Peace Process Update: Reports of ceasefire

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002341

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12-23-12
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM EAID CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: Peace Process Update: Reports of ceasefire
violations spike down; One-year milestone for process

Refs: Colombo 2337, and previous (Notal)

(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews
the following:

- Reports of ceasefire violations spike way down

- Criticism of government and Norwegians over import of
radio equipment for LTTE continues to flare

- GSL-LTTE meeting in London canceled, but January talks
in Bangkok still on

- Although tension in party does not abate, Muslim
leader Rauf Hakeem seems back on top -- for now

- The Flavor of the Peace Process: December 24 marks
one-year milestone

==============================
Reported Violations Spike Down
==============================


2. (U) The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) has
announced that reported violations of the February
ceasefire accord have spiked way down. The Norwegian-
run SLMM stated that there had been a total of 146
reports in November of which 33 were against the Sri
Lankan government and 113 against the Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The November total compares with
the average of about 300-400 alleged violations reported
to the SLMM during each of the previous months. Of the
113 reported violations attributed to the LTTE, the SLMM
announced that 38 involved the forcible recruitment of
children for the Tigers' armed forces. The SLMM
continued to investigate these reports, as well as a
number of others involving the LTTE. In terms of the 33
reports involving the GSL, the SLMM had investigated
them and determined that none were violations.


3. (SBU) (((Note: An important ceasefire-related issue
under in-depth discussion between the two sides lately
involves the GSL military's "high security zones" in the
north/east, and their impact on the local populace.
Late last week, the GSL handed over a proposal regarding
high security zone adjustments to the SLMM. This
proposal is being provided to the LTTE for review.)))


4. (C) COMMENT: The latest news re reported violations
is a positive development. At this point, both sides
seem to be honoring the ceasefire accord more than at
any point since it was signed in February. The bad news
is that the LTTE still appears to be involved in the
forcible recruitment of children. UNICEF is working
with the LTTE on this issue and reports that the group
is being cooperative, but that much progress needs to be
made. END COMMENT.

========================================
Critics Lash Out over Equipment for LTTE
========================================


5. (SBU) Critics continue to lash out at the GSL and
the Norwegian facilitators over the recent import of
radio equipment for the LTTE. (Note: At the
government's request, the Norwegian Embassy imported
LTTE-purchased radio equipment in a diplomatic
consignment. After the equipment was handed over to the
GSL, the equipment was sent to the LTTE's "Voice of the
Tigers'" radio station -- See Reftel.) In a December 20
press briefing, a People's Alliance (PA) spokesman
accused the GSL of "treason," asserting that the
government should not have allowed the equipment to be
brought in the country. In addition, spokesmen for the
radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party have
denounced the Norwegian role, claiming that the GoN had
abused its diplomatic status by allowing the equipment
to be brought in duty free. The JVP is planning to hold
a demonstration in front of the Norwegian Embassy late
December 23.


6. (C) COMMENT: This issue does not seem to be dying.
While emanating from the usual anti-peace process
sources, the attacks on the Norwegians are
getting increasingly vitriolic. In particular,
Norwegian Ambassador Jon Westborg has taken some harsh
hits, with many of the attacks taking personal aim at
him. Despite the fact that it asked the GoN to become
involved in the first place, the government has not
rushed in to defend the Norwegians, as of yet.
Addressing this point, Tomas Stangeland, poloff at the
Norwegian Embassy, told us today that he thought the
government would issue a statement clarifying the matter
soon. He noted that it was difficult for the GoN to say
anything in its defense until the GSL explained its key
role in public. END COMMENT.

==========================
Meeting in London Canceled
==========================


7. (C) A meeting between G.L. Peiris, a senior
government minister, and Anton Balasingham, the chief
negotiator for the LTTE, was canceled last week. The
meeting was supposed to take place in London on
December 18, but Balasingham canceled at the last minute
for "health" reasons. Tomas Stangeland of the Norwegian
Embassy told us it was indeed possible that Balasingham
was ill. (Note: Balasingham has had very serious
health problems for years.) According to Stangeland,
however, it also seemed a real possibility that
Balasingham was upset with a recent letter from the
Japanese government to the LTTE reviewing how the GoJ
disburses development assistance. Stangeland said the
GoJ letter apparently made it clear that funding had to
go to the GSL first -- and only then out to projects in
LTTE-controlled areas. (Note: The LTTE believes that
it should control the funding to the full extent
possible.)


8. (C) COMMENT: The cancellation of the London meeting
was unfortunate -- Stangeland said the meeting would
have been useful in mapping out next steps in the peace
process. That said, despite continued discussion about
the nature of aid disbursements, the fourth session of
GSL-LTTE talks slated to take place in Thailand from
January 6-9 still seems to be on track. END COMMENT.

===================================
Hakeem Seems Back on Top -- For Now
===================================


9. (C) The saga involving splits in the Sri Lanka
Muslim Congress (SLMC) shows little sign of abating
soon. Both party leader (and GSL minister) Rauf Hakeem
and his SLMC opponents continue to hit out at each other
in almost daily attacks. Hakeem insists that he has
suspended the rebels from party activities and he is
threatening to expel them altogether if they do not toe
the line. In the meantime, the rebels assert that
Hakeem has been removed as leader and expelled from the
party. Of late, Hakeem appears to be gaining the edge
in the fight. On December 13, he won a court case,
which turned down a demand from the rebels that he be
enjoined from acting as party leader. In addition,
Hakeem seems to be having some success on the stump in
uniting the rest of the SLMC against the rebels. While
the two sides remain at loggerheads, various efforts are
under way to mediate the conflict.


10. (C) COMMENT: Hakeem has led an effective legal and
political counterattack against his SLMC opponents, so
far. He seems animated and less aloof, which has helped
him as he fights for his political life. His grip on
power still seems fragile, however, and it is not clear
how long he can keep the initiative. Given the nasty,
internecine struggle, it is also not clear whether
Hakeem will be present at the fourth session of GSL-LTTE
talks. (Note: Hakeem was present throughout the first
two rounds as a member of the government's team, but had
to leave suddenly in the middle of the third session in
early December because of his political troubles back
home.) END COMMENT.

==================
One-Year Milestone
==================


11. (U) The peace process is about to celebrate its
one-year anniversary. December 24 will mark one-year
since the start of the process. (Note: At midnight on
December 24, 2001, both sides joined in unilateral,
ceasefires renewable on a month-by-month basis. In
February 2002, both sides reached agreement on the
ceasefire accord now in place.) With much of the
country effectively shutting down for the holiday
season, few festivities marking the one-year anniversary
of the process are planned, although some churches are
planning to ring their bells in a salute to the
occasion. Neither the government, the LTTE nor the
Norwegian facilitators are planning any official
programs.


12. (SBU) COMMENT: Thanks to the peace process, there
have not been any major incidents of violence in Sri
Lanka in the past year. This is quite a remarkable
achievement, given the fact that in previous years over
66,000 thousand people were killed on the battlefield or
in LTTE-sponsored terrorist attacks. This iteration of
the peace process is already the longest break in
violence the country has experienced by far since the
conflict began in 1983. (Note: The longest cessation
of hostilities before the current process was in 1994-95
and lasted about six months. Breaks in the fighting in
1987, 1990, and 2000-01 each lasted only a handful of
months.) END COMMENT.


13. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS