ASSESSING NONG DUC MANH'S LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 003099

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

SECDEF FOR ISA/ACHUA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/13
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL VM
SUBJECT: ASSESSING NONG DUC MANH'S LEADERSHIP



1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RAYMOND BURGHARDT,
REASON: 1.5 (D)


2. (C) SUMMARY. NONG DUC MANH IS PERHAPS THE MOST
TELEGENIC VIETNAMESE LEADER SINCE HO CHI MINH. DESPITE
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CONSTANT MEDIA EXPOSURE, LITTLE IS KNOWN OF HIS
PERSONAL VALUES OR ALLIES. WESTERN PERCEPTIONS OF HIM
AS A POLITICAL REFORMER ARE LIKELY OFF THE MARK, AS
MANH MORE PROBABLY SHARES THE CONVICTIONS OF HIS PEERS
ABOUT THE NEED FOR THE CPV TO RETAIN EXCLUSIVE
POLITICAL POWER AND TO MOVE DECISIVELY TO COUNTER-ACT
WOULD-BE CHALLENGES TO "NATIONAL SOLIDARITY." END
SUMMARY.

PUBLIC PERSONA
--------------


3. (C) SINCE HIS ELECTION AS GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE
COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) AT THE NINTH PARTY
CONGRESS IN APRIL 2001, NONG DUC MANH HAS RARELY BEEN
OUT OF THE PUBLIC SPOTLIGHT. AS DE JURE LEADER OF THE
ALMOST 3-MILLION MEMBER CPV AND AS DE FACTO PARAMOUNT
LEADER (OF SORTS) OF THE NATION, MANH'S PRESENCE IS
UBIQUITOUS. RARELY DOES A DAY GO BY WITHOUT A PHOTO OF
HIM ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THE CPV'S "NHAN DAN" NEWSPAPER
OR WITHOUT COVERAGE OF HIM RECEIVING SOME HONORED GUEST
OR EXHORTING SOME CADRES ON NATIONAL NEWS. WHETHER DUE
TO A SUNNY DISPOSITION OR A CAREFULLY CALCULATED SENSE
OF PUBLIC RELATIONS, MANH IS THAT RARE VIETNAMESE WHO
TURNS ON A SMILE FOR A CAMERA. MOST OTHER VIETNAMESE
IN AND OUT OF LEADERSHIP RANKS SEEM TO FEEL OBLIGED TO
ADOPT A DIGNIFIED, SOLEMN DEMEANOR IN THE PRESENCE OF A
PHOTOGRAPHER. HO CHI MINH WAS PROBABLY THE LAST
VIETNAMESE LEADER WHO WAS ROUTINELY SHOWN IN A BENIGN
AND EVEN HAPPY LIGHT IN THE OFFICIAL MEDIA.

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4. (C) FOR ALL HIS PUBLIC PERSONA, HONED AS WELL
DURING ALMOST TEN YEARS AS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN,
MANH THE MAN REMAINS A MYSTERY TO VIRTUALLY ALL FOREIGN
OBSERVERS, AND LIKELY TO MOST VIETNAMESE AS WELL.
UNLIKE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY COUNTERPARTS, HE DOES
NOT ROUTINELY MEET WITH FOREIGN DIGNITARIES VISITING
HANOI, UNLESS THEY ARE FRATERNAL PARTY DIGNITARIES IN
THEIR OWN RIGHT. (HE DID, HOWEVER, RECEIVE SECRETARY
POWELL DURING THE JULY 2001 ASEAN MEETINGS.) HIS
FOREIGN TRIPS AS GENERAL SECRETARY HAVE ALSO BEEN
CONSPICUOUSLY FEW: IN 2002, HE MADE ONLY TWO OVERSEAS
TRIPS, TO JAPAN AND TO RUSSIA AND BELARUS, BOTH WITHIN
THE SPACE OF A MONTH. HIS ONLY KNOWN VISIT TO THE U.S.
WAS AS NA CHAIRMAN IN 2000. AMBASSADOR HAS NOT MET
WITH MANH SINCE ARRIVAL AT POST IN DECEMBER 2001,
DESPITE A STANDING REQUEST DATING BACK FROM THE TIME OF
PRESENTATION OF CREDENTIALS IN FEBRUARY 2002. INDEED,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHINESE AND RUSSIAN
AMBASSADORS, WHO ESCORTED HIGH LEVEL VISITORS FROM
THEIR CAPITALS TO CALL ON MANH, WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY
OTHER AMBASSADORS WHO HAVE MET HIM IN VIETNAM. THE
JAPANESE AMBASSADOR MET MANH ONLY DURING MANH'S VISIT
TO TOKYO EARLIER THIS YEAR.


5. (C) JUDGING FROM PRESS ACCOUNTS, MANH MAINTAINS A
VIGOROUS IN-COUNTRY TRAVEL SCHEDULE, ESPECIALLY
TARGETING VIETNAM'S POORER PROVINCES AND MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS DOMINATED BY ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS, LIKE HIS OWN
HOME PROVINCE OF BAC KAN. ACCORDING TO BAC KAN
OFFICIALS, MANH RETURNS TO HIS HOMETOWN AT LEAST ONCE A
YEAR, AND IS SAID TO BE A CONVIVIAL IMBIBER OF THE
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LOCAL POTENT LIQUOR. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT HIS WIFE
REMAINS IN BAC KAN.

WHAT DOES HE STAND FOR?
--------------


6. (C) FOR ALL HIS MEDIA EXPOSURE, MANH'S OWN
POLITICAL CREDO OR INCLINATION TO SHAPE IDEOLOGY ARE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THE CPV UNDER HIS WATCH HAS MADE
A PUSH FOR STRENGTHENING "GRASS-ROOTS DEMOCRACY" AND
FOR REINFORCING POLITICAL AND IDEOLOGICAL EDUCATION AT
ALL LEVELS OF SCHOOLING. THESE APPEAR TO BE
COMPLEMENTARY EXERCISES NEITHER IN EXPANDING PUBLIC
PLURALISM NOR IN RETURNING TO MARXIST ROOTS, BUT RATHER
IN REASSERTING A STRONGER CPV ROLE AT A TIME OF
DRAMATIC DOMESTIC CHANGE.


7. (C) MANH WON KUDOS FROM MANY INTERNATIONAL
OBSERVERS FOR HIS APPARENT EFFORTS TO WAKE UP THE OFTEN
MORIBUND NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DURING HIS TENURE THERE,
INCLUDING SUCH INNOVATIONS AS TELEVISION COVERAGE AND

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ACTION EAP-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 CIAE-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00 DS-00 EB-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 DCP-01
NSAE-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W
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FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8498
INFO ASEAN COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BEIJING
SECDEF WASHDC
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HANOI 003099

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

SECDEF FOR ISA/ACHUA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/13
SUBJ: ASSESSING NONG DUC MANH'S LEADERSHIP

FORMAL Q&A SESSIONS BETWEEN AT LEAST A SELECTED NUMBER
OF MINISTERS AND NA DELEGATES. SOME FOREIGN ACADEMICS
DREW THE CONCLUSION THAT MANH WAS AT HEART A POLITICAL
REFORMER, AND, POSSIBLY, A CLOSET LIBERAL. SUCH AN
INTERPRETATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN BORNE OUT
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SUBSEQUENTLY. THE CPV UNDER MANH (AS BEFORE) HAS
ORCHESTRATED PLENUMS IMMEDIATELY BEFORE EACH OF THE
PLENARY NA SESSIONS OVER THE PAST YEAR AND A HALF, AND
COMMENTED PUBLICLY AND SPECIFICALLY ON WHAT THE NA
SHOULD TRY AND SHOULD NOT TRY TO ACCOMPLISH DURING
THOSE SESSIONS. AS SUCH, MANH HAS AT LEAST INDIRECTLY
UNDERCUT THE GROWING PUBLIC LEGITIMACY AND AUTHORITY
THE NA HAD BEGUN TO ACHIEVE.


8. (C) FURTHER, UNDER MANH'S LEADERSHIP, THE GVN AND
CPV HAVE MOVED AGGRESSIVELY AGAINST SOME PERCEIVED
THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND NATIONAL UNITY,
INCLUDING FATHER NGUYEN VAN LY, NEW AND OFTEN YOUNG
"CYBER-DISSIDENTS," AND WOULD-BE MONTAGNARD ACTIVISTS.
THESE ARRESTS AND CONVICTIONS GO AGAINST THE BROADER
TREND OF GROWING PERSONAL FREEDOMS WITHIN VIETNAM THAT
HAVE EMERGED OVER THE PAST DECADE. THERE ARE NO REAL
INDICATIONS OF ANY IMMINENT PERIOD OF POLITICAL
LIBERALIZATION OR GREATER EASE ABOUT ACCEPTING PUBLIC
AND PRIVATE CRITICISM OF THE PARTY AND COMMUNIST SYSTEM
SYSTEM UNDER MANH'S RULE. TWO MORE PROMINENT ACTIVISTS
WERE DETAINED SHORTLY AFTER CHRISTMAS.


9. (C) MANH HAS ACKNOWLEDGED OFTEN AND FORCEFULLY THE
NEED FOR THE CPV TO CLEAN UP ITS OWN ACT AND MOVE
QUICKLY AND DECISIVELY AGAINST CORRUPTION IN ITS MIDST.
THE UPCOMING "NAM CAM" MAFIA CASE IS APT TO BE THE
SHOWCASE EFFORT IN THIS REGARD, ALTHOUGH MOST OF ITS
OFFICIAL VICTIMS HELD GVN -- RATHER THAN CPV -- POSTS.
THE MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND INFORMATION ON DECEMBER 19
FORMALLY CRITICIZED THE MEDIA (IN PARTICULAR TUOI TRE
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"YOUTH" AND GIA DINH VA XA HOI "FAMILY AND SOCIETY")
FOR REPORTING "IRRESPONSIBLY" AND "INACCURATELY" THAT
SENIOR OFFICIALS EVEN ABOVE THE DEPUTY MINISTER-LEVEL
WOULD BE IMPLICATED IN THIS CASE.

POLITICAL ALLIES?
--------------


10. (C) UNFORTUNATELY, EMBASSY HAS NO INSIGHT INTO
THE ALLIANCES WITHIN THE CPV LEADERSHIP MANH HAS
FORGED, OR INTO THE DYNAMICS OF DECISION-MAKING AT THAT
LEVEL. HIS TECHNOCRATIC BACKGROUND AND STUDIES
OVERSEAS LEFT HIM PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE
MILITARY/PUBLIC SECURITY LOOP, AND OUR ASSUMPTION IS
THAT THESE LINKS ARE NOT HIS MAJOR STRENGTHS, DESPITE
HIS CHAIRMANSHIP OF THE CPV'S MILITARY COMMISSION. NOR
ARE THERE OBVIOUS CONNECTIONS WITH THE ONCE ALL-
POWERFUL PROPAGANDA AND IDEOLOGICAL ORGANS OF THE CPV;
WE DO NOT EXPECT SCHOOLCHILDREN TO START READING NONG
DUC MANH'S COLLECTED WORKS, OR TO SEE ANY MANH-PRODUCED
VERSION OF JIANG ZEMIN'S "THREE REPRESENTS" ENTER THE
THE CPV PANTHEON ANY TIME SOON. THE ORGANIZATIONAL/
PERSONNEL WING OF THE CPV APPARENTLY REMAINS UNDER THE
DOMINATION OF NA CHAIRMAN NGUYEN VAN AN, WHO MANY
ASSUME MAY STILL BE A REAL OR POTENTIAL RIVAL AFTER
HAVING LOST THE GENERAL SECRETARY SWEEPSTAKES TO MANH
AT THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS.

GOING OUT ON A LIMB
--------------

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11. (C) WAS MANH'S ELEVATION TO THE SENIOR LEADERSHIP
SLOT MERELY A MATTER OF NICE GUYS -- OR AT LEAST
SOMEONE WITHOUT ANY KNOWN CORRUPT TINGES IN HIS FAMILY
TREE -- FINISHING FIRST? WAS IT DYNASTIC DEFERENCE TO
HIS ALLEGED DESCENT FROM HO CHI MINH? IS HE AN
UNLIKELY PUPPET OF FORMER "SENIOR ADVISER" DU MUOI OR
PENULTIMATE CPV LEADER LE KHA PHIEU (BOTH OF WHOM WERE
DUTIFULLY TROTTED OUT AT THE OPENING AND CLOSING OF THE
LATEST NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SESSIONS IN ANOTHER GESTURE OF
SOLIDARITY)? OR IS HE JUST THAT LOWEST COMMON
DENOMINATOR CANDIDATE WHO COULD BE COUNTED ON NOT TO
ROCK THE SHIP OF STATE AT A DELICATE HISTORICAL
JUNCTION?


12. (C) WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWERS TO THE ABOVE
QUESTIONS; NOR, WE SUSPECT, DOES VIRTUALLY ANYONE IN
VIETNAM TODAY. WE ARE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT THERE
IS A LOT MORE TO MANH THAN MEETS THE EYE, BUT THAT HE
NEEDS TO PROCEED CAUTIOUSLY GIVEN A POLITBURO AND
CENTRAL COMMITTEE PROBABLY NOT OF HIS OWN DESIGN OR
SHAPING. AT THE END OF THE DAY, MANH LIKELY SHARES THE

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ACTION EAP-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 CIAE-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00 DS-00 EB-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 DCP-01
NSAE-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W
-------------- 1E6C96 310253Z /38
R 310206Z DEC 02
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8499
INFO ASEAN COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BEIJING
SECDEF WASHDC
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HANOI 003099

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

SECDEF FOR ISA/ACHUA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/13
SUBJ: ASSESSING NONG DUC MANH'S LEADERSHIP

CONVICTION OF HIS PEERS THAT THE CPV MUST BE VIGILANT
IN RETAINING ITS EXCLUSIVE HOLD ON POLITICAL POWER AS
WELL AS ITS FINAL SAY ON THE ECONOMY. THE CPV UNDER
MANH IS UNLIKELY TO ACCEPT NEW BOUNDARIES FOR PUBLIC
DISSENT OR TURN A BLIND EYE TO PERCEIVED CHALLENGES TO
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NATIONAL SOLIDARITY AND UNITY.
BURGHARDT

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