LTTE pressure, cohabitation stresses, and

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001835

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-02-12
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PINR MOPS PHUM CE LTTE
SUBJECT: LTTE pressure, cohabitation stresses, and
friction with police act to demoralize military

Refs: (A) Colombo 1815

- (B) Colombo 1790, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. Reasons
1.5 (b, d).


1. (S) Summary: The Sri Lankan military is in a
difficult period. According to sources, a number of
factors are acting to demoralize the military, including
pressure from the Tamil Tigers, stresses in the
relationship between the PM and the President, and
frictions with the police. The military as a whole
appears to support the peace process, but there are some
reports of dissension. Caught in a transition period
between war and possible peace, the military is clearly
troubled and needs careful tending by the GSL. End
Summary.

=================================
Difficult Period for the Military
=================================


2. (S) There are increasing reports indicating that the
Sri Lankan military is in a difficult period. Hardly a
day goes by without the press reporting some sort of
flare-up involving the armed forces. Many of these
reports pit the military against the Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in some small incident or paint
members of the military engaged in infighting with one
another. Commenting on the rash of reports, Jehan
Perera, the Director of the National Peace Council, a
local think-tank, told polchief October 1 that he
thought the military was in a "very confused state
because it was caught in a transition period between war
and possible peace." He noted that the military used to
be focused on all-out confrontation versus the LTTE.
With the ceasefire in effect, however the military does
not have a "central objective" at this time and is "a
bit lost."

=====================
Pinpricks by the LTTE
=====================


3. (S) An analysis of the latest reports indicates that
several factors seem to be acting to demoralize the
military, including pressure from the Tamil Tigers,
stresses in the relationship between the PM and the
President, and frictions with the police. With respect
to the first factor, the LTTE seems to be engaged in a
strategy of engaging the military in small pinprick-type
actions that fall well short of war, but are meant to
harass and preoccupy.


4. (S) One of the more serious of these problematic
incidents involves the ongoing detention of seven Sri
Lankan soldiers held by the LTTE since September 25 (see
Ref A). The LTTE has demanded the release of two of its
cadre in exchange for the release of the soldiers.
Based on what we are hearing, the GSL -- not wanting the
incident to become a crisis -- is squirming to find a
way to release the LTTE cadre. (Note: Milinda
Moragoda, an important minister, told DCM, October 2,
that the GSL is "leaning" on the judicial system to
speed up the processing of the two LTTE detainees so
that they can be eligible for bail as soon as possible.)
In the meantime, the military is helpless to do
anything. Brigadier Peiris, the Director of Legal
Affairs at Army Headquarters, told us that the incident
was shameful to the military, especially given the fact
that families of the soldiers have been publicly
demonstrating for their release, but to no avail.


5. (S) Another incident that has disturbed the military
was the attempted overrunning of a military post located
in the town of Point Pedro in Jaffna on September 2.
During this incident, a large group of Tamil grade
school students attacked the post, damaging a number of
bunkers and other military positions before being driven
back. Several people were injured in the attack, which
was apparently instigated by the LTTE. In discussions
with Mission, military officers report dozens of smaller
but similar incidents involving troops who were
physically or verbally harassed by LTTE cadre or pro-
LTTE Tamils in various demeaning ways. Again, due to
the ceasefire, the military has not been able to do much
to counter the LTTE and prevent such incidents.

=====================
Cohabitation Stresses
=====================


6. (S) Stresses in the cohabitation relationship
between the Prime Minister and President Kumaratunga
also seem to be playing a role in the military's
troubles. Essentially, the deep tensions between the PM
and the President are creating an unstable situation for
the military in that it is not quite certain who it is
that it reports to.


7. (S) The crux of the confusion comes from the fact
that the PM is clearly politically the most powerful
person in the country at this time, while Kumaratunga
technically remains commander-in-chief of the armed
forces under the terms of the Sri Lankan Constitution.
Caught in this ambiguity, the military in effect is
being forced to choose which side's strategic vision to
support, i.e., the PM's peace initiative or the
president's more skeptical approach. (Note: Milinda
Moragoda told us that he was so worried about the
"politicization" of peace issues that on October 1 he
had urged former Foreign Minister Kadirgamar, a key
presidential adviser, to ensure that the president and
her supporters acted in a more bipartisan fashion.)


8. (S) Meanwhile, the stresses between the PM and the
president are also being played out in the area of
personnel. The president, for example, recently
extended the Army and Navy commanders' terms of office
without consultation with the GSL. We have heard that
the president's actions, though legal, have been seen as
interference by many in the military, who see her as
rewarding officers she sees as her allies, while
retarding the careers of others who are not.
(Note: This has helped spark some infighting in the
military. The Naval commander, for example, has accused
his own chief of staff of spying on him, claiming that
the latter is angry over the extension. Adding to this
confusion is the fact that the Naval commander is known
to be pro-president, while the chief of staff is thought
to be close to the PM. End Note.)

========================
Friction with the Police
========================


9. (S) Another problematic area for the military
involves its reported tensions with the police. Milinda
Moragoda told DCM that the relationship between the
police and the military is a tricky one. Moragoda
explained that the genesis of the problem was the
perception by some in the police that the military took
advantage of the situation when the police were within
the Ministry of Defense. With responsibility for the
police placed back in the Ministry of Interior upon the
installation of the new government in December 2001,
Moragoda related that the police have become more
confident in challenging military authority.

10. (S) An example of police/military tensions coming
to a head was a police raid on a military facility in
January 2002. In this incident, the police, acting on a
tip (apparently from someone in the military itself),
raided a safe house kept by military intelligence,
arrested six soldiers, and seized arms and ammunition.
The raid infuriated the military because the safe house
was being used by members of a top secret anti-LTTE deep
penetration unit that had its cover blown in the widely
publicized raid. Although the soldiers have since been
released, it is still possible that a legal case against
them may be pursued by the Attorney General's Office.
Moragoda said the Director General of Military
Intelligence (DGMI) also remained worried that he might
be prosecuted in the matter, and, in fact, has had
charges filed against him for allegedly plotting against
the Prime Minister. (Note: These charges have not yet
been publicly announced and we could not confirm them.
Moragoda told us that the PM does not believe the charge
and was chagrined when he found out that the police had
filed these charges without checking with him, the
Minister of Interior or the Minister of Defense.)

============================================= =
Most in Military said to support Peace Process
============================================= =


11. (S) Despite its many problems, the military as a
whole appears to support the peace process. The Sri
Lankan military has a long history of acquiescence to
civilian authority and there is little indication of
widespread objections to the government's peace moves
within the force. Jehan Perera, for example, told us
that he saw few signs that the military was seriously
angry with the government over its peace initiative,
although it was not happy to have been effectively
sidelined due to the initiative's success. There were
stresses, he noted, such as those over incidents with
the LTTE (as described above),but he did not think the
GSL and the military were headed toward any sort of
break.


12. (S) That said, recent reports indicate that there
may be some dissension. Per Ref B, for example, Nimal
Goonetilleke (please protect),the head of the Police
Special Task Force (STF),told RSO that he had heard
that five or six high-ranking military officers (NFI)
were actively speaking out against the peace process
within their respective commands. He speculated that
some of these officers might be angry because the peace
process was beginning to undermine illicit activities
they were engaged in. He had no information that anyone
in the military was planning to take any sort of action
against the GSL, however. In addition to Goonetilleke's
report, a Sinhala-language weekly called "Lakjana"
alleged in a September 29 article that a group of high-
level brass in the Army was planning a coup in
consultation with the president. The article did not
provide any additional details or proof of its
assertions, but it was the first press report of its
kind that Mission has seen.

=======
Comment
=======


13. (S) The military is clearly in a difficult
position. It feels increasingly marginalized by the
peace process, especially against the backdrop of the
central role it used to play in national affairs during
the wartime conflict. The pressure it is facing from
the LTTE and from working within a confusing
cohabitation system is clearly demoralizing, if not
potentially debilitating.


14. (S) Given this situation, the military needs
careful tending by the GSL. While it seems in no mood
to challenge the direction of the peace process, the
government needs to work with the military carefully to
ensure that it remains fully on board. Although
obscured by the war, many of the military's problems
also have deep roots, which will take a serious
commitment to reform to fix. One way the GSL is trying
to assuage the military -- and nudge it toward reform --
is to underscore that the international community stands
ready to assist it with advice, training, and material
support. If the government fails in the delicate task
of making the military more comfortable with its
newfound situation, there is a possibility that it could
become a wildcard element that potentially could be
taken advantage of by hard-line political elements.


15. (S) Just back from R+R, the Ambassador has requested
appointments with each of the service chiefs to gauge
the military leadership's frame of mind. End Comment.


16. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS