ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT, RUNNING SCARED, RENEWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001448

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC ZI MDC ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE GOVERNMENT, RUNNING SCARED, RENEWS
CRACKDOWN ON MDC

Classified By: Political Officer Todd Faulk for reasons 1.5 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In the last week, the Government of Zimbabwe
(GOZ) has renewed its crackdown on the opposition Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC),which is still considering some
sort of mass action to force the GOZ to rerun the flawed
March presidential election. Police have arrested hundreds
of MDC supporters and activists in Manicaland following an
attempted MDC rally in Mutare, and police beat up and
arrested more than 80 MDC members attempting to hold a public
meeting in Harare on June 16. The Harare detainees,
including an MDC Member of Parliament, have spent a second
night in jail and police denied medical attention to six who
were seriously injured in the beatings. Police also set up
large-scale roadblocks around the capital on June 17 in an
attempt to deter further political gatherings. The GOZ is
running scared, knowing that it is bankrupt of new ideas to
stop the country's precipitous economic slide, and the
citizenry is increasingly hungry and impatient.
Consequently, the GOZ is increasingly reliant on repression
and the security forces to prevent popular protest from
taking hold. End summary.

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Crackdown in Manicaland
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2. (C) Over the last several weeks, the opposition MDC has
been exploring ways to mobilize some sort of mass action
against the GOZ, whether it be a limited stay-away or
large-scale demonstrations. Even though the MDC National
Executive decided June 9 that it was not yet ready to
undertake a nationwide mass action, MDC President Morgan
Tsvangirai may nonetheless be testing the waters for a mass

SIPDIS
action by gauging the reaction of the GOZ and the public. On
June 12, riot police and ax-wielding ZANU-PF youth occupied
the venue for an MDC rally in Mutare South that Tsvangirai
was due to address, and prevented any gathering from taking
place, according to the June 13 edition of the independent
"Daily News." Learnmore Jongwe, MDC Secretary for Public
Information and a National Executive member, told poloff June
18 that 100 MDC members were arrested in Chibunji, in
southern Manicaland, after MDC supporters allegedly burned
down a bottle store on June 10 belonging to Bernard Makuwe.
Makuwe, the ZANU-PF chairman for Buhera, was named as a
defendant in the petrol-bomb murder of Tsvangirai's driver
and another MDC member in April 2000, but has so far refused
without consequences to appear in court. Jongwe also told
poloff that the last 138 of the 170 MDC supporters who were
beaten up and arrested on June 12 in the town of Birchenough
Bridge, were released on bail. They were arrested after
holding a public meeting in the town. These actions followed
a police raid on MDC headquarters in Mutare and the Mutare
offices of two prominent MDC MPs on May 31. The police,
claiming to be looking for plans or weapons to "oust the
government or force a rerun of the presidential election,"
went away with nothing.

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Crackdown Extends to Harare
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3. (C) On June 16, about 85 MDC members and supporters
attempted to meet in Harare Gardens, the extensive park
across the street from the U.S. Embassy. The police quickly
got wind of their activities, and descended on the gathering.
They told the leaders that the park was not suitable for
such a meeting, ordered them to disperse, and attacked those
gathered with truncheons. According to Jongwe, they
attempted to regroup at the MDC's Harare provincial
headquarters downtown, but were thwarted there as well.
Police continued to beat people, including MDC MP for
Highfield Munyaradzi Gwisai and a "Daily News" reporter, and
a total of about 80 were taken into custody. Jongwe reported
that when Gwisai's attorney saw him in jail, Gwisai was
bleeding profusely and may have had a broken rib. A doctor
who examined the detainees the night of June 16 said that six
of them, including Gwisai, required hospitalization, but
police refused to release them, according to the June 18
"Daily News." The detainees were held a second night June
17, but were due to appear in court on June 18. Alarmed by
the attempted gathering in Harare, police erected large-scale
roadblocks on major thoroughfares leading into central Harare
on the morning of June 17. Unlike with previous roadblocks,
where police would wave most vehicles through, nearly every
vehicle was stopped and nearly every driver questioned, which
led to unprecedented backups and traffic snarls in the
morning rush-hour. Police confirmed to us that preventing
civil protest was the objective of the roadblocks. As of
June 18, roadblocks remained in place, but vehicles were
being stopped less frequently.

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Comment: GOZ is Running Scared
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4. (C) Given the police's swift and heavy-handed reaction to
attempted, small-scale gatherings in Manicaland and Harare,
the GOZ is clearly becoming more concerned about some kind of
MDC-sponsored mass action, the National Executive's earlier
decision notwithstanding. The GOZ is using all of the means
at its disposal to head-off and disrupt any kind of gathering
lest it erupt into a demonstration or riot that might spark a
larger uprising. Mugabe and his backers evidently believed
that after the flawed presidential election, they could go
back to business as usual; instead things have only gotten
worse. They may be starting to realize that the economic
slide, with spiraling inflation, dried-up forex flows, and
growing food shortages, has become so acute that even if
ZANU-PF was willing to reverse its damaging policies now, it
would not be enough to prevent widespread hunger and
continued economic decline. Combined with deep pools of
disillusionment and anger, the hunger could become a
dangerous catalyst for an explosion that the GOZ might have
difficulty controlling. End comment.


SULLIVAN