Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ANKARA8996
2002-12-17 05:30:00
SECRET
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

DEFMIN HOPES FOR DECISION ON IRAQ WITHIN DAYS

Tags:  MARR MOPS TU IZ 
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008996 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2012
TAGS: MARR MOPS TU IZ
SUBJECT: DEFMIN HOPES FOR DECISION ON IRAQ WITHIN DAYS


REF: SECDEF 122341 DEC 02


(U) Classified by Ambassador W. Robert Pearson, reasons 1.5,
b/d.


S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008996

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2012
TAGS: MARR MOPS TU IZ
SUBJECT: DEFMIN HOPES FOR DECISION ON IRAQ WITHIN DAYS


REF: SECDEF 122341 DEC 02


(U) Classified by Ambassador W. Robert Pearson, reasons 1.5,
b/d.



1. (S) Summary: In an introductory call on the new Minister
of National Defense Mehmet Vecdi Gonul December 16,
Ambassador emphasized the positive outcome of AK Party Leader
Erdogan's visit to Washington, the resolution of Turkey's
participation agreement with the EU on ESDP, progress on
Turkey's eventual accession to the EU, and the invitation for
Bulgaria and Romania to join NATO. Nevertheless he noted the
importance of Turkey's coming to a decision on whether to
support a military operation against Iraq if one becomes
necessary. Gonul praised the support of the US for Turkey's
EU candidacy and expressed appreciation for the warm
reception Erdogan received in Washington. He noted he had
passed notes on his conversation with USDP Feith (reftel) to
both PM Gul and Erdogan before they went to Copenhagen and he
hoped his leadership would make a decision on Iraq the
evening of December 16 and meet with Gonul December 17 upon
their return to Ankara. Gonul noted that the philosophy of
the decision had been made but the public and the parliament
needed to be prepared. He added that "this week would be
very important" comparing it to Turkey's decision regarding
entry into WWII and NATO membership. Gonul's aide ADM (L)
Can Erenoglu noted the ONW renewal was being processed
normally and did not foresee any problems. End Summary.



2. (S) The Ambassador called on Minister of National Defense
Gonul December 16 to congratulate him on his appointment. He
emphasized that, while the EU was not as forthcoming at
Copenhagen as we had hoped, the resolution of a participation
agreement with the EU on ESDP and AK Party Leader Erdogan's
visit to Washington had been extremely valuable. The
Ambassador noted that POTUS appreciated the opportunity to
establish a personal rapport with Erdogan. He explained that
Erdogan had been briefed on Iraqi WMD, US military plans and
the number of coalition partners that support the US with or
without a second UN resolution. It had been made clear to
Erdogan, however, that eventually the lack of a "yes" from
Turkey on Iraq would, for all intents and purposes, be a

"no." The US respects that Turkey has some serious decisions
to make, but we are running out of time.



3. (S) Gonul began by expressing appreciation for US support
for Turkey's EU accession aspirations and for Erdogan's warm
reception in Washington, despite his not being the prime
minister of Turkey. He emphasized the difficulties of making
such an important decision on Iraq, akin to Turkey's
decisions on entering WWII or joining NATO, when virtually
every parliamentarian was new. Gonul added that Iraq had not
been discussed during the campaign in Turkey and, therefore,
the government needed "to get the Turkish public and the
parliament behind us." He said the "philosophical background
of the decision had already been made" but the public needed
to be prepared. After his very fruitful discussions with
USDP Feith in Rome on the margins of the SEDM, Gonul had
passed 2-3 pages of notes to Erdogan and PM Gul at the
airport on their way to Copenhagen. He hoped his leadership
would make a decision on Iraq the evening of December 16 and
meet with Gonul December 17 when they got back to Ankara. He
expressed optimism about a decision on Iraq and said this
week would be "very important."



4. (C) The Ambassador thanked Gonul for the encouraging news
and reminded him that the Embassy had submitted its request
to renew Operation Northern Watch's presence in Turkey for
another six months. Gonul's aide ADM(L) Erenogul assured the
Ambassador the request was being processed normally. He said
the PM or FM would likely speak on the issue and evinced no
hint that he expected any problems with the renewal in
parliament. The Ambassador asked to be kept informed of its
progress and underlined that the ONW renewal should be kept
separated from larger issues on Iraq.



5. (C) Regarding the outcome of the Copenhagen Summit, Gonul
said Turkey would have preferred a better outcome but at
least the country has a concrete goal that he hoped would
motivate the population. Gonul acknowledged that the US
supported Turkey's candidacy although Turkey's membership
would probably disadvantage the US in the short term. The
Ambassador underlined that our support for Turkey's
membership was a strategic, vice tactical, interest.



6. (C) Comment: While traditionally the MND is somewhat
marginalized on most security issues except procurement,
Gonul was clearly focused on the larger policy issues facing
Turkey such as Iraq and EU membership. He was not well
briefed on specific procurement programs to which the
previous MND was strictly confined. Nevertheless, his
experience in government, his ability to grasp issues
quickly, and AK's interest in redressing the current
imbalance in civilian-military relations may over time
increase the role of MND in Turkey's policy-making apparatus.
PEARSON