Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02COLOMBO2267
2002-12-09 10:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

Just-concluded talks help peace process gain

Tags:  PGOV PTER PINS PHUM CE LTTE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002267 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA AND SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12-09-12
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Just-concluded talks help peace process gain
new traction as one-year milestone comes in sight

Refs: (A) Oslo 2723 (Notal)

- (B) Colombo 2246, and previous

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002267

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA AND SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12-09-12
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Just-concluded talks help peace process gain
new traction as one-year milestone comes in sight

Refs: (A) Oslo 2723 (Notal)

- (B) Colombo 2246, and previous

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The just-concluded third session of
GSL-LTTE talks has helped the peace process pick up
significant new traction. In particular, the LTTE's
agreement to examine federalism as a potential solution
to the conflict was a key shift by the group away from
separatism or a confederal model. The two sides'
agreement to numerous confidence-building measures was
also noteworthy. Despite the progress, many questions
remain about the exact nature of any federal-type
solution. Overall, in the wake of the recent talks and
the Oslo donors' conference, the peace process seems
stronger than ever as it moves toward its one-year
anniversary. END SUMMARY.

============================
LTTE Shift toward Federalism
============================


2. (C) The just-concluded third session of talks in Oslo
helped the peace process pick up significant new
traction. (Note: The talks took place December 2-5.
The Norwegian government's press communique reviewing
the results of the talks is contained in Ref A. The
next session of talks is scheduled for January 6-9,
2003.) In particular, the LTTE's agreement to explore
the possible creation of a federal system within a
united Sri Lanka as a potential solution to the conflict
was a key shift by the group. While the LTTE has been
shying away from outright separatism in its public
statements of late, this was the first time the LTTE has
ever explicitly accepted the notion that it could work
within a united Sri Lanka. (Note: According to
Minister Milinda Moragoda, the LTTE proposed the
federalism language on its own volition.)


3. (C) In judging the significance of the understanding
on this issue, it is noteworthy that the LTTE's prior
definitions of "Tamil Eelam" seemed to preclude any form
of subordination by a Tamil (read LTTE)-controlled

north/east unit to the government in Colombo. In
agreeing to examine federalism, however, the Tigers not
only seem to be rejecting separatism, but also
confederation, i.e., the setting up of a parallel
administration in the north and east equal in status to
Colombo. In fact, just this last April, LTTE negotiator
Anton Balasingham indicated that he considered LTTE
leader V. Prabhakaran as "prime minister" for LTTE-
controlled areas with PM Wickremesinghe in charge of the
south. The LTTE now seems to be indicating that it
might be able to accept subordination to the GSL's
president, prime minister, and parliament, in return for
some form of autonomy. It is not even close to being
agreed to yet (see paras 5-7 for more on potential
problem areas),but the LTTE effectively appears to be
indicating that a governor or something similar (as
opposed to a LTTE-selected "president" or "PM") could
head up a north/east unit.

================================
Key Confidence-Building Measures
================================


4. (C) In addition to the understanding re federalism,
the two sides' agreement to numerous confidence-building
measures was also noteworthy. The following
understandings, encapsulated in the press communique,
stood out in potential importance:

-- LTTE/Other Parties: The LTTE agreed to accept the
right of other political groups to carry out political
activities. In mentioning this agreement, the
communique made specific reference to the right of other
parties to carry out political work in Jaffna District
and its islands. (Note: This issue came up because the
LTTE, amid some violence, has been engaged in trying to
prevent other Tamil parties from political work in the
islands off Jaffna in recent weeks.)

-- LTTE "Legal" System: The LTTE agreed that its "law
and order mechanisms" will not be extended beyond areas
already under the group's control. (Note: Before the
Oslo talks began, the government promised to raise the
issue of the recent expansion of the LTTE's "court"
system. In agreeing to this language, the LTTE
indicated that it would stop imposing its "legal" system
on Tamils living in GSL-controlled sectors of the north
and east. The agreed language seems to permit the LTTE
to continue imposing its "legal" system on Tamils living
in areas under the group's control, however.)

-- Movement of LTTE Commanders: The LTTE agreed that
the group would allow the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) to supervise the transport and
movement of LTTE commanders between sectors.
(Note: Reacting to GSL complaints, the SLMM has been
urging the LTTE to ensure that its commanders work with
the monitoring group on all significant movements, per
the February ceasefire accord. There have been several
cases where LTTE commanders have moved from the northern
sector to the east and vice versa without notifying the
SLMM.)

-- LTTE and Children: The parties agreed that children
should not be involved in political or military
activities. The LTTE also agreed to work with UNICEF to
draw up an "action plan" in this area. (Note: The LTTE
has made many promises of this sort in the past. By
most accounts, the LTTE remains engaged in forcibly
recruiting children into its political/military system.)

=======================
Questions re Federalism
=======================


5. (C) Despite all of the significant progress made at
Oslo, much work is still needed on many issues involving
federalism. The concept itself is potentially quite
controversial in Sri Lanka. It is still not fully clear
whether Sinhalese chauvinists in the south will in fact
come to accept the notion of a federal system. For
decades, pro-Sinhalese elements have demanded that the
country remain totally "unitary," i.e., no devolution of
authority, no regional autonomy, etc. Indeed, to
suggest that Sri Lanka be anything less than a unitary
state was seen almost as traitorous behavior and an
infringement on Sri Lanka's putative identity as a
Sinhalese Buddhist nation. Through the years, there has
been some modification in the intensity in which such
views are held, but the anti-federalism streak has
remained noticeable. (Note: In fact, it has been one
of those perennial "third rail" issues mentioned below.)
Given the potential for controversy over the issue, the
exact parameters of any federal solution will require
much negotiation, as well as great care in selling any
understandings -- including possible constitutional
proposals -- to the Sinhalese south. (Note: In a press
conference held after the conclusion of the talks on
December 5, government and LTTE negotiators indicated
that constitutional changes, perhaps even a new
constitution, would be necessary -- see Ref A.)


6. (C) One of the areas involving federalism that need
further refinement concerns exactly to whom it might
apply to. According to the communique of the Oslo
talks, the two sides agreed that federalism would be
founded on "internal self-determination in areas of
historical habitation of the Tamil-speaking people."
The phrase "Tamil-speaking people" has proved
controversial in the past. A similar phrase was used in
the 1987 Indo-Sri Lankan peace accord and it was not
clear at that time to which communities the phrase
applied. In Sri Lanka, for example, at least three
distinct communities speak Tamil: Tamils in the north
and east; tea estate Tamils in the central highlands;
and Muslims. It is this last community, the Muslims
(and especially those in the east),that is bound to be
most worried about any "federal" solution being applied
to them. (Note: Muslims in the east bitterly resent
the LTTE and are fearful of coming under the group's
control, given the LTTE's long-standing claim that all
of the east should be under Tamil domination.)


7. (C) Another area that needs further definition is the
precise scope of a possible federal model and its
application to Sri Lanka's domestic scene. Would it
apply to the center's relations with other areas, too?,
i.e., would it be "symmetric" devolution? or would it be
"asymmetric" devolution (applying to only the north and
east)? These issues have to be answered because it is
possible that other regions of Sri Lanka might seek
autonomous rights.
=======
COMMENT
=======


8. (C) In the wake of the recent talks and the Oslo
donors' conference before that, the peace process seems
stronger than ever as it moves toward its one-year
anniversary. (Note: The peace process started with the
LTTE and GSL joining in unilateral ceasefires beginning
December 24, 2001.) Thus far, the process seems to have
survived numerous "third rails" of Sri Lankan politics,
which were supposed to knock it permanently off course.
The GSL's legalization of the LTTE in September, for
example, was supposed to lead to mass protests by
Sinhalese chauvinists, but, in actuality, little
happened. At the same time, the introduction of the
word "federalism" into the negotiations was supposed to
ignite problems in the south -- so far, however, there
has been little reaction. There could still be problems
over many issues, but the peace process seems to be
maintaining immense public support at this time. END
COMMENT.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS