MUGABE VOWS TO STAY THE COURSE IN PUBLIC SPEECHES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001833

SIPDIS

FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE VOWS TO STAY THE COURSE IN PUBLIC SPEECHES

Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5(b) and (d)

SUMMARY:
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1. (C) In his annual Heroes Day Speech on August 12, only
sparsely attended by the diplomatic community, Mugabe showed
no indication of veering from his current disastrous policy
course. He vowed to continue with the fast track
resettlement effort but said that "loyal" commercial farmers
would be allowed to stay. He threatened retaliatory measures
against the EU and United States for their "sanctions" on
Zimbabwe. In a separate speech on August 13, in honor of
Defense Forces Day, Mugabe said the recent DRC-Rwanda
agreement had paved the way for a Zimbabwean withdrawal from
the DRC, although he did not provide a timeline for such
action. We suspect that Mugabe intends to allow only those
farmers who eschew any political involvement and
confrontation with the GOZ to remain on their farms, thus
further strengthening ZANU-PF's hand in rural areas. End
Summary.

LAND
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2. (U) Land was the main focus of Mugabe's August 12 Heroes
Day address, not surprisingly given the August 8 deadline for
many commercial farmers to leave their properties. Mugabe
indicated there was no going back from rectifying historical
wrongs, and he drew parallels between land ownership and
national sovereignty. He said resettlement should be
completed by the end of August, so new farmers can be given
inputs and have seeds in the ground when the rains start in
October. He said that "loyal" commercial farmers, i.e. those
who respect the GOZ, would be allowed to stay.

ATMOSPHERICS
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3. (U) The August 12 event was sparsely attended by the
diplomatic community, although August summer vacations could
be the reason for many of the EU absences. A banner in front
of the diplomatic tent--mostly filled with ZANU-PF
supporters--exclaimed, "Britain, No One Believes Your Lies!"

YOUTH SERVICE
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4. (C) Mugabe defended young people who "slugged it out" on
the farms along with older war veterans, applauding those
young people as war veterans themselves in the fight for
their land. He insisted that the GOZ would press forward
with a "Youth Service Programme" which he said would build a
cadre of patriotic Zimbabweans who are prepared to defend the
country's sovereignty and interests. (Comment: This pledge
to establish a national service program has generated
widespread concern in Zimbabwe, given the role played by the
youth militia during the recent presidential campaign. End
Comment.)

POINTING THE FINGER, AS ALWAYS
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5. (U) Mugabe's Heroes Day speech had a full dose of his
standard anti-Britain, anti-EU, and anti-U.S. rhetoric,
referring to the West as the "oppressing nations".
Predictably, Britain got extra lashes. "We do not kowtow to
imperialists," he said, mentioning Prime Minister Blair as
the worst culprit. "To those who want to own this country
for Britain... ...we say here on this national shrine that
the game is up and it is time for them to go." he said.
Attempting to divide and rule, Mugabe said he understands
that some EU countries sympathize with the GOZ, but are
finding it difficult to resist British dictates. He also
attempted to separate the British people from the British
government saying, the British people know their government's
policies are unjust. Mugabe threatened to take retaliatory
steps in response to U.S. and EU sanctions, reminding those
governments that they have interests in Zimbabwe too, which
could be targeted with phased but unspecified
counter-sanctions.

OPPOSITION RESPONSE
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6. (C) Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai criticized Mugabe
for turning an occasion meant to honor Zimbabwe's national
heroes into a purely partisan event. (Comment: We
understand that a substantial number of the MDC's Members of
Parliament attended the event, but that Tsvangirai was
dissuaded from doing so by advisors who said his security
could not be guaranteed. End Comment.)

DEFENSE FORCES DAY
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7. (U) During his speech to commemorate Zimbabwean Defense
Forces (ZDF) Day on August 13, Mugabe announced formally
that, due to the recent peace accord between the DRC and
Rwanda, ZDF would be withdrawing from the DRC. He provided
no timeline for such action, however. He said ZDF members
had benefited from the land resettlement program and would
continue to do so. He praised the ZDF for building strong
relationships with communities throughout Zimbabwe, and
called on Zimbabweans to take advantage of business
opportunities in the newly-peaceful DRC.

COMMENT:
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8. (C) Mugabe gave nothing publicly on land. However, his
remarks suggest he is inclined to declare victory in the next
month or two and to allow those farmers who eschew
confrontation with the government, and sever ties with the
MDC, to continue to earn a living, albeit on truncated pieces
of land. We expect a triage is in the offing, with JAG
members the first targets. Any farmer tainted with
opposition activism, or not willing to live by Mugabe's rules
will almost certainly have to pack his bags. If the GOZ
follows through on this approach--and it seems determined to
do so--one effect will be to remove a key source of financial
support for the MDC and to eliminate vital rural footholds
for the MDC. End Comment
WHITEHEAD