PM ON COHABITATION: "NOT LOOKING GOOD"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001491

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL; NSC FOR

E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2012
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR PREL PARM CE NO
SUBJECT: PM ON COHABITATION: "NOT LOOKING GOOD"


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR E. ASHLEY WILLS. REASONS 1.5 B
, D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: PM WICKREMISINGHE TOLD ME LAST NIGHT
(AUGUST 13) THAT COHABITATION TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH AND THAT
PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVEMENT ARE "NOT LOOKING GOOD". HE
PROFESSED TO BE SERIOUSLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE PRESIDENT'S
MENTAL BALANCE. WHEN TOLD THAT SHE WILL BE COMING TO
JEFFERSON HOUSE TONIGHT FOR DINNER, HE ASKED ME TO CALL HIM
AFTERWARDS TO GIVE HIM MY OPINION OF HER FRAME OF MIND. I
SAID I WOULD DO SO. IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, SEVERAL VIP'S IN
GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT ONLY WE CAN
BROKER A DEAL BETWEEN THE PM AND PRESIDENT, AN IDEA I HAVE
RESOLUTELY DISMISSED. END SUMMARY.

COHABITATION
--------------


2. (C) AT MINISTER GL PEIRIS'S 56TH BIRTHDAY PARTY LAST
NIGHT (AUGUST 13),I HAD A FIVE-MINUTE CONVERSATION WITH PM
WICKREMISINGHE. IN RESPONSE TO MY QUESTION, HE SAID
COHABITATION WAS NOT GOING WELL AND THAT THE PROSPECTS ARE
"NOT LOOKING GOOD". HE STRESSED TWICE THAT HE IS READY TO
TRY TO MAKE IT WORK BUT DOUBTS CBK FEELS RECIPROCALLY. HE
CONFIRMED THAT FORMER FM KADIRGAMAR HAS BEEN TRYING TO BROKER
A DEAL BETWEEN HIM AND THE PRESIDENT BUT WITHOUT SUCCESS.
KADIRGAMAR TOLD HIM FRIDAY THAT HE WOULD ARRANGE A
FACE-TO-FACE MEETING BETWEEN THE TWO PRINCIPALS BUT HAD SO
FAR FAILED TO DO SO. HE HAD CHECKED WITH KADIRGAMAR TWICE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN YESTERDAY AND LEARNED THAT HE
(KADIRGAMAR) HAD NOT EVEN BEEN ABLE TO TALK TO HER YET. SHE
HAS NOT RETURNED EVEN HER FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER'S CALLS.


3. (C) THE PM PROFESSED TO BE SERIOUSLY WORRIED ABOUT HER
MENTAL BALANCE. AMONG OTHER REASONS FOR HIS WORRY IN THIS
REGARD, HE ASSESSED THAT HER FLIRTING WITH THE MAOIST JVP,
WIDELY REPORTED IN THE LOCAL MEDIA IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, NOT
ONLY WENT AGAINST THE NATION'S INTEREST BUT HER OWN PARTY'S
AS WELL. (WE AGREE). GL PEIRIS, WHO WAS STANDING WITH US,
THEN MENTIONED THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL BE COMING TO DINNER
TONIGHT AT JEFFERSON HOUSE. THE PM BRIGHTENED. HE ASKED
WHOM ELSE I HAD INVITED (I TOLD HIM CBK HAD INFORMED ME THAT
I SHOULD INVITE HER BROTHER, HER SISTER AND HER SON, A
20-YEAR OLD VET STUDENT IN THE UK; MY WIFE AND 20-YEAR OLD
DAUGHTER, WHO WRONGLY SUSPECTS A MATCHMAKING ATTEMPT ON HER
FATHER'S OR THE PRESIDENT'S PART, AND EMMA -- MY NON-GOLDEN,
NON-RETRIEVER -- WILL JOIN ME ON THE US SIDE, AGAIN A
PRESIDENTIAL STIPULATION). HE THEN ASKED WHETHER I WOULD
CALL HIM AFTER THE DINNER OR TOMORROW WITH MY ASSESSMENT OF
HER MOOD. I SAID I WOULD.


4. (C) AS THE CONVERSATION ENDED, THE PM AND PEIRIS
EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE THAT WHETHER OR NOT THE PRESIDENT GOES
ALONG, THE GOVERNMENT NOW BELIEVES IT HAS ENOUGH VOTES TO
PASS A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT LIMITING HER POWERS TO
DISMISS PARLIAMENT. THIS HAS BEEN THE KEY ISSUE IN
COHABITATION FOR THE UNF BECAUSE IT FEARS CBK WILL PROROGUE
PARLIAMENT AT HER EARLIEST CONVENIENCE SOMETIME AFTER
DECEMBER 6. THAT DATE CONSTITUTES THE ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY
OF THE SITTING OF THIS PARLIAMENT; ACCORDING TO THE SRI
LANKAN CONSTITUTION, THE PRESIDENT CAN DISMISS PARLIAMENT
AFTER IT HAS SAT ONE YEAR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE PM, HIS
CABINET OR A MAJORITY OF MP'S WOULD AGREE. FOR THE SAKE OF
HIS GOVERNMENT'S STABILITY AND LONGEVITY, RANIL WANTS EITHER
TO GET HER WRITTEN, SIGNED COMMITMENT NOT TO EXERCISE THIS
POWER FOR A CERTAIN PERIOD OR TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION TO
ELIMINATE HER ABILITY IN THIS AREA EXCEPT IN VERY SPECIAL
CIRCUMSTANCES. OR BOTH. THE MEDIA THIS MORNING ALSO REPORT
THAT THE GOVERNMENT FEELS THAT IT HAS THE VOTES TO PASS THE
AMENDMENT (A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY WOULD BE NEEDED TO PASS IT
SO THERE WILL HAVE TO BE ROUGHLY 20 DEFECTIONS FROM CBK'S PA
TO REACH THE MAGIC FIGURE OF 150
VOTES).

US ROLE? NO WAY
--------------


5. (C) OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, WE HAVE HEARD FROM SEVERAL
IMPORTANT FIGURES IN GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS THAT A US ROLE
WILL IN THE END BE NECESSARY TO BROKER A DEAL BETWEEN RANIL
AND CHANDRIKA. SUCH IS THE EXASPERATION PEOPLE FEEL WITH
COHABITATION TENSIONS WHEN THE NATION'S FUTURE IS AT STAKE,
SUCH IS A CERTAIN CULTURAL INCLINATION TO LOOK TO OTHERS TO
SOLVE SRI LANKA'S PROBLEMS, AND SUCH IS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
US THAT THIS IDEA HAS ACQUIRED TOO MUCH CURRENCY. TWO UNF
MINISTERS, AN EDITOR AND SEVERAL BUSINESS EXECUTIVES
APPROACHED ME LAST NIGHT ALONG THESE LINES. I RESOLUTELY
DISMISSED THE IDEA. MY LINE IS THAT THIS MAY CONSTITUTE A
"DAMNED IF WE DO, DAMNED IF WE DON'T" SITUATION, AND IF SO WE
PREFER TO BE DAMNED FOR NOT BUTTING IN TO THAT EXTENT. IT
WOULD BE INTERVENTIONIST, I SAY, AND IT WOULD LEAD
INEVITABLY TO OUR BROKERING EVERY TIME DISAGREEMENTS ERUPT.
BESIDES, I POINT OUT, A DEAL, IF ONE IS TO BE DONE, MUST
ARISE ORGANICALLY FROM THE PRINCIPALS IF IT IS TO LAST. I
NEVERTHELESS REPORT THE FOREGOING BECAUSE IT SHOWS THE
FRUSTRATION AND EVEN DESPERATION MANY PEOPLE FEEL.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) I WILL CALL KADIRGAMAR TODAY TO GET HIS VIEW. I MUST
SAY I FACE TONIGHT'S DINNER WITH TREPIDATION. THE PRESIDENT
COULD WELL BE IN A BAD MOOD. AND HER BRAT BROTHER ANURA HAS
BEEN MAKING VERY IRRESPONSIBLE STATEMENTS LATELY, INCLUDING
ONE IN WHICH HE ACCUSED PRESIDENT BUSH OF HAVING "STOLEN"
2000'S ELECTION. I PREDICT MY SELF-CONTROL WILL BE TESTED.
SO WILL EMMA'S. SHE SNIFFS OUT INSINCERITY IN A JIFFY. (CAN
DOGS BE NOMINATED FOR STATE DEPARTMENT AWARDS?)
Wills