Voting with their feet on the peace process,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 002101

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, DRL, PRM; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11-07-2002
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM PTER EAID CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Voting with their feet on the peace process,
returns by displaced persons spike up

Refs: (A) Colombo 2086; (B) Colombo 1619

(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Returns of Internally Displaced
Persons (IDPs) to points of origin in Sri Lanka have
surged, with a large percentage of the 213,000 total
returns this year transiting in the past eight weeks
alone. Most of the returns are to points in Jaffna, but
many have returned to the Tiger-controlled Wanni region.
The upward trend seems closely entwined with growth of
confidence in the peace process. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) There has been a surge in returns of IDPs to
their points of origin in Sri Lanka. From early
September to November 1, there have been 86,000 IDP
returnees, according to UNHCR. Before September, there
had been 127,000 returns since the year began. The
grand total for 2002 is 213,000. UNHCR reports that it
expects the numbers of returns to climb significantly
further in November.


3. (U) More than half of the returnees have transited
to points in Jaffna District. About a third of the
returnees have gone to points in Mullaitivu and
Kilinochchi Districts, which are under the control of
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). A much
smaller group of returnees has gone back to Mannar
District in the north and Trincomalee District in the
east, which are both under a patchwork of government and
LTTE control.


4. (U) UNHCR reports that there remain about 600,000
IDPs in Sri Lanka. Most of these are in camps scattered
throughout the country, but some are staying with family
members. Most IDPs are Tamils, as are the vast majority
of returnees. Very few of the Muslim IDPs ejected from
Jaffna in the early 1990s by the LTTE have returned.
UNHCR also reports that only a small handful of the
approximately 100,000 refugees in India have returned.
In addition, there is no sign that large numbers of the
estimated 750,000 Tamil expatriates who left since the
war began in 1983 have returned. (Note: Many of these
Tamils settled in Canada, Australia, the UK, and
elsewhere in Europe. A good percentage are
professionals.)


5. (C) The recent surge in returns seems directly
linked with positive news on the peace track.
Commenting along such lines, N. Raviraj, a Tamil
National Alliance (TNA) MP from Jaffna, told us that the
returnees he has met have expressed optimism that the
peace process was here to stay. (Note: Raviraj's war-
torn home area of Chavakachcheri has received many
returnees.) This sense of optimism has sharply
increased with the start of peace talks between the
government and the LTTE in mid-September. Raviraj said
he expected that the returns would continue to grow
given the positive coverage generated by the second
session of peace talks (See Ref A).


6. (C) Queried about the large number of returns to
LTTE areas, Raviraj noted that the choice of many
returnees to go there probably had to do with the growth
of confidence in the ongoing ceasefire. (Note: Areas
now controlled by the LTTE in the north were the site of
frequent and often large-scale fighting.) He did not
think it had anything to do with a spurt in support for
the LTTE. Raviraj related that the LTTE was trying to
be as helpful as possible to the returnees by offering
them some assistance, as well as land to farm. He
noted, however, that many of the returnees were very
poor, barely scratching out an existence.


7. (C) COMMENT: The UNHCR has classified the vast
majority of the returnees as "spontaneous," i.e., they
just got up and left without much in the way of support
from the government or anyone else. The UNHCR, in fact,
has basically advised IDPs to stay put until more
landmines are pulled from the ground and the peace
process creates an even more settled situation. The
fact that the returnees are going back under such
conditions -- and despite the UN's advice -- is a sign
of the high degree of enthusiasm the peace process has
stimulated. Further progress on the peace track could
trigger a veritable stampede of returnees. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS