LEBANESE INTERIOR MINISTER BANS OCTOBER 31

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003470

D FOR BARRY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2012
TAGS: PGOV PHUM LE
SUBJECT: LEBANESE INTERIOR MINISTER BANS OCTOBER 31
DEMONSTRATIONS

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR VINCENT M. BATTLE; REASONS 1.5 (B),(D).


1. (U) SUMMARY: INTERIOR MINISTER ELIAS MURR ANNOUNCED ON
OCTOBER 30 THAT HE WOULD NOT GRANT PERMISSION TO OPPOSITION
GROUP QORNET SHEHWAN'S (QS) "PRO-FREEDOM" PROTEST OR TO THE
COUNTER-DEMONSTRATION PROPOSED BY THE PRO-SYRIAN ISLAMIC
GATHERING, BOTH SCHEDULED FOR OCTOBER 31. QS MEMBERS QUICKLY
RESPONDED BY CANCELING THEIR DEMONSTRATION, WHILE THE AOUNIST
FREE PATRIOTIC MOVEMENT VOWED TO CARRY ON WITH ITS PLANS TO
DEMONSTRATE DESPITE THE BAN. MURR SAID HIS DECISION WAS
BASED ON THE NEED TO MAINTAIN CIVIL PEACE DUE TO THE
"REGIONAL SITUATION" AND TO ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF PARIS II.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) IN A MOVE AGAINST THE OPPOSITION, INTERIOR MINISTER
ELIAS MURR DECIDED ON OCTOBER 30 TO BAN ALL OCTOBER 31
DEMONSTRATIONS, INCLUDING QS'S DEMONSTRATION, THE ISLAMIC
GATHERING'S COUNTER-DEMONSTRATION AND ALL OTHER SCHEDULED FOR
THIS DATE. MURR JUSTIFIED HIS DECISION ON THE BASIS OF
MAINTAINING CIVIL STABILITY AT A TIME WHEN THE REGIONAL
SITUATION IS VOLATILE AND IN ORDER TO ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF
THE UPCOMING PARIS II INTERNATIONAL DONOR'S CONFERENCE.
DESPITE REPORTED DISAGREEMENT WITHIN QS ON WHETHER TO GO
AHEAD WITH THE DEMONSTRATION, QS ACTED QUICKLY TO CANCEL THE
DEMONSTRATION AND AVOID ARRESTS. (COMMENT: THE DECISION TO
CANCEL THE QS DEMONSTRATION ONCE THE GOL DENIED PERMISSION TO
PROTEST WAS ALMOST GUARANTEED. QS LEADERS ARE ALREADY
NERVOUS ABOUT THE ONGOING INVESTIGATIONS OF OPPOSITION
MEMBERS FOR "CONTACT WITH THE ISRAELI ENEMY" AND WERE NOT
LIKELY TO PUT THEMSELVES IN THE LINE OF FIRE OF THE INTERNAL
SECURITY FORCES (ISF). END COMMENT.)


3. (C) THE FREE PATRIOTIC MOVEMENT, COMPRISED OF SUPPORTERS
OF EXILE GENERAL MICHEL AOUN, LIVED UP TO ITS PROMISE TO
DEMONSTRATE DESPITE THE BAN. APPROXIMATELY 300 PEOPLE
DEMONSTRATED WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE INFORMATION
UNIVERSITY CAMPUS IN FANAR, A VILLAGE NEAR BEIRUT, THE
AFTERNOON OF OCTOBER 31. FOLLOWING THE DEMONSTRATIONS,
PROTESTERS ATTEMPTED TO CONGREGATE IN THE STREETS BUT WERE
STOPPED BY THE ISF. RSO SOURCES REPORT THAT ROCKS AND OTHER
OBJECTS WERE THROWN AT POLICE BUT AS YET WE HAVE NO
INFORMATION ABOUT ANY ARRESTS. NO OTHER DEMONSTRATIONS
OCCURRED.


4. (C) COMMENT. THE SAGA, WHICH BEGAN WITH THE CONTESTED
METN ELECTIONS, FOLLOWED BY THE MARONITE CONFERENCE IN LOS
ANGELES, THE CLOSURE OF MTV, AND THE DISINTEGRATION OF
ATTEMPTED RAPPROCHEMENT BETWEEN PRESIDENT LAHOUD AND THE QS,
CONTINUES UNABATED. WHAT MANY BELIEVE STARTED AS A FAMILY
FEUD HAS ENGAGED THE ENTIRE NATION AND LED TO A RISE IN
SECTARIAN TENSIONS. MURR'S JUSTIFICATION ON THE GROUNDS OF
REGIONAL INSTABILITY AND PARIS II IS THIN AND MORE
OPPORTUNITIES REMAIN FOR THE ISSUE TO COME TO A HEAD. THE QS
WILL MEET NOVEMBER 7 TO DECIDE ITS NEXT MOVE. IN THE
MEANTIME, MTV LAWYERS HAVE MADE ANOTHER APPEAL OF THE
STATION'S PERMANENT CLOSURE. END COMMENT.


BATTLE