CPV STILL DECIDING ON GVN LEADERSHIP SLOTS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001571

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/12
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR VM DPOL
SUBJECT: CPV STILL DECIDING ON GVN LEADERSHIP SLOTS?

REF: A. HANOI 1432 B. HANOI 1485


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POL/C SCOTT BELLARD, REASON: 1.5
(D)
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HANOI 01571 01 OF 02 191009Z


2. (C) SUMMARY. AN EXPECTED CPV PLENUM IN JULY
SHOULD MAKE FINAL DECISIONS ON THE NEW GVN LEADERSHIP
LINE-UP, AND MAY ALSO BLESS PUNISHMENTS AGAINST SEVERAL
SENIOR OFFICIALS BELIEVED TO BE GUILTY OF CORRUPTION OR
OTHER WRONG-DOING. THESE BEHIND-THE-SCENES
DELIBERATIONS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO VERIFY, AND WE EXPECT
VARIOUS RUMORS WILL CONTINUE TO EMERGE UNTIL THE
DETAILS HAVE BEEN PINNED DOWN IN PRIVATE. END SUMMARY.


3. (C) ACCORDING TO LE THO BINH, CHIEF OF THE
EDITORIAL BOARD OF "COUNTRYSIDE TODAY," THE SIXTH
PLENUM OF THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS OF THE COMMUNIST
PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) HAS BEEN DELAYED SEVERAL TIMES
DUE TO ONGOING INTERNAL DEBATES ABOUT THE NEW GVN
LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE THAT WILL BE VOTED UPON BY THE
11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) IN JULY (REF A). THE NA
MUST BY LAW MEET BY JULY 19 -- WITHIN TWO MONTHS FROM
THE MAY ELECTIONS -- AND SEVERAL NA SOURCES HAVE
SEPARATELY PREDICTED THE OPENING DATE WILL BE JULY 14.


4. (C) BINH, PREVIOUSLY A HARD-CHARGING INVESTIGATIVE
REPORTER WITH TUOI TRE NEWSPAPER, TOLD POLOFF ON JUNE
18 THAT THE PLENUM HAD INITIALLY BEEN PROPOSED FOR JUNE
15 OR 17, BUT WILL NOW MORE PROBABLY BEGIN O/A JULY 5.
BINH'S CPV SOURCES HAVE CLAIMED THAT THE NINE OUT OF
THE FIFTEEN POLIBURO MEMBERS HAVE AGREED THAT PRIME
MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI SHOULD REMAIN IN OFFICE FOR NOW,
A RUMOR THAT IS ALSO WIDELY CIRCULATING ELSEWHERE.
PRESIDENT TRAN DUC LUONG, DANANG PARTY CHIEF PHAN DIEN,
MASS MOBILIZATION CHIEF TRUONG QUANG DUOC, AND ECONOMIC
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HANOI 01571 01 OF 02 191009Z
COMMISSION CHIEF TRUONG TAN SANG REPORTEDLY HAD
NONETHELESS EXPRESSED THEIR SUPPORT WITHIN THE
POLITBURO FOR DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG TO
MOVE INTO THE TOP SPOT THIS SUMMER.


5. (C) MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN IS STILL SEEN BY
BINH'S CONTACTS (AND OTHERS) TO BE THE HANDS-ON
FAVORITE TO MOVE UP TO A DPM POSITION, MOST PROBABLY
THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS/TRADE SLOT NOW FILLED BY DPM NGUYEN
MANH CAM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION THAT THE
NUMBER OF DPM SLOTS COULD DECLINE FROM FOUR TO THREE
WITH THE EXPECTED RETIREMENTS OF DPM CAM AND DPM NGUYEN
CONG TAN. FORMER MINISTER OF TRADE AND CURRENT NGHE AN
PROVINCIAL PARTY BOSS TRUONG DINH TUYEN IS RUMORED TO
BE A FAVORITE TO REPLACE VU KHOAN AT MOT, DESPITE
WISHES OF SOME SENIOR MOT OFFICIALS FOR AN IN-HOUSE
CANDIDATE AND SOME DISSATISFACTION WITH TUYEN'S EARLIER
PERFORMANCE AT MOT (INCLUDING OVER BILATERAL TRADE
AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS).


6. (C) THE WIDELY-RUMORED RETIREMENT OF MINISTER OF
PUBLIC SECURITY LT. GENERAL LE MINH HUONG IS REPORTEDLY
RUNNING INTO DIFFICULTIES IN LIGHT OF ALLEGATIONS
AGAINST CURRENT VICE MINISTERS (PARA 8). SOME OF
BINH'S CONTACTS HAVE SPECULATED THAT EXTENSION OF MPS'
HUONG MIGHT "FOR BALANCE" NECESSITATE A SIMILAR
EXTENSION OF MINISTER OF DEFENSE LT. GENERAL PHAM VAN
TRA, WHO WAS RE-ELECTED TO THE NA IN MAY. (MOD
OFFICIALS HAVE SEPARATELY INDICATED THAT GENERAL TRA
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE THIS FALL TO ACCEPT THE
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE'S RECIPROCAL INVITATION TO VISIT.)

SIPDIS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HANOI 01571 01 OF 02 191009Z
OTHER SOURCES HAVE INDICATED THAT MINISTER OF JUSTICE
LOC IS A SURE BET TO STEP DOWN; MOJ CONTACTS HAVE TOLD
POLOFFS PRIVATELY THAT VICE MINISTER UONG CHU LUU
(ALREADY A CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER AND NA DELEGATE)
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REPLACE LOC, WHICH WILL PROBABLY
MAKE LUU THE YOUNGEST MINISTER. AT THE MINISTRY OF
PLANNING AND INVESTMENT, MINISTER TRAN XUAN GIA IS
WIDELY EXPECTED TO STEP DOWN IN FAVOR OF VICE MINISTER
VO HONG PHUC.


7. (C) ACCORDING TO BINH'S SOURCES, THE CPV'S
INVESTIGATION COMMISSION WILL ALSO REPORT TO THE PLENUM
ON A NUMBER OF HIGH-RANKING CPV MEMBERS AND GVN
OFFICIALS WHO SHOULD FACE CENSURE AND/OR PUNISHMENT;
15 OF THEM ARE REPORTEDLY NEW NA MEMBERS. AMONG THE
EXPECTED VICTIMS ARE FORMER "VOICE OF VIETNAM" DIRECTOR
GENERAL TRAN MAI HANH AND MPS VICE MINISTER BUI QUOC
HUY, BOTH OF WHOM HAVE BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE ONGOING
INVESTIGATION OF HO CHI MINH CITY "MAFIA" KING "NAM
CAM" (REF B).


8. (U) "TUOI TRE" REPORTED ON JUNE 19 THAT THE
POLITBURO AND SECRETARIAT HAD DECIDED TO EXAMINE MORE
CLOSELY THE ACTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING CPV ORGANS AND

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3434

PAGE 01 HANOI 01571 02 OF 02 191009Z
ACTION EAP-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 ECA-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02
G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /006W
-------------- BF5868 191011Z /38
R 191008Z JUN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6801
INFO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE
SECDEF WASHDC
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 001571

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV

INDIVIDUALS IN CONNECTION WITH THE NAM CAM CASE:
-- CENTRAL PUBLIC SECURITY PARTY COMMITTEE
-- SUPREME PEOPLE'S PROCURACY PARTY COMMITTEE
-- STANDING COMMITTEE OF THE HCMC PARTY COMMITTEE
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HANOI 01571 02 OF 02 191009Z
-- LT. GEN. BUI BUI QUOC HUY, MPS VICE MINISTER,
CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER, AND FORMER HCMC POLICE CHIEF
-- MAJOR GENERAL HOANG NGOC NHAT, MPS VICE MINISTER
-- MAJOR GENERAL DO NAM, MPS DIRECTOR FOR PRISONS
-- PHAM SY CHIEN, FORMER CHIEF PROCURATOR, SUPREME
PEOPLE'S PROCURACY
-- TRAN MAI HAN, FORMER DIRECTOR GENERAL OF VOICE OF
VIETNAM
-- LE THANH DAO, FORMER CHIEF PROCURATOR, SUPREME
PEOPLE'S PROCURACY


9. (C) COMMENT: MUCH IS AT STAKE IN THE LEADERSHIP
SWEEPSTAKES, NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF PERSONAL FIEFDOMS BUT
ALSO IN CONVINCING THE PUBLIC THAT THE CPV AND GVN TAKE
SERIOUSLY THESE ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION AND
MISCONDUCT AND ARE PREPARED TO MOVE AGAINST EVEN SENIOR
RANKING OFFICIALS. THE EXTENSIVE MEDIA COVERAGE GIVEN
TO THE NAM CAM CASE CANNOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
PROMOTION ASPIRATIONS OF HCMC PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH
TRIET, ANOTHER FRONT-RUNNER AS EVENTUAL SUCCESSOR TO PM
KHAI. THE MEDIA CAMPAIGN MAY INDEED BE AN INDIRECT
POLITICAL ATTACK ON TRIET HIMSELF. WE EXPECT THE
RUMOR MILL TO CONTINUE TO FLOURISH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE
PARTY PLENUM AND NA OPENING SESSION. AT THE SAME TIME,
WE PREDICT A PUBLIC SHOW OF UNITY WITHIN THE CPV AND NA
ONCE THESE PERSONNEL AND PUNISHMENT DECISIONS ALIKE
HAVE BEEN MADE IN PRIVATE.
PORTER

CONFIDENTIAL