President meeting with JVP leads to much

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001541

SIPDIS

FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/21/12
TAGS: PGOV CE
SUBJECT: President meeting with JVP leads to much
speculation; most observers see no lasting PA-JVP pact

Ref: Colombo 1450

(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. Reasons
1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: The President recently met with the JVP
in what many saw as a move to thwart the UNF peace
initiatives. PA representatives and other observers
state the meetings between the President and JVP were
simply a show of strength. The upcoming no confidence
vote against a UNF Minister might be the first test of
that strength. End Summary.


2. (U) On August 9, President Kumaratunga met with the
leader of the radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)
Tilvin Silva. The meeting elicited strong responses
from Tamil politicians who described the talks as a
threat to the peace process. MP G.G. Ponnambalam of the
Tamil National Alliance (TNA) stated that her meeting
with the JVP proves that when the President "talks of
building a pluralistic society it is merely lip
service." According to him, working with the Sinhala-
nationalist JVP shows that the President has no
credibility. MP T. Thangavadivel summarized the TNA
response when he said the PA and JVP working together is
a "rotten alliance."


3. (U) Presidential Spokesman Harim Peiris countered by
describing the meeting, and subsequent discussions, as
simple political posturing in hopes of staving off
possible snap elections (see Reftel). He asserted that
the PA had no desire to coordinate policy with the JVP.
A secondary reason for the meeting, he asserted, was to
show the United National Front (UNF) that the President
would not accede to their demands on a range of issues
without a fight.


4. (C) Some political observers believe any agreement
between the JVP and PA can only be of a limited nature,
because of the adverse effects any such alliance would
have within and on the PA. Kingsley Rodrigo, Executive
Director of PAFFREL, a NGO promoting democratic reform,
stated that a true alliance between Kumaratunga and
Silva would result in a number of PA MPs' abandoning
their party. Kethesh Loganathan of the Center for
Policy Alternatives (CPA) believes that any joint
efforts by the JVP and PA will be only for election
purposes: too many people in the party do not trust the
JVP. Loganathan emphasized that the single largest
reason for the unwillingness of many PA MPs to work with
JVP is that the electorate wants peace and the JVP has
taken a strong anti-peace process stance.


5. (C) Referring to a possible alliance between the PA
and JVP, General Secretary of the UNF Senarath
Kapukotuwa claimed that the first test of any such
relationship would be the PA-sponsored no confidence
bill against Minister of Interior John Amaratunge.
Kapukotuwa claimed that the Kumaratunga meeting with
Silva was an attempt to show strength, but the
reluctance of some PA members to speak against
Amaratunge is the true indicator of the PA's weakness.
Observers such as Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, Executive
Director of the CPA, agreed with the assessment that the
events leading up to the vote on the no-confidence bill
will give some indication of the strength of each side
going into the debate over a constitutional amendment
designed to limit the President's powers.

Wills