Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02HANOI899
2002-04-12 07:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Hanoi
Cable title:  

THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER WILL BE . . .

Tags:  PGOV PINR VM DPOL 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

120709Z Apr 02

2002HANOI00899 - CONFIDENTIAL
 
 
 
 CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1379

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INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 
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 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 
 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 
 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 ECA-00 PMB-00 
 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W
 ------------------8525A9 120750Z /38 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6163
INFO SECDEF WASHDC
ASEAN COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000899 

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STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

SECDEF FOR ABLAGG

E.O. 12958: DECL 04/12/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER WILL BE . . .


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000899

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

SECDEF FOR ABLAGG

E.O. 12958: DECL 04/12/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER WILL BE . . .



1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY SCOTT BELLARD, POL/C; REASON 1.5(D)

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HANOI 00899 01 OF 02 120749Z

2. (SBU) SUMMARY: DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG
IS EXPECTED BY MANY OBSERVERS TO BECOME PRIME MINISTER
AFTER THE MAY NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS. TRAN DUOC LUONG
WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRESIDENT. TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN IS
WIDELY PREDICTED TO BECOME A DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER.
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NGUYEN VAN AN, WHO ALSO CHAIRS
THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) ORGANIZATION
COMMISSION, IS SEEN AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL LEADER ON MANY
ISSUES, EVEN ECLIPSING PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC
MANH. END SUMMARY.


3. (SBU) SENIOR COLONEL TRAN NHUNG, INTERNATIONAL EDITOR
OF PEOPLE'S ARMY NEWSPAPER, OUTLINED WHAT HE DEPICTED AS
PERSONAL VIEWS ON UPCOMING CHANGES IN VIETNAM'S LEADERSHIP
DURING AN APRIL 5 MEETING WITH POLOFF. COLONEL NHUNG
PREDICTED THAT INCUMBENT PM PHAN VAN KHAI WILL LEAVE OFFICE
"SOON," BOTH BECAUSE KHAI WANTS TO RETIRE, AND BECAUSE "THE
PEOPLE" WOULD OPPOSE AN EXTENSION OF HIS TERM. (NOTE:
THERE ARE NUMEROUS RUMORS ABOUT UNSAVORY BUSINESS DEALINGS
BY HIS FAMILY MEMBERS, ESPECIALLY HIS SON. END NOTE.)
COLONEL NHUNG EMPHASIZED THAT KHAI WAS SUPPOSED TO RETIRE A
YEAR AGO, AFTER THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS.

PRIME MINISTER AND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER
--------------


4. (C) COLONEL NHUNG REVIEWED THREE PROBABLE CANDIDATES
FOR PRIME MINISTER -- DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN
DUNG, HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET, AND
TRADE MINISTER VU KHOAN. DUNG, A PROTEGE OF FORMER PM VO
VAN KIET, WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT PM, COLONEL NHUNG
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HANOI 00899 01 OF 02 120749Z
PREDICTED. HE REMARKED THAT DUNG AND TRIET WERE ALMOST
IDENTICAL IN POLICY TERMS, BUT THAT TRIET WANTED TO STAY
WHERE HE IS, AT VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC CENTER. YOUNGER, MORE
OUTWARD-ORIENTED PARTY MEMBERS SUPPORT KHOAN, BUT KHOAN
DOES NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT AT SENIOR LEVELS TO BECOME
PM. KHOAN IS ALSO THE ONLY ONE OF THE THREE NOT ON THE
POLITBURO. FURTHERMORE, AS A NORTHERNER, KHOAN WOULD UPSET
THE REGIONAL BALANCE AMONG THE SRV'S TOP THREE OFFICES.
THE PM MUST BE A SOUTHERNER, COLONEL NHUNG CLAIMED, SINCE

NEITHER GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC MANH NOR PRESIDENT TRAN
DUC LUONG IS APT TO LEAVE OFFICE. INSTEAD, COLONEL NHUNG
EXPRESSED THE EXPECTATION THAT VU KHOAN WILL MOVE UP TO ONE
OF THE FOUR DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SLOTS, AS HAS BEEN WIDELY
RUMORED. (NOTE: MOST LIKELY, HE WILL TAKE OVER THE
PORTFOLIO NOW HELD BY NGUYEN MANH CAM. END NOTE.) COLONEL
NHUNG REFUSED TO SPECULATE ABOUT THE OTHER THREE DPM
POSITIONS. HE NOTED THAT THE MILITARY AND SECURITY
APPARATUS IS IN A "WEAK POSITION," WITH ITS LEADERS FACING
REPLACEMENT AND EXTERNAL THREATS ON THE WANE. THEREFORE,
THEY HAVE "LITTLE TO SAY" OVER GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP, HE
CLAIMED.

PRESIDENT
--------------


5. (C) COLONEL NHUNG DISCOUNTED ANY CHANGE IN THE
PRESIDENCY. TRAN DUC LUONG IS NOT HIMSELF INFLUENTIAL AND
"NO ONE WANTS HIS JOB." WITH ONLY THE JUDICIARY AND THE
PROCURACY UNDER HIS PURVIEW, LUONG IS NOT NEARLY AS
POWERFUL AS HIS PREDECESSOR LE DUC ANH, WHO HELD STRONG
PARTY POSITIONS AND HAD SWAY OVER THE MFA, THE SECURITY
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PAGE 04 HANOI 00899 01 OF 02 120749Z
APPARATUS, AND THE MILITARY, COLONEL NHUNG DESCRIBED.

CABINET MINISTERS
--------------


6. (C) COLONEL NHUNG PREDICTED REPLACEMENT OF AT LEAST
HALF OF THE CURRENT CABINET MINISTERS INCLUDING FOREIGN
AFFAIRS NGUYEN DY NIEN, DEFENSE MINISTER PHAM VAN TRA,
PUBLIC SECURITY MINISTER LE MINH HUONG, AND PLANNING AND
INVESTMENT MINISTER TRAN XUAN GIA. FINANCE MINISTER NGUYEN
SINH HUNG, EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTER NGUYEN MINH
HIEN, TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION MINISTER LE NGOC HOAN,
AND HEALTH MINISTER DO NGUYEN PHUONG WOULD REMAIN, HE SAID.

PARTY LEADERSHIP
--------------


7. (C) NGUYEN VAN AN HAS BECOME THE MOST, OR AT LEAST
SECOND MOST, POWERFUL MAN IN VIETNAM, ACCORDING TO COLONEL
NHUNG, BECAUSE AS DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S
ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR TEN YEARS, AN STOCKED CPV RANKS
WITH HIS SUPPORTERS. AN ALSO "MAKES STRONG DECISIONS."
NHUNG PREDICTED THAT AN WOULD EXPAND THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY'S ROLE AT A FASTER PACE THAN NONG DUC MANH HAD

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1380

PAGE 01 HANOI 00899 02 OF 02 120749Z
ACTION EAP-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W
-------------- 8525AE 120750Z /38
R 120709Z APR 02
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6164
INFO SECDEF WASHDC
ASEAN COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BEIJING
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 000899

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

SECDEF FOR ABLAGG



DURING HIS TENURE AS CHAIRMAN, BUT THAT AN WOULD STAY IN
HIS CURRENT POSITION FOR NOW.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HANOI 00899 02 OF 02 120749Z


8. (C) THE CPV CHOSE NONG DUC MANH AS A TRANSITIONAL
LEADER, COLONEL NHUNG ANALYZED, BECAUSE RIVAL FACTIONS
COULD NOT AGREE BETWEEN TRAN DUC LUONG AND NGUYEN VAN AN.
(NOTE: WE DO NOT BELIEVE LUONG WAS TRULY IN THE RUNNING.
THE REAL RACE WAS PROBABLY AMONG THEN-GENERAL SECRETARY LE
KHA PHIEU, MANH, AND AN. END NOTE.) COLONEL NHUNG
CONTRASTED MANH WITH AN, CLAIMING THAT MANH COULD NOT MAKE
STRATEGIC DECISIONS WITHOUT CONSULTING OTHERS. WHILE
MANH'S CONSENSUS-BUILDING SKILLS WERE VALUABLE AS NA
CHAIRMAN, SUCH AN APPROACH IS "INEFFECTIVE" AS GENERAL
SECRETARY. COLONEL NHUNG CRITICIZED THAT MANH CANNOT TAKE

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THE LEAD, ENFORCE ORDER, OR IMPOSE HIS DECISIONS; HE HAS
NO SUPPORT TO DO SO. COLONEL NHUNG EXPRESSED DOUBT THAT
MANH WOULD DEVELOP MUCH OR BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
EFFECTIVE AS PARTY LEADER. HE ADDED THAT THE RECENT CPV
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALLOWING MEMBERS TO CONTINUE PRIVATE
BUSINESSES WAS NOT MANH'S INITIATIVE DESPITE MANH'S PUBLIC
CALL THAT THE PARTY CONSIDER CHANGING THE POLICY. THE
PROPOSAL ORIGINATED SEVERAL YEARS AGO, BUT WAS OPPOSED,
COLONEL NHUNG SAID, BY THEN-ADVISORS LE DUC ANH AND DO
MUOI.


9. (C) COLONEL NHUNG CHARACTERIZED THE MOVE TO ALLOW
PARTY MEMBERS TO CONTINUE IN BUSINESS AS REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF YOUNGER -- MORE PRAGMATIC AND
EDUCATED -- MEMBERS WHO ARE GRADUALLY WINNING OVER THEIR
ELDERS. HE SAID ANOTHER SIGN OF THIS GENERATIONAL CHANGE
IS THE TREND FOR THE CPV TO STEP BACK TO MORE GENERAL
POLICY GUIDANCE AND ALLOW LAW TO DICTATE SPECIFIC
DECISIONS. THE PUBLIC, ACTING THROUGH THE NA, EXPECTS LAWS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HANOI 00899 02 OF 02 120749Z
TO SUPPLANT DETAILED PARTY GUIDELINES AND INSTRUCTIONS,
COLONEL NHUNG CLAIMED.


10. (C) COMMENT: WE OFFER COLONEL NHUNG'S INDIVIDUAL
VIEWS BECAUSE OF THEIR APPARENTLY FRANK NATURE AND HIS
ACCESS TO LEADERSHIP CIRCLES GIVEN HIS POSITION. MUCH CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THIS SUMMER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
STAKES INVOLVED IN LEADERSHIP DYNAMICS. COLONEL NHUNG'S
CANDOR WAS STRIKING, BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED, PARTICULARLY IN
ONE-ON-ONE DISCUSSIONS. HE ADMITTED THAT HE WAS NOT
SUPPOSED TO MEET FOREIGNERS ALONE, BUT THAT HE WAS NOT
WORRIED ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES BECAUSE HE IS NEARING
RETIREMENT.
BURGHARDT

CONFIDENTIAL