High hopes for Oslo conference, as Sri Lankans

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002174

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11-21-02
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EAID CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: High hopes for Oslo conference, as Sri Lankans
welcome international focus on peace effort

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 201402Z Nov 02

- (B) Colombo 2160, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. Reasons
1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Expectations in Sri Lanka are running
high for the November 25 Oslo conference. Observers see
the conference as a chance for the international
community to send a strong signal of support for the
peace effort. Amid this focus on a political message,
expectations have been lowered that the conference is
going to rake in big pledges for Sri Lanka. Slicing
against the grain, a small, vocal minority is fiercely
critical of the conference, seeing it as a boon for the
LTTE. After years of brutal war, the conference is a
vital moment for Sri Lanka as it tries to re-enter the
international mainstream. END SUMMARY.

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Seeking a Political Signal
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2. (C) The "Sri Lanka Peace Process Support Meeting"
scheduled for November 25 in Oslo is garnering lots of
buzz in Sri Lanka. Most Sri Lankans have high
expectations for the conference. Taking a cue from the
GSL (see below),observers primarily see the conference
as a chance for the international community to send a
strong political signal of support for the GSL-
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) peace effort.
In various recent conversations, Mission has picked up
the following perspectives:

-- Kedish Loganathan of the Center for Policy
Alternatives, a well-known local think-tank, told us
that the conference placed a bright spotlight on Sri
Lanka and its problems. Sri Lankans want a "political
signal" to emerge from the conference highlighting
international support for the peace process.

-- Gajan Ponnambalam, a Tamil National Alliance (TNA)
MP, told us that it was "a very good development to see
the GSL and the LTTE sitting down together with the
international community. It reflects how seriously the
international community views the peace process and also
the sincerity of its commitment to helping Sri Lanka."

-- Godfrey Gunatilleke, the Director of the Marga
Institute, a think-tank, remarked: "The Oslo
international forum focused on peace is very welcome.
Looking for support from the international community is
a positive step and will help set the peace process in
concrete."

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Less Focus on Pledging
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3. (C) Amid the focus on a political message,
expectations have been lowered that the conference is
going to rake in big pledges for Sri Lanka. Initially,
the government had tried to sell the conference mainly
as a way for the country to pick up funding support for
humanitarian/reconstruction projects. In fact, against
the backdrop of complaints that the GSL was not focusing
enough on bread-and-butter issues, the government had
seemed to indicate that the conference was a way for Sri
Lanka to help revive its economy. Perhaps because a
follow-on conference is scheduled to take place next
year in Japan with pledging as the main focus in any
case, the government is now lowballing the possibility
of large sums being raised at Oslo. G.L. Peiris, a
senior minister involved in peace process issues, made
this point in remarks at a press conference the other
day, stating:

"We are not hoping for astronomical sums of money. What
is important is not the magnitude of resources -- the
absorptive capacity is limited. What we expect most out
of the Oslo conference is a very strong, unequivocal
message of support and solidarity for the peace
process."


4. (SBU) (((Note: In line with the apparent shift in
emphasis from pledging to a more politically-focused
message, there has been a corresponding shift in the way
the Oslo conference is referred to: it had been called
a "donors' conference," but now is formally entitled
"Sri Lanka Peace Process Support Meeting.")))

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Small Band of Critics
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5. (SBU) Slicing against the grain, a small, vocal
minority is fiercely critical of the conference, seeing
it as wrong for the LTTE to be present. This view was
exemplified in an editorial in "The Island," an English-
language paper, on November 21. This editorial -- which
was placed on the front-page, a rare occurrence --
essentially echoed themes from previous "Island"
editorials (see Ref B),but in harsher tones. The main
point was that the international community was way out
of line in allowing the LTTE, a terrorist organization,
to participate in Oslo. The U.S. was specifically
signaled out for censure. Choicer bits of the editorial
included:

-- "The most saddening development of all will be that
the mighty democracies of the world, the stout defenders
of human rights, are likely to sit down for talks with
(the LTTE),despite they themselves having specifically
declared the LTTE a terrorist organization."

-- "The LTTE falls well into the category of
international terrorist organizations specified by UN
resolutions, in addition to being proscribed in the
U.S., Canada, Australia, Britain, and India. Can they
disregard their own anti-terrorist laws and UN anti-
terrorist resolutions in such a cavalier manner because
it suits their objectives?"

-- "Anti-terrorist laws clearly spell out there can be
no negotiations, direct or indirect, with terrorist
organizations. In law, those nations (participating in
Oslo) can only talk to the Sri Lankan government."


6. (C) This type of criticism does not seem to be
reverberating on the streets. As far as Mission is
aware, there have been no demonstrations against the
Oslo conference. Representatives of President
Kumaratunga's party, the People's Alliance (PA),and the
radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP),have hit out
at the Oslo conference in various speeches, however.
The PA even went so far as to issue a long public
statement late last week criticizing the GSL's handling
of the peace process and Norway's facilitation effort.
The statement also raised some questions about the
LTTE's participation in the conference -- See Ref B.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) After years of brutal war, the conference is a
big moment for Sri Lanka as it tries to re-enter the
international mainstream. The fact that key states --
most especially the U.S. -- are sitting down to
underscore support for Sri Lanka and its peace process
is considered very important here. We expect that the
conference will receive significant press coverage and
be a feather in the government's cap. There will
continue to be some dissonance from some quarters on the
issue of the LTTE's participation, but the conference
should accomplish its key purpose, i.e., strengthening
Sri Lanka's peace process. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS