COMMERCIAL FARMS APPEAR CALM AS INITIAL DEADLINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001822

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EX
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EAGR ECON ZI
SUBJECT: COMMERCIAL FARMS APPEAR CALM AS INITIAL DEADLINE
PASSES

Classified By: Laboff KRBel for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (U) As the August 8 midnight deadline for commercial
farmers to vacate their farms and homesteads came and went,
there are no reports of violence or forcible evictions from
the disputed property. Commercial Farmers Union (CFU)
president David Hasluck reports that the situation
countrywide is "cool" and that there are not yet any
indications of confrontation. Hasluck states that there is
"lots of counterintelligence going around," by which the GOZ
has been successful in increasing the level of anxiety and
apprehension among farmers. At the moment, however, no
officials -- police, soldiers, CIO, or other government
operatives -- have tried to remove any remaining farmers from
their land.


2. (SBU) Nevertheless, Hasluck has emphasized that they
expect the situation to vary from region to region. Just as
implementation of the land acquisition program itself has
depended upon the leadership at the local level, the CFU
expects that enforcement of the various deadlines will depend
upon the relationship farmers have with their local
officials. At this point, people who feel vulnerable,
including farmers' wives and children, are not remaining on
the farms. Many of those individuals have opted to stay with
friends or stay in the city for the upcoming long Heroes Day
holiday weekend. On the other hand, many farmers who are
more certain of the situation on the local level have chosen
to stay on their property in order to protect their assets.


3. (C) Comment: Although Post is heartened by the reported
lack of violent confrontation, there remains the potential
for some confrontation over the four-day weekend. Just as
the initial farm occupations occurred at the behest of groups
of "war veterans," it is entirely possible that some forcible
evictions will be attempted by these same groups --
particulary since many of them consider themselves to be
among the "heroes" who are being honored on August 12.
Additionally, the GOZ may attempt to make a public stand by
evicting or arresting some farmers as an example to the rest
-- similar to the response in arresting fifteen Chiredzi-area
sugarcane farmers on the occasion of the June 24 deadline.
Hasluck has agreed to notify us if he hears of any
confrontation over the long weekend. End comment.
WHITEHEAD