Tumult among small parties undermines

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001968

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-21-12
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM PINR CE
SUBJECT: Tumult among small parties undermines
effectiveness of governing coalition

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 210134Z Oct 02

- (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 200752Z Oct 02
- (C) Colombo 1942, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. Reasons
1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The governing United National Party is
being buffeted by severe turbulence triggered by unhappy
junior coalition partners. The Sri Lanka Muslim
Congress is sharply divided over the peace process, for
example, while the major party for tea estate Tamils is
driving a hard bargain for its continued support.
Already on the defensive in its cohabitation battles
with the president, the coalition's widening fissures
are steadily undermining the effectiveness of the
government. END SUMMARY.


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UNP: A problem with the Numbers
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2. (C) The governing United National Party (UNP) is
experiencing serious problems with its junior partners.
(Note: The UNP, in league with other smaller parties,
makes up the United National Front, "UNF," governing
coalition.) While the largest single party in
Parliament with roughly 105 seats, the UNP is several
seats short of the 113 seats or more that are needed in
the 225-member Parliament for majority status. This
fact makes the UNP reliant on the support of its UNF
partners, including the five seats held by the Sri Lanka
Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the three seats held by the
tea estate Tamil Ceylon Workers Congress, in forming the
UNF's current 114 seat majority. (Note: The numbers of
seats provided are best estimates: some MPs run on
several party tickets, leading to various figures for
the total number of SLMC and tea estate Tamil MPs.)
Reflecting on the UNP's quandary, Desmond Fernando, a
well-known lawyer, recently told us -- "The government
is really at the mercy of the SLMC and the tea estate
Tamils for its majority."

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Fractures in Key Muslim Party
--------------


3. (C) Of the UNP's coalition-related problems, the
most serious is with the SLMC, the major Muslim party in
the country. Simply put, the SLMC seems to be gradually
breaking apart. The main fault line in the party is
between those who support the GSL's peace initiative
versus those who are against it. While this division
has been there since the UNF governing coalition was
formed in December 2001, the problem is only getting
worse -- and more public.


4. (C) The central player in the intra-SLMC conflict is
the party's leader, Rauf Hakeem. Most observers have
noted that Hakeem has been flat-out unable to unite all
elements of the SLMC in support of his pro-peace process
stance. In particular, SLMC MPs (and party faithful)
who are from the tense eastern area are up in arms over
what they see as Hakeem's failure to protect them from
the Tamil Tigers. SLMC members from the east note that
Hakeem is not from the east and accuse him of not caring
about their problems. (Note: Hakeem is from Kandy in
central Sri Lanka.) In making this latter charge, they
note that Hakeem recently made a statement indicating
that he did not support the idea of forming a separate
Muslim administrative unit in the east, a proposal
favored by many eastern Muslims. (Note: After a furor
erupted over his remarks, Hakeem later backed down --
see Reftel.) Summarizing the SLMC problem, P.
Saravanamuttu, the head of a local think-tank, told us
that there had been a failure of leadership by Hakeem
and there was little sign that he would ever be able to
bring the eastern Muslims with him.


5. (C) Aside from the issue of the peace process, there
appear to be additional reasons for the split in the
SLMC. Milinda Moragoda, the Minister of Economic Reform
and a key adviser to the prime minister, told us that
many in the SLMC were upset with Hakeem over the way he
was handling government "pork." Moragoda said he had
heard complaints that Hakeem was distributing goodies he
had obtained as minister of ports and shipping to his
supporters, and not to others within the party. This
was causing serious heartburn to many and contributing
to Hakeem's inability to control all elements of the
party.
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Tea Estate Tamils at odds with the GSL
--------------


6. (C) The UNP is also at odds with Sri Lanka's major
party for tea estate Tamils, the CWC. While the CWC is
strongly in favor of the GSL's peace initiative,
friction has emerged over the government's plans to move
forward with the "Upper Kotmale Dam" project. (Note:
The project involves building a Japanese-funded dam in
the hill country of central Sri Lanka.) Karu
Jayasuriya, the Minister for Power and the UNP's deputy
leader, has underscored that the project is crucial for
meeting Sri Lanka's electricity-generating needs, an
assessment most neutral observers agree with.


7. (C) A. Thondaman, the chief of the CWC and the
Minister for Housing, has angrily attacked the
government's plans, however. Thondaman has repeatedly
spilled harsh words, asserting that the project will
lead to serious environmental degradation and the loss
of jobs for tea estate Tamils. He has even threatened
to bolt the government over the issue, if necessary, and
has been deftly campaigning against the project with
important groups outside of his own tea estate Tamil
community. Thondaman, for example, recently gained the
support of the chief of the important Malwatte sect of
the Buddhist clergy to his anti-dam cause.


8. (C) Despite the heat it has been taking, the GSL has
indicated that it plans to go forward with the Kotmale
project. Jayasuriya, for one, has taken pains to assure
Thondaman that the government will do its best to
address all environmental and economic concerns. The
GSL's efforts seem to be working inasmuch as Thondaman
lately seems to be less testy on the subject than in the
immediate past. Nonetheless, there is a feeling that
Thondaman will continue to be a thorn in the
government's side. Making this point, Jehan Perera, the
head of the National Peace Council, a local NGO, told us
that "He (Thondaman) knows that the UNP needs him and he
will press the government for as much in return as he
possibly can get whenever he can."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) As reviewed in Reftel, the government is already
on the defensive in its cohabitation battles with the
president. The fact that the governing coalition itself
is coming under increasing centrifugal pressure has
further hindered its effectiveness vis-a-vis the
president, as well as hurting it as it grapples with
other pressing issues. That said, the fragility of the
UNP's governing coalition does not mean the government
is close to falling, as the UNP in extremis can count on
the support of the MPs affiliated with the Tamil parties
for now. Down the road, however, as the GSL deals with
ever more sensitive issues involving peace and the
economy, fractures in the coalition may only widen.
Among many in the UNP, the coalition and cohabitation
problems are of such magnitude that the PM may well be
moved to try to call an election sooner rather than
later. END COMMENT.


10. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS