Reviewing recent talks, Muslim leader says he is

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001778

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD

NEW DELHI PLS PASS TO AMBASSADOR WILLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09-24-12
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PINR CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Reviewing recent talks, Muslim leader says he is
"cautiously optimistic" about state of peace process

Refs: (A) Bangkok 6663, and previous

- (B) Colombo 1751, and previous

(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Charge d'Affaires.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: Charge met September 24 with Rauf Hakeem,
the Muslim leader who was a member of the GSL's team at the
recent talks with the Tamil Tigers. Hakeem remarked on the
positive atmospherics of the talks, noting that he was now
"cautiously optimistic" about the peace process. Mulling
over possible long-term power-sharing modalities, he
planned to meet soon with Tiger leader Prabhakaran in order
to press for "guarantees" for Muslims. Hakeem seems
comfortable with the current situation, which indicates
that the volatile Muslim angle is being managed well by the
GSL and Tigers, so far. End Summary.

=========================================
Muslim Leader Positive about recent Talks
=========================================


2. (C) Charge met Rauf Hakeem, the leader of the Sri Lanka
Muslim Congress (SLMC),and GSL Minister for Ports and
Shipping, on September 24. Hakeem, who was a member of the
GSL's delegation at the recent talks with the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),remarked on the positive
atmospherics of the talks (see Reftels). There were
productive discussions on many issues, he noted, with the
LTTE side focused on issues related to assistance to the
north and east. Hakeem said he found chief LTTE negotiator
Anton Balasingham "quite impressive." Balasingham's
health, however, did not seem particularly good, and he
could not sit down and negotiate for long stretches at a
time. (Note: Balasingham has a serious kidney condition.)

V. Rudrakumar, another member of the LTTE team, was also
active during the talks, especially on legal and
constitutional issues.


3. (C) Queried about the closing press conference, Hakeem
replied that Balasingham's remarks edging away from
separatism were positive, as were his comments about
Muslims, in general. That said, the LTTE had to do more
than say nice words that could have "shifting meanings."
It was imperative that the group take "concrete steps to
protect Muslims." Overall, Hakeem allowed that he was now
"cautiously optimistic" about the state of the peace
process after the talks, but underscored that more progress
needed to be made.

===============================
Next Step: Meeting Prabhakaran
===============================


4. (C) Hakeem's next step was his upcoming meeting with
LTTE leader V. Prabhakaran in the LTTE-controlled Wanni
region in northern Sri Lanka. This meeting was crucial, he
averred. It was fine to meet with Balasingham and other
LTTE representatives, but Prabhakaran was the key figure in
the organization and known to be "in total control."
Hakeem said he would use this meeting to press Prabhakaran
to lend substance to the LTTE's public commitment to
protect the rights of Muslims in the north and east. In
doing this, the discussions would delve into the details of
a possible final settlement (see more below). It was
important that progress be made in this meeting, Hakeem
noted, so that he had something to take back to the Muslim
community, especially those in the ethnically mixed and
volatile east. (Note: The slated meeting with Prabhakaran
would be Hakeem's second this year. He met Prabhakaran in
April, and the two announced several "understandings" re
Muslim rights in the north and east. Muslims as a rule
feel the LTTE did not live up to these understandings.)

==========================
Mulling over the Long-term
==========================

5. (C) When asked, Hakeem mulled over possible long-term
power-sharing arrangements for the north and east. He
noted that his thinking on this issue was in the formative
stages and he still sought "imaginative" ideas on ways to
handle the Muslim situation. At this point, however, he
was leaning toward the idea that Muslim representatives
would serve with Tamils in a provincial council for the
north and east based in Trincomalee. The chief
minister of the north and east would probably be a Tamil
and the deputy a Muslim. Because Tamils (i.e., the LTTE)
were bound to dominate such a structure, however, it was
important that Muslims receive "additional guarantees."
While Muslims would not demand their own province, it was
important that power in the north and east devolve to the
local level to a large extent. This would allow Muslim
communities interspersed throughout the region the ability
to govern their own affairs to a large extent. Finally,
the LTTE had to formally accept that there could be no re-
distribution of populations. (Note: Some in LTTE and
Tamil ranks see re-distribution as a good way to diminish
Muslim influence in the north and east.)


6. (C) In drawing this tentative description of a possible
settlement, Hakeem underscored that he rejected the notion
that there would be an "interim" followed by a "final"
settlement. He claimed that the idea of such a staggered
accord was pushed most often by the LTTE as a way to cloak
its desire for an eventual separate status for Tamils.
Coming back to a thread he had mentioned earlier, Hakeem
again underlined that it was important that GSL negotiators
continue to press the LTTE to clearly define its terms.
The group always carefully chose its words, but these words
upon subsequent review often did not mean what they
initially seemed.

=======
Comment
=======


7. (C) Hakeem seems relatively comfortable with the
current situation. This is in marked contrast to his
agitated state during the summer months, when Tamils and
Muslims in the east were at each other's throats. The fact
that Hakeem seems somewhat confident indicates that the
complex Muslim angle is being managed well by the GSL and
Tigers, so far. Clearly, the fact that the GSL has let
Hakeem join its team for the talks has been a source of
encouragement for Muslims. In addition, Hakeem seems to be
hearing the right sounds from the LTTE at this point re the
group's commitment to Muslim rights in the east. For
progress to continue, it is important that Prabhakaran work
hard during the upcoming meeting in the Wanni to give
Hakeem the ironclad guarantees he needs to take back to the
Muslim community. Hakeem still is not sure that the LTTE
is there yet. End Comment.


8. (U) Minimize considered.

AMSELEM