makoni had been the most vocal
member. Since his appointment in 2000, Makoni had been a
lonely advocate within GOZ circles of rational economic
decision-making, and Mugabe likely tired of his willingness
to critcize -- regularly and publicly -- bad government
decisions.

Kembo Mohadi: Mohadi has engaged in efforts to politicize
food distribution. As reported reftel, he told NGOs
distributing food in Gwanda that they would have to follow
government directives and that their equipment would be taken
over by the GOZ. The fact that he is now, as Minister of
Home Affairs, in charge of Zimbabwe's police force, does not
inspire confidence that we will soon see a return to the rule
of law.

Witness Mangwende: ZANU-PF's deputy secretary for
administration, Mangwende has previously served in
Ministerial positions at Foreign Affairs, Information and
Publicity, and Land and Agriculture. Mangwende is a
hardliner who believes strongly in the moral rectitude of
ZANU-PF's fast track resettlement effort. In a June 2001
meeting between Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa and
incoming AF/S Director Scott Delisi, Mangwende made no
attempt at diplomatic niceties, rudely rejecting the validity
of U.S. interest in internal Zimbabwean developments.

SULLIVAN