Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ANKARA9071
2002-12-20 13:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

SEZER VETO CALLS SIIRT ELECTIONS INTO QUESTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON TU 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 009071 

SIPDIS


CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLADS AND J-5


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TU
SUBJECT: SEZER VETO CALLS SIIRT ELECTIONS INTO QUESTION


Classified by acting Politcal Counselor Nicholas S. Kass.
Reason: 1.5(b)(d)


C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 009071

SIPDIS


CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLADS AND J-5


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TU
SUBJECT: SEZER VETO CALLS SIIRT ELECTIONS INTO QUESTION


Classified by acting Politcal Counselor Nicholas S. Kass.
Reason: 1.5(b)(d)



1. (C) President Sezer's Dec. 19 veto of a constitutional
amendment package, which is designed to reinstate AK Leader
Erdogan's political rights and clear the way for his entry
into government (septel),calls into question the date for
the "new" elections in Siirt Province and Erdogan's immediate
political future.



2. (C) Pursuant to a petition by AK, the Nov. 3 national
election results in Siirt had been invalidated Dec. 9 by the
Supreme Election Board (YSK),due to local electioneering
shenaningans. AK had seen Siirt as an opportunity to elect
Erdogan to the Parliament, from where he could formally
assume the duties of Prime Minister.



3. (C) Now, however, whether Erdogan would stand for
elections in Siirt is an open question, made more complex by
both the veto and the evolving political situation on the
ground there.


-- Given the uncertainty surrounding the constitutional
amendment package, the YSK never officially announced an
election date and calendar, though the virtual effect of its
Dec. 9 decision to invalidate the Siirt results was to
establish a Feb. 9 date.


-- The constitutional package includes a provision that would
have pushed the Siirt poll back to March 9. By late
February, Erdogan's 3-year ban from "active" politics will
have run its course, allowing him to appeal for reinstatement
of his legal rights: enacting the package would improve
Erdogan's prospects for success.


-- If a referendum on the vetoed package is called by Sezer,
its timing could be critical. The Siirt option could be
denied to Erdogan if the elections are held Feb. 9, without
the adoption of constitutional changes and while Erdogan's
ban still holds.


-- According to press, some polls are showing Siirt voters
are miffed that AK had the provincial election results
annulled. Moreover, several sources tell us CHP is trying to
cut a deal with the pro-Kurdish DEHAP (Democratic People's
Party),which is far and away the most popular party in the
province.



4. (C) AK is currently scouring the legal system for other
ways to get Erdogan into the legislature. According to
press, one possibility involves amending and expanding the
amnesty provisions in the Turkish Press Law. AK submitted a
draft to the TGNA President's Office Dec. 19, concerning the
law on "postponement of court cases and punishments related
to crimes committed through press and publications" (AKA Law
No. 4454).


-- AK's draft proposes that those who have been convicted,
and who have served their sentences, for crimes under Turkish
Penal Code Art. 312 should be treated as if they never
committed the crime in question -- provided that they do not
commit the same crime again before the amendment is formally
enacted. Erdogan was convicted and stripped of his political
rights under art. 312 (inciting religious/ethnic hatred) in

1999. Current law could be read to make him ineligible to
run for office even after his ban ends.


-- One Parliamentary expert expressed to us his doubts that
such a proposal would be workable absent constitutional
amendments. Given Sezer's veto of the constitutional package
on grounds that it was geared toward one person -- Erdogan --
we expect the President would oppose such a plan.
PEARSON