Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02COLOMBO1942
2002-10-17 06:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Colombo
Cable title:  

GSL plan to rein in executive powers in

Tags:  PGOV PINS PHUM CE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001942 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-17-12
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM CE
SUBJECT: GSL plan to rein in executive powers in
disarray; Election, impeachment options under review

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 170638Z Oct 02

- (B) Colombo 1920, and previous

(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).

SUMMARY
=======
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001942

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-17-12
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM CE
SUBJECT: GSL plan to rein in executive powers in
disarray; Election, impeachment options under review

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 170638Z Oct 02

- (B) Colombo 1920, and previous

(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).

SUMMARY
=======

1. (C) The GSL's proposed constitutional amendment
reining in executive powers has run into a major
roadblock. While not officially announced, the Supreme
Court has reportedly decided that one part of the
proposal is unconstitutional and the other subject to a
referendum. This apparent decision comes amid reports
that the GSL might not have the support needed in
Parliament to pass the amendment in any case. With its
plans in disarray, the government is mulling over the
idea of calling a new election or maybe going for
impeachment of the president. The smoke has not yet
cleared, but it is still possible that all the confusion
could lead to better cohabitation ties, not worse. END
SUMMARY.

=======================================
Reported Legal Trouble for GSL Proposal
=======================================


2. (SBU) The government's proposed constitutional
amendment reining in the president's powers has run into
a major roadblock. Our soundings confirm October 17
press reports that the Supreme Court has apparently
decided the following (although it has not yet been
officially announced):

-- In addition to needing two-thirds support in
Parliament, the part of the proposed amendment that
would rein in the power of the president to call an
election one year after the last election requires a
national referendum. The effective transfer of the
power to call an election from the president to the
Parliament per the proposal is so "fundamental" that the
issue has to be put to a popular vote. The court left
the door open for the GSL to rewrite this part of the
proposed amendment in some way that better protected
executive prerogatives. (Note: The last parliamentary
election was held in December 2001. The government
pushed ahead on this effort to rein in President
Kumaratunga's powers out of fear that she would call a

new election in December 2002, her first opportunity to
do so.)

-- As for the other key section, the court reportedly
ruled that the proposal to allow crossover voting in
Parliament is basically unconstitutional. In doing
this, the court apparently determined that the power of
party whips to control MPs was a right protected by the
constitution. (Note: The GSL wanted this provision in
place as a way to protect members of other parties who
decided to support the proposed amendment. Without such
protection, members who vote against their party's
announced position can be tossed out of Parliament after
legal maneuvering.)

(Note: It is not clear when the Supreme Court's
official decision will be announced, but it is expected
soon.)

=======================================
Government Lacking Support In Any Case?
=======================================


3. (C) The Supreme Court's apparent decision comes amid
reports that the GSL might not have the requisite two-
thirds support needed in Parliament to pass the proposed
amendment to begin with. With a vote supposed to take
place in the next several weeks, the government does not
seem to have rallied enough support from other parties
to win. In fact, the government's campaign for the
proposed amendment seems to be running out of steam as a
possible vote draws nearer.

4. (C) Breaking down the numbers, Jehan Perera, the
director of a well-known think-tank, told us that the
government can only count on about 130 of the 150 MPs it
needs in the 225-member Parliament. The governing
United National Party (UNP) is having trouble luring
members of President Kumaratunga's People's Alliance
(PA) party to its side, despite its initial success in
siphoning off a handful of PA MPs. In addition, he
related, the UNP is even having trouble holding onto
members of its own coalition, such as MPs from the Sri
Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC). (Note: Several SLMC MPs
are clearly frustrated with the GSL over the peace
process, especially the involvement of SLMC leader Rauf
Hakeem in the peace effort, and are playing hard to
get.) In a sign of its success on the peace process
front, however, the UNP can count on the support of the
16 MPs of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA),Perera
noted.

==========================
Mulling Over Other Options
==========================


5. (C) A New Election?: With its plans for the
proposed amendment in real disarray, the GSL is
reportedly mulling over the idea of calling a new
election or maybe going for impeachment. Milinda
Moragoda, a key minister and close adviser to the prime
minister, told us that he tentatively favored the idea
of calling a new election. In his estimation, given the
popularity of the peace process, the UNP could count on
picking up a good number of seats if an election is held
soon. Simultaneously, the PA could expect to lose quite
a few seats, while the UNP's ally, the TNA, picked up
seats. He elaborated on two crucial problems with this
option. First, most UNP MPs were not very enthusiastic
about entering into what could be an unpredictable
election process. Second, it was not clear
constitutionally whether the PM and the governing
coalition could call election on their own volition or
whether they needed the approval of the president.
(Note: Although there is plenty of ambiguity, a reading
of the constitution tends to indicate that only the
president has the power to call an election and
Kumaratunga has indicated that she has no plans to do so
-- See more on this issue below in para seven.) (Note:
Ref A FBIS report indicates that the cabinet has
formally decided to go for a new election. Best that we
can figure, the report is not accurate.)


6. (C) Inpeaching the President?: Another option
involves the impeachment route. Moragoda noted that
there are a number of UNP MPs who want to move forward
with a long-standing plan to impeach Kumaratunga on
abuse of power and other charges. The supporters of
this course are vocal and influential in the UNP.
Moragoda remarked, however, that they do not have the
ear of the PM, who is reluctant to go down this track
because it would lead to distractions that would
probably get in the way of GSL initiatives, including
the peace process.

=================================
Presidential Assistant's Reaction
=================================


7. (C) The president's office clearly is not unhappy
over the government's conundrum on what to do. In a
meeting with PAO and polchief, Harim Peiris, a
presidential media adviser, appeared quite satisfied
regarding what he had heard about the Supreme Court's
apparent decision. He remarked that the court was only
taking the position that the president's office had held
since the proposal was first made. Asked about possible
next steps by the government, Peiris speculated that it
probably would not go for impeachment, which was too
messy. As for a new election, Peiris was clear that he
thought that only the president had the ultimate power
to make that decision and she had publicly stated that
she had no intention of doing so. It was also possible,
Peiris allowed, that the government might rewrite its
proposed amendment, framing it to pass the court's
muster. All in all, Peiris thought that cohabitation
would muddle along, with no great shifts. He stressed
that the cohabitation situation would be greatly
improved if Prime Minister Wickremesinghe would order
all members of his cabinet to quit what Peiris termed
"harsh attacks" on the president, who only wanted to be
"treated like a lady."

=======
COMMENT
=======


8. (C) The smoke has not yet cleared on this situation.
Indeed, although there clearly has been a leak, the
Supreme Court's decision has not yet been formally
announced and it is possible that initial reports on its
contents may be inaccurate. All that said, it does seem
that the government has suffered a setback in its
efforts to marginalize the president. President
Kumaratunga has played a weak hand very well and seems
to have put the government on the defensive for the
moment. It is possible that this will unnerve the GSL
and make it press harder against her, perhaps by
precipitating a potential constitutional crisis over who
has the power to call a new election. At the same time,
it is possible that the government may take the opposite
tack and decide to try harder to work with her. In
fact, the GSL may be leaning in this direction already
per its recent decision to engage the president in
"joint" meetings on peace process and national security
issues (see Reftels). If the government chooses this
latter option and does not to hit the panic button, the
present convoluted situation might lead to improved
cohabitation ties, not worse. END COMMENT.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS