Tensions rise incrementally as LTTE demands

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 002319

SIPDIS

FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12-17-12
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Tensions rise incrementally as LTTE demands
EPDP leave Jaffna; GSL supports EPDP's political rights

Ref: Colombo 2184

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, DCM. Reasons 1.5
(b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The last few weeks have seen continued
tension between the Eelam People's Democratic Party
(EPDP) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
The tension was briefly highlighted when the LTTE stated
that the EPDP must leave Jaffna. In return, the EPDP is
accusing the LTTE of instigating violent clashes.
Despite the clashes the EPDP is generally satisfied that
the GSL is protecting the EPDP's legitimate political
activities. There is some concern by the opposition
that the GSL may not maintain the EPDP's protection if
the LTTE pushes the issue, however. END SUMMARY.

Recent incidents
--------------


2. (SBU) The past couple of weeks have seen an
incremental increase in tensions between the LTTE and
the also Tamil EPDP. Incidents between the EPDP and the
LTTE are not new; the EPDP is historically anti-LTTE and
has cooperated with previous governments in attacking
them. The most recent round of incidents appears to
have been sparked by the EPDP opening new political
offices in the Jaffna area of northern Sri Lanka in
November. The expansion immediately led to clashes
between local communities and the EPDP cadre, as
reviewed in Reftel. GSL security forces briefly
suppressed the most violent clashes. The continuation
of the clashes can be seen in the newspaper headlines of
the last week, which include these headlines from "The
Island" (an anti-peace process English language paper):

-- December 14, "Unidentified gang hurls bomb at EPDP
office"

-- December 13, "LTTE bombs damage EPDP office"

-- December 12, "Public may be involved in EPDP office
attacks - IGP" (Inspector General of Police)

-- December 11, "Tigers trick students to attack EPDP
office"

LTTE statement
--------------


3. (SBU) During a December 14 press conference,
following a meeting of the Sub-committee on De-
escalation and Normalization (SDN),Commander of the
LTTE in the Batticaloa and Ampara Districts Colonel
Karuna stated that the LTTE had put forward its "demand
that the EPDP should be ousted from the Jaffna
Peninsula." Karuna was also quoted as stating that
"some elements are using the EPDP to derail the peace
process." He accused the EPDP of instigating violent
incidents throughout the peninsula. He further stated
that the SDN has to give its "final decision" on this
issue during the next meeting, currently scheduled for
January 20.


4. (SBU) Karuna's comments were in contrast to a
Norwegian Press Release on the SDN meeting itself.
((NOTE: The release commented on issues concerning GSL
occupied High Security Zones and on the constructive
atmosphere of the talks.)) Kethesh Loganathan, of the
Center for Policy Alternatives (a well regarded local
think tank),believes that Karuna's statements probably
accurately reflect LTTE policies. He further commented
that although Karuna probably revealed more than he
should have, the media outlets controlled by the LTTE
did not contradict any of Karuna's statements.

EPDP's stance
--------------


5. (C) The EPDP, in turn, accuses the LTTE of
instigating violence against legal EPDP political
offices. EPDP political advisor Dr. K. Vigneswaran
stated that the LTTE is clearly the aggressor in the
recent spate of incidents, but that it will not be able
to keep up the violence much longer. He said the LTTE
was able to keep unrest going on Delft Island (an island
between Sri Lanka and India that is a traditional
stronghold of the EPDP) only for a couple of weeks.
Eventually the people got tired of the LTTE bringing in
a couple of hundred students to conduct protests,
causing shops to close and preventing fishing.
Eventually the local community wanted to return to
normal. Vigneswaran indicated that the EPDP would hold
out in areas of Jaffna until the same process occurs
there.

6. (C) Vigneswaran added that the EPDP cadre were
willing to continue their work because they were
satisfied with the government's efforts to protect their
political rights from LTTE instigated attacks. He added
that the EPDP policy is that the LTTE can not kick them
out; only the people can vote them out at the ballot
box. Harim Peiris, a Presidential Spokesman, commented
that the EPDP and the Security Forces have a history of
working together so unless otherwise ordered the
military and police will protect the rights of the EPDP.
Peiris added that the GSL is currently doing the right
thing in standing up to the LTTE on these demands.

Possible outcomes
--------------


7. (C) Peiris expressed concern that if the EPDP's
presence in Jaffna becomes a major stumbling block in
the peace talks the GSL may back down "for the overall
good." Where Vigneswaran sees the LTTE eventually
backing down because the local Tamil community becomes
tired of agitation, Peiris worried that the GSL would
tire of resisting the LTTE and back down. Loganathan
emphasized that even if the GSL wanted to accede to the
LTTE demands it could not easily remove elected
parliamentary officials from the districts they
represent. On the other hand, Peiris believes that if
the LTTE applies enough pressure the GSL will remove
Security Force protection from EPDP offices.
Vigneswaran added that the EPDP will stay as long as the
agitation remains at the level of shouting, rock
throwing, and intermittent firebombs; if shooting starts
the EPDP will have to withdraw.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The current tensions surrounding the EPDP in
Jaffna are by no means a crisis, but the string of
incidents is one clear example of the obstacles the
government must surmount in the current peace process.
Despite the EPDP's history of being involved in
disappearance, torture, extortion and other activities,
it is a viable Tamil political party in Sri Lanka. The
LTTE's demand that the EPDP be removed from Jaffna is
one that brings into doubt recent LTTE pledges to allow
other parties to operate in Tamil areas. Having said
that, there is still a month to go before the next SDN
meeting -- and the LTTE's deadline -- and much can
happen to resolve this issue or bring another to the
forefront.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

Wills