ZANU-PF DECLARED WINNER OF KADOMA MAYORAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001766

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2012
TAGS: PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF DECLARED WINNER OF KADOMA MAYORAL ELECTION


Classified by Chief of Pol Section Matt Harrington.
Reasons: 1.5 (B) and (D).


1. (c) Summary: ZANU-PF was declared the winner of the July
27-28 Kadoma mayoral election by a slim margin. The
pre-election period was marred by incidents of sporadic
violence and the mass arrest of prominent Kadoma MDC members
two days before the vote. On the voting days themselves
independent local observers noted that substantial numbers of
individuals from outside of Kadoma were bused into the area
and that many of them joined the lines of voters at polling
stations. MDC officials suspect that these individuals were
allowed to vote even though their names did not appear on the
official voters roll, and the officials criticized the use of
supplementary rolls which were not made available for public
scrutiny. There were sufficient incidents of irregularities
to cast doubt on whether this outcome genuinely reflected the
will of Kadoma's residents. The MDC has publicly denounced
the results of the election. End Summary


ZANU-PF WINS
--------------


2. (c) Zanu-PF won the Kadoma mayoral election by a slim
margin. ZANU-PF candidate Fani Phiri polled 6,886 votes
compared to 6,214 votes for MDC candidate Editor Matamisa.MDC
Secretary-General, Welshman Ncube publicly declared the

SIPDIS
results fraudulent because of what he described as widescale
irregularities on both polling days. This was the first time
the MDC has lost a mayoral election in the six races it has
fielded candidates, beginning in May 2001.

PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE
--------------


3. (c) On July 29, poloff spoke separately with
representatives from the Zimbabwe Election Support Network
(ZESN) and Silas Matamisa, Chairman of the MDC,s Mashonaland
West chapter, about the Kadoma election. Matamisa noted that
there was sporadic violence in Kadoma in the run-up to the
election. On June 25, suspected ZANU-PF supporters
firebombed the residence of initial MDC mayoral candidate
Daniel Mugomba. On July 22, MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai
was forced to cancel his appearance at a rally for Editor
Matamisa in Kadoma when ZANU-PF supporters took over the
rally site and assaulted several MDC members. In the week
preceding the polling, police arrested Kadoma MP Austin
Mapandawana and ten other MDC members at an election rally
that turned violent when ZANU-PF youth attempted to forcibly
disperse the gathering. Mapandawana and the other MDC
members remained in police custody until the Friday before
the election. Matamisa commented that the detentions and
incidents of pre-election violence were aimed at disrupting
the MDC,s ability to successfully mount an election
campaign, and discouraging potential MDC voters from
participating in the voting.

TURN-OUT
--------------


4. (c) Out of 38,739 registered voters, 13,161 cast ballots
in the election, which represents 33.9% of eligible
voters.This compares to the 45.3% of registered voters who
voted in the 2000 parliamentary election in Kadoma,which the
MDC won by 12,049 votes to 5,666. ZESN National Chairman,
Reginald Matchaba Hove, speculated that the relatively low
turn-out could be attributed to the episodes of pre-election
violence and intimidation. The turn-out in Kadoma was
slightly higher, however, than voter participation in other
mayoral elections in the past two years. In the 2001
Bulawayo mayoral race, for example, only 20% of voters
participated, while in the mayoral elections in Masvingo and
Chegutu,between 27% and 28% of registered voters cast
ballots.The 38,739 voters on the roll in the municipality of
Kadoma is remarkably close to the 40,882 voters on the roll
for the much larger district of Kadoma Central in the 2002
presidential election, raising suspicions about possible
inflation of the numbers.


5. (c) While both Matamisa and the ZESN observers agreed that
the turn-out was heaviest on Saturday, the first day of
polling, there were voting irregularities on both polling
days that might well have inflated the number of registered
voters that took part in the election. ZESN observer Prisca
Mukwengi noted that on both days people from as far away as
Chinhoyi (165km) and Sanyati (80km) were bussed into the
area. When ZESN observers questioned these individuals about
what they were doing in the area, they replied that they
&were going shopping8. The observers later saw many of
these individuals blending into the lines outside of the
polling stations. Matamisa noted that on the polling days
some ZANU-PF supporters were seen with supplementary voters
roll,that had not been made available to his party or the
general public. He surmised that non-Kadoma residents were
able to successfully cast ballots because their names
appeared on these &unofficial8 rolls.

KADOMA RESIDENTS TURNED AWAY
--------------


6. (c) There were reports of individuals being turned away
from polling stations during the elections. The ZESN
observers confirmed that a relatively small number of
individuals were denied the opportunity to vote,but,at
present, they could not give exact figures. Mukwengi and
Chiseya noted that most individuals were turned away because
they either could not produce proper identification or they
were not on the official voters roll.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (c) ZANU-PF ran a vintage campaign in Kadoma. While the
relative lack of violence on the polling days was
positive,there are many troubling aspects of the election.
The arrest of Mapandawana and other prominent opposition
members in advance of the election was
a clear attempt by the ruling party to hamper the MDC,s
ability to successfully mobilize the vote. In addition, the
presence of significant numbers of non-residents at polling
stations, and the allegations of supplementary voter rolls,
along with the pre-election incidents of violence, raises
doubts that the election results genuinely reflected the will
of Kadoma's residents. These irregularities also belie
ZANU-PF's claims that the Kadoma victory marks a fundamental
shift in its fortunes in urban areas. ZANU-PF may have been
declared the winner, but true to form, they muddied the
waters to the extent that the legitimacy of the outcome
remains in doubt.
SULLIVAN