UNDP-DONOR MEETING: MORE DOOM AND GLOOM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001901

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EX
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2012
TAGS: EAID ECON PHUM PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP-DONOR MEETING: MORE DOOM AND GLOOM


Classified By: DCM REWhitehead due to 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary. UNDP Resrep (and newly-named UN
Humanitarian Affairs Coordinator) to Zimbabwe Victor Angelo
met with donors on August 20 in a refreshingly frank session.
He listed upcoming events, including a proposed regional
scientific conference on GMO issues, and detailed where food
imports and agricultural production stand. None of the news
was good. Angelo announced a greater UN focus on monitoring
and a new UN and, allegedly, GOZ focus on displaced farm
workers. Angelo stressed that he continues to press to no
avail through his increasingly frayed lines of communications
with the GOZ for rational responses on policy questions, and
he asked for donor advice on what next steps he should
consider. There were comments from many donors about how
recent GOZ counter-sanctions could affect bilateral
humanitarian assistance programs. We approached Angelo to
discuss the details of the GMO conference, including
potential pitfalls. End summary.

Where Things Stand, What Waits Ahead



2. (SBU) Just returned from his holidays, Angelo said that he
would re-engage Minister of Public Service, Labor and Social
Welfare July Moyo in discussions on food assistance later in
the week. He described donor response to the humanitarian
food appeal as positive ) 43 percent of the total is
presently pledged ) but noted that the response to requests
for various health inputs (including drugs, foot and mouth
medicine, supplemental child feeding, and various non-food
commodities) has been anemic. He said that from June 1 to
August 6 the GOZ had brought in 153,000 MT of maize and had
taken delivery of an additional consignment of 200,000 MT in
the port of East London. He was skeptical about GOZ claims
that it will import 1,000,000 MT of maize during the calendar
year. Angelo doubted that there will be sufficient forex to
achieve this goal, despite GOZ exploration of ways to raise
additional forex, including taking advances on planned
exports and seizing the tobacco remaining on Section 8 farms.



3. (SBU) Angelo listed upcoming UN/UNDP events of interest.

-- SADC health ministers will meet here next week to examine
the health dimensions of the regional crisis.

-- UNSYG Special Envoy to the region for humanitarian
affairs, WFP Director James Morris, will visit in early
September and is tentatively scheduled to meet with Mugabe on
September 5.

-- UNDP will host a September 8-11 Scientific Conference on
GMO issues that will bring together the GOZ Biosafety Board,
WHO, FAO, the GOZ Research Council, and representatives of
neighboring countries. The GOZ is sponsoring the conference
that will bring in "top scientists" for informed policy
dialogue. Angelo invited countries who wish to be involved
to contact him. (See comment.)


4. (SBU) The next agenda item was the situation in the
agriculture sector. Angelo presented a bleak picture, as
follows.

-- The GOZ would need Zimbabwe dollar $70 billion
(approximately US $100 million at the parallel rate, and US
$1.27 million at the official exchange rate) to handle the
needs of the newly resettled; they have been able to mobilize
only $8.5 billion.

-- There is sufficient maize seed in country, but price
controls are such that the seed companies are reluctant to
sell. An increase in prices would put the seed out of reach
of many small farmers.

-- There will be at least a 200,000 MT shortfall of
fertilizer, since there is no forex available to import the
raw materials.

-- The most optimistic estimate for tobacco next year
foresees a minimum forty percent decline over the current
season,s already reduced output. Hectarage planted will
fall from 60-65,000 hectares to 30,000.

-- Only thirty percent of the recipients of A2 farms are
resident on the land and beginning to make preparations to
grow something next year. The quality of their production
poses another unanswered question.
-- There is no reliable figure for smaller A1 resettled
farmers who have taken plots of varying sizes on 3,160
sub-divided farms.

-- Winter wheat cultivation was initially estimated at
100,000 MT produced on 20,000 hectares. Recent farm
evictions will reduce this by probably fifty percent. Some
farmers have arranged locally to harvest their wheat before
they are forced to leave; the GOZ plans to take over the
crops in other areas.

Monitoring



5. (SBU) During the agenda discussion of policy issues, the
question of food distribution monitoring arose. The British
High Commissioner asked for a readout on the distribution
mechanism of the Grain Marketing Board (GMB),as opposed to
the WFP program. A WFP representative said that the GMB sold
the subsidized grain/meal for cash, some of which was a
monthly Zimbabwe dollar $1,500 payment to families enrolled
in the government's food-for-work program on public works
projects. (Angelo added that while the work had been done,
in many areas payment was behind schedule.) The WFP
representative continued that WFP is targeting the most
vulnerable population with free food in 19 districts, which
WFP hopes to expand to 53 when sufficient resources are
available. The DFID representative inquired about global
monitoring of all food distribution, noting that it was
essential the GMB distribution system as well as that of
donors be scrutinized in order to assist those who, for
whatever reason, do not benefit from the GMB sales.


6. (SBU) Angelo responded that UNDP fully agrees. He said
that he had repeatedly told senior GOZ officials that the UN
would be watching, and that partisan distribution of food was
unacceptable. He said that the GOZ reaction was that since
it was their money supplying the GMB operation, they would
distribute the food as they saw appropriate. For this
reason, it would be necessary to monitor as closely as
possible food distribution on all levels. Angelo did not
refer to the details of the monitoring mechanism.

Commercial Farm Workers/Internally Displaced Persons (IDP)



7. (SBU) Angelo expressed some optimism about the UN's
ability to address the plight of commercial farm workers.
After months of avoiding the issue, or rejecting it as
irrelevant, his GOZ contacts now seemed ready to discuss ways
forward, and the topic had come under discussion in the
GOZ-owned press. Angelo said that the UN hopes to identify
as soon as possible qualified NGOs to undertake program
implementation with farm workers. Angelo said that most farm
workers remained in place on their farms, although there was
a modest but growing migration toward communal and urban
areas. As the Section 8 evictions go forward, the potential
for clashes between commercial farm workers and the new
settlers who have been allocated farm worker housing will
increase. Angelo said that he had heard over the weekend
that the USG has offered to fund a senior OCHA official who
would work in Angelo's office, preferably by September 1,
with primary responsibility for farm worker/IDP issues.
(Request confirmation from the Department/USAID that this
information is accurate.)

The Implications of Counter Sanctions on Travelers for Donor
Implementation



8. (SBU) The DFID representative observed that recent
developments at the Harare International Airport could
potentially pose problems for DFID activities, including
humanitarian programs, in Zimbabwe. Fifteen non-UK national
DFID employees from countries as far away as Asia, and two UK
consultants, had been turned back by immigration authorities
without explanation on August 19. They had come to undertake
a training session. Most participants were from African
countries, and several held valid visas. Angelo responded
that he had heard about such problems in passing and asked
what other nationalities had been affected. Responses follow.

-- Sweden: Two students with visas were turned back on
August 19.

-- UK: Four additional persons had been turned back,
including a military officer who had come to wed his fiance,
a tourist, and a policeman who was told "wrong job" by the
immigration officer in charge.

-- Germany: Two persons, including a tourist holding a visa
and the sister of a permanent resident in Zimbabwe.

-- The Netherlands: A consultant with a local NGO who had
come to undertake an evaluation.

-- Australia: A recruiter for an Australian university who
had arrived from Nairobi to interview potential scholarship
candidates.

-- USA: Four Americans on August 15, including a woman
holding a valid visa who was interviewing to head an HIV/AIDs
project, a dance student with a valid visa, and a researcher
for an NIH-funded HIV/AIDS project who was bringing in
HIV/AIDs test kits. (We have since heard that a fifth Amcit
(working for OXFAM) was turned back on August 19 and we are
seeking to confirm.)

-- Canada: Immigration officials attempted to turn back a
newly-arrived member of the Canadian High Commission with a
valid diplomatic visa, who eventually managed to talk his way
through.


9. (SBU) The Belgian Ambassador said that several EU nations,
including Belgium, have already issued travel advisories
warning business visitors as well as tourists that possession
of a valid visa does not guarantee entry into Zimbabwe, and
recommending against travel here. The UK High Commissioner
reiterated that a continued refusal to grant entry to
official travelers could imperil British assistance programs
in Zimbabwe, including humanitarian programs. Angelo replied
that he had urged the GOZ to approve registration of all
legitimate international NGOs interested in humanitarian
activities regardless of the location of their headquarters.
He requested details about any additional problems and said
that he would raise with Minister July Moyo this week the
urgency of rectifying this issue, and clarifying any new
procedures.

Comment



10. (C) Comment: This particular meeting was different from
most donor conclaves in that it descended from the usual
platform of diplomatic niceties. Angelo, who admitted that
he feels trapped "between the sword and the wall," was blunt
and offered nothing in the way of apologies for the GOZ
behavior or policies. He said that his instructions from the
UNSYG are to "keep open the channels of communication," even
though little meaningful interchange appears to be moving
through those channels. His view of the likely evolution of
events was as bleak as that of the rest of the participants.


11. (C) We approached Angelo after the meeting to request
further information on the Scientific Conference on GMO,
including who will be invited to present. We reminded him of
the public debate-turned-debacle on GMO in Zambia and
cautioned that the event should be managed in such a way as
to avoid any negative fallout here and, by extension,
regionally. Angelo offered to provide us full information on
the event at a meeting later this week, which we will share
with the Department. Depending upon where this stands, we
may wish to identify additional participants who can offer
accurate, balanced and informed insights into the complex
biotech issue. End comment.
SULLIVAN