ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000104

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/12
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MARR ZI
SUBJECT: ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE:
MILITARY IMPLICITLY BACKS ZANU-PF IN MARCH 9-10
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

REF: '01 HARARE 3689

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: IN A JANUARY 9 PRESS CONFERENCE,
ZIMBABWE'S SECURITY CHIEFS SAID THEY WOULD NOT TOLERATE
THE ASCENSION OF A PRESIDENT WHO DOES NOT "OBSERVE THE
OBJECTIVES OF THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE." THE LENGTHY
STATEMENT MARKED THE MOST DRAMATIC DEPARTURE OF
ZIMBABWE'S MILITARY FROM ITS GENERALLY APOLITICAL
HISTORY. THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE ANNOUNCED THE DATE OF
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 9 AND
10 AND SAID THAT THE HARARE MAYORAL AND COUNCIL
ELECTIONS WOULD BE HELD CONCURRENTLY, IN CLEAR DEFIANCE
OF A SUPREME COURT ORDER. MEANWHILE, PARLIAMENT VOTED
TO SUSPEND ITS OWN STANDING RULES TO PERMIT THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS VOTED DOWN BY
THE MDC ON JANUARY 8. THE DRACONIAN PUBLIC ORDER AND
SECURITY BILL (POSB) COULD PASS THE HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY AS
EARLY AS TODAY, JANUARY 10. END SUMMARY.

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REVERSING APOLITICAL STANCE, MILITARY BACKS ZANU-PF
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2. (C) IN A JANUARY 9 PRESS CONFERENCE, ZIMBABWE'S
SECURITY CHIEFS, INCLUDING DEFENSE FORCES CHIEF VITALIS
ZVINAVASHE, ARMY COMMANDER CONSTANTINE CHIWENGA, AIR
FORCE COMMANDER PERENCE SHIRI, AND POLICE COMMISSIONER
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00104 01 OF 02 101348Z
AUGUSTINE CHIHURI, SAID THEY WOULD NOT ACCEPT A
PRESIDENT WHO DID NOT SHARE THE "OBJECTIVES OF THE
LIBERATION STRUGGLE." THE LENGTHY STATEMENT, READ BY
ZVINAVASHE, OUTLINED THE HISTORY OF THE FIGHT FOR
INDEPENDENCE AND CRITICIZED THE LOCAL MEDIA FOR
PORTRAYING THE MILITARY IN A BAD LIGHT, LISTING SEVEN
CASES OF MEDIA "ABUSES" OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS. IN
AN OVERTLY POLITICAL MOVE, THE MILITARY ALSO ENCOURAGED
PARLIAMENTARIANS "TO ENACT LAWS THAT PROTECT OUR
SOVEREIGNTY AND INDEPENDENCE," UNDOUBTEDLY REFERRING TO
REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION CURRENTLY BEFORE THE HOUSE.


3. (C) ZVINAVASHE CONCLUDED BY SAYING: "... ANY CHANGE
DESIGNED TO REVERSE THE GAINS OF THIS REVOLUTION WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTED ... WE WISH TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR TO
ALL ZIMBABWEAN CITIZENS THAT THE SECURITY ORGANIZATIONS
WILL ONLY STAND IN SUPPORT OF THOSE POLITICAL LEADERS
THAT WILL PURSUE ZIMBABWEAN VALUES, TRADITIONS AND
BELIEFS FOR WHICH THOUSANDS OF LIVES WERE LOST ... LET
IT BE KNOWN THAT THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN THE LAND IS A
STRAIGHTJACKET WHOSE OCCUPANT IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE
OBJECTIVES OF THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE. WE WILL
THEREFORE NOT ACCEPT, LET ALONE SUPPORT OR SALUTE,
ANYONE WITH A DIFFERENT AGENDA THAT THREATENS THE VERY
EXISTENCE OF OUR SOVEREIGNTY, OUR COUNTRY AND OUR
PEOPLE." (COMMENT: ALTHOUGH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND MDC
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WERE NOT MENTIONED BY NAME,
THE MILITARY LEADERS' LANGUAGE IMPLICITLY STATED THEY
WOULD SUPPORT ONLY MUGABE OR A ZANU-PF SUCCESSOR IN THE
ELECTION AND NOT SOMEONE FROM THE MDC. TSVANGIRAI DOES
NOT HAVE WHAT THE MILITARY WOULD CALL "LIBERATION
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00104 01 OF 02 101348Z
STRUGGLE CREDENTIALS," I.E. A HISTORY OF FIGHTING THE
IAN SMITH REGIME OF THE 1960S AND 1970S. END COMMENT.)

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PRESIDENTIAL, HARARE ELECTION DATES SET
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4. (C) ON JANUARY 9, THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE ANNOUNCED
THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE
WEEKEND OF MARCH 9 AND 10, ONE WEEK BEFORE THE LAST
POSSIBLE DATE. THE OFFICE ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE
NOMINATION COURT, WHICH HAS 21 DAYS TO OFFICIALLY
RECEIVE NOMINATIONS FOR PARTIES' CANDIDATES, WOULD BEGIN
SITTING ON JANUARY 31. IN CLEAR DEFIANCE OF A DECEMBER
7 SUPREME COURT DECISION THAT SAID THE HARARE MUNICIPAL
ELECTIONS MUST TAKE PLACE BY FEBRUARY 11 (REFTEL),THE
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE SAID THE HARARE MAYORAL AND COUNCIL
ELECTIONS WOULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ON MARCH 9 AND 10 FOR REASONS OF
COST.

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REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION CLOSER TO PASSAGE
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PAGE 01 HARARE 00104 02 OF 02 101349Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00
PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00
NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W
-------------- 55D9D1 101349Z /38
O 101242Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0704
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000104

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/12
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MARR ZI
SUBJECT: ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE:
MILITARY IMPLICITLY BACKS ZANU-PF IN MARCH 9-10
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
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PAGE 02 HARARE 00104 02 OF 02 101349Z


5. (U) ZIMBABWE'S PARLIAMENT MOVED CLOSER TO PASSING
THREE DRACONIAN BILLS DESIGNED TO MAXIMIZE THE RULING
PARTY'S ADVANTAGES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ON
JANUARY 8, THE GENERAL LAWS AMENDMENTS BILL, WHICH WOULD
AMEND THE ELECTORAL ACT, WAS DEFEATED IN A FLOOR VOTE BY
36 TO 22. ACCORDING TO REPORTS, JUSTICE MINISTER
PATRICK CHINAMASA, WHO IS ALSO LEADER OF THE HOUSE,
UNDERESTIMATED THE NUMBER OF ZANU-PF MPS IN ATTENDANCE
AFTER A LONG NIGHT OF DEBATE WHEN HE SUBMITTED THE BILL
FOR A FINAL VOTE. THE RARE SETBACK FOR ZANU-PF IS
TEMPORARY, HOWEVER; ON THE NIGHT OF JANUARY 9, THE HOUSE
VOTED 73-53 TO SUSPEND PARLIAMENT'S STANDING RULES TO
PERMIT THE BILL'S RESUBMISSION TODAY (JANUARY 10).
UNDER THE STANDING RULES, A DEFEATED BILL CANNOT BE
RESUBMITTED UNTIL THE NEXT SESSION OF PARLIAMENT BEGINS,
USUALLY IN JULY. MDC MP DAVID COLTART DESCRIBED THE
SUSPENSION AS "UNCONSTITUTIONAL" AND SAID ZIMBABWE HAD
BECOME "A DEMOCRACY IN NAME ONLY."


6. (C) ON JANUARY 9, HOUSE MEMBERS STAYED THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO DEBATE THE PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY BILL
(POSB),WHICH WOULD GIVE THE POLICE SWEEPING POWERS TO
CONTROL AND BAN PUBLIC GATHERINGS AMONG OTHER REPRESSIVE
MEASURES. THE PAPERS OFFICE OF PARLIAMENT TOLD POLOFF
THAT THE BILL MADE IT THROUGH ITS SECOND READING, AND
WAS NOW WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY LEGAL COMMITTEE, WHICH IS
CONSIDERING UNSPECIFIED AMENDMENTS. THE BILL WAS DUE TO
BE TABLED JANUARY 10 FOR A THIRD AND FINAL READING
BEFORE PROCEEDING TO A VOTE. HELEN DINGANI, THE DEPUTY
CLERK OF PARLIAMENT, TOLD POLOFF THAT THE ACCESS TO
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00104 02 OF 02 101349Z
INFORMATION BILL WOULD NOT LIKELY BE CONSIDERED UNTIL
NEXT WEEK.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) THE MILITARY'S SUDDEN DECLARATION THAT IT WOULD
NOT SUPPORT A PRESIDENT WITHOUT LIBERATION CREDENTIALS
REPRESENTS A PERILOUS PRECEDENT FOR DEMOCRACY IN
ZIMBABWE. IT IS A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM THE MILITARY'S
LONG, GENERALLY APOLITICAL TRADITION AND CALLS INTO
QUESTION ITS COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC VALUES. WITHOUT
NAMING NAMES, THE TOP BRASS OF THE SECURITY SERVICES
HINTED THAT THEY WOULD NOT SUPPORT MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI IF HE WERE ELECTED. THE STATEMENT SOUNDS

SIPDIS
LIKE A WARNING TO MDC SUPPORTERS: VOTING FOR TSVANGIRAI
WOULD BE POINTLESS SINCE WE WOULD REMOVE HIM IF HE WERE
ELECTED. THE MILITARY CHIEFS IMPLICITLY UNDERSCORED THE
IMPORTANCE THEY ATTACH TO CONTINUED ZANU-PF RULE,
WHETHER MUGABE IS AT THE HELM OR NOT. MOST OF THE
CURRENT MILITARY LEADERS SPRUNG FROM THE ZANLA AND ZIPRA
GUERRILLA MOVEMENTS OF THE 1960S AND 1970S, AND ALL HAVE
BENEFITED FINANCIALLY FROM ZANU-PF'S 22 YEARS OF
UNBROKEN RULE AND PRESUMABLY WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN
THE STATUS QUO. WHETHER THE MORE JUNIOR RANKS SHARE
THIS VIEW REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION. REGARDLESS OF THE
MOTIVES BEHIND THE MILITARY'S POLITICAL STATEMENT, IT
FURTHER CONTAMINATES AN ALREADY POISONED ELECTORAL
ENVIRONMENT.

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PAGE 04 HARARE 00104 02 OF 02 101349Z

8. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: AS FOR HOLDING THE HARARE
MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ON THE SAME DATE AS THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION, ZANU-PF IS ONCE AGAIN IGNORING COURT ORDERS IT
FINDS INCONVENIENT AND THEREBY IS DENYING THE MDC ANY
OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD MOMENTUM FROM AN ELECTION IT WOULD
UNDOUBTEDLY WIN BY A LANDSLIDE. DESPITE A FEW SETBACKS
IN PARLIAMENT (INCLUDING ADVERSE REPORTS FROM THE LEGAL
COMMITTEE),ZANU-PF IS BACK ON TRACK FOR PRODUCING THE
LEGAL FRAMEWORK THAT WILL PROVIDE THE GOVERNMENT MAXIMUM
ADVANTAGE FOR THE ELECTION WHILE CLOSING OFF MORE
AVENUES OF DISSENT FOR THE OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY.
END COMMENT.

SULLIVAN

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