Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ANKARA8994
2002-12-16 16:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY: CONTROVERSIAL MEHMET AGAR REPLACES TANSU

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINS TU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008994 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CONTROVERSIAL MEHMET AGAR REPLACES TANSU
CILLER AT HELM OF CENTER-RIGHT DYP

REF: ANKARA 2431


Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. Reason:
1.5 (b,d)


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008994

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CONTROVERSIAL MEHMET AGAR REPLACES TANSU
CILLER AT HELM OF CENTER-RIGHT DYP

REF: ANKARA 2431


Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. Reason:
1.5 (b,d)



1. (C) Summary: Mehmet Agar, elected in November as in
independent M.P. and a notorious figure in the Susurluk
"State-Mafia" scandal of the mid-1990s, is the new leader of
center-right DYP, elected to replace former P.M. Tansu Ciller
at Dec. 14 DYP Convention in Ankara. Agar will likely steer
DYP along a more nationalistic course. While running counter
to prevailing popular interest in a more open and modern
society, such a course may help the party draw support from
disaffected youth and other elements that went for the
upstart Genc Party in November. End summary.


--------------
Agar In...
--------------



2. (C) Poloffs Dec. 14 attended the center-right True Path
Party's (DYP) extraordinary congress, held to elect a leader
to replace Tansu Ciller after the party's bitter defeat in
the Nov. 3 national elections. (After DYP just missed passing
the 10 percent national vote barrier, Ciller declared her
intention to step aside). Mehmet Agar, who in the mid-1990s
served as then P.M. Ciller's Interior Minister, won a
landslide victory, tallying 815 of some 1109 valid delegate
votes. Ilhan Kesici, though Ciller's favorite and a former
DYPer who returned to the party after the elections, finished
a distant second with 227 votes. One senior DYP official and
close Embassy contact claimed Ciller was busy parleying with
Kesici up to the last minute in a failed effort to keep Agar
from the top spot. She failed; with the handwriting on the
wall, she delivered a tearful farewell speech to the
assembled host.


--------------
...The Dragon Lady Out
--------------



3. (C) Although Ciller had announced that she would not stand
for party chairman again, she apparently had tried to
engineer a comeback at the convention. Before the
convention, some DYP contacts noted that, given the
"extraordinary" nature of the proceedings the party did not
have time to draw up a new slate of delegates and instead
relied on a cadre long cultivated and controlled by Ciller.
In the event, DYP's defeat at the polls Nov. 3 had burst the

Ciller balloon, sending even loyal associates scrambling for
safe haven. Party Vice Chairman M. Selim Ensarioglu, until
virtually the last minute a key Ciller backer, told
D/Polcouns Dec. 12 that Agar was likely to win -- and that an
Agar victory would mean the end of Ciller. Ensarioglu, a
Kurd, said he opposed the more aggressive, police-oriented
nationalism espoused by Agar, but was leaning toward him for
practical political reasons. In the event, Ensarioglu held
on to his Vice Chairmanship. Ciller advisor Omer Barutcu
told poloff Dec. 13 that if Agar won, Ciller would have "no
chance" to return to the Party helm in the future, though he
added that she is too ambitious to simply go quietly.


--------------
Agar Hams It Up at "Funereal" Convention
--------------



4. (C) The convention was poorly organized and devoid of the
usual enthusiasm and fanfare -- in the words of one DYPer,
"more like a funeral" than a party assembly. Ankara's
Ataturk Sports Hall, long a venue for such events, was
stifling even by normal sweat-house Turkish standards; the
intense cigarette smoke caused two elderly women to pass out
and the Master of Ceremonies to plead twice for attendees to
refrain from lighting up their cheap Turkish cigarettes.
Signs at the gates admonished those present to leave their
guns and other weapons at home, though many apparently
decided to ignore the advice. (Several senior DYP officials
had expressed concern before and during the conference that
given the high stakes involved, the event could turn
violent). The usually simple task of choosing the party
board turned into an hours-long and contentious process
because proper ballot cards had not been printed. Despite
their overwhelming numbers, Agar supporters could muster only
a few half-hearted "Prime Minister Agar" cheers.

5. (C) In his acceptance speech, Agar declared his goal is to
"unite the right" by first imposing unity and discipline on
the (moribund) DYP. Apparently inspired by a line attributed
to Cardinal Richelieu in Dumas' "The Three Musketeers," Agar
defended the 1996 "Susurluk" scandal -- the shadowy nexus
among senior officials of the military and Security Forces,
"mainstream" politicians, and criminal gangs involved in
fighting terror with terror and turning drug profits in the
Kurdish southeast (reftel and previous) -- asserting that
"whatever was done was done for the good of the State" and
not for personal gain.


--------------
Bio: Agar Takes DYP Rightward
--------------



6. (C) Agar, a former Governor of Erzurum and Chief of the
Turkish National Police, is best known for his role with
Ciller at the epicenter of Susurluk. While Ciller tried to
defend these actions and Susurluk perpetrators, she also
eventually tried to dump her one-time confidant Agar, who as
a DYP Member of Parliament was never tried for his alleged
crimes. Agar was reelected 1999 and again in 2002 as an
independent from his home province of Elazig in
east-southeastern Turkey. Claiming to be of Turkish origin,
Agar reportedly speaks the Zaza dialect of Kurdish that is
widespread in the region; according to one former Elazig
M.P., local Kurdish tribes have long supported Turkish
ultranationalist figures against rival tribal and other
organizations. Agar's strength lies in his reputation as a
man of the people with strong interpersonal skills and a
godfather-like presence. A graduate of Ankara University's
prestigious Political Science Faculty, Agar is married with
two children. Another child died of an illness in the late
1990s.



7. (C) Agar has some advantages. DYP's electoral defeat
prompted it to clean house. The new party leadership roster
is comprised of little-known and indeed some shadowy figures.
According to several sources, Agar's political eminence
grise is Ramazan Emre, an elderly man listed only as a member
of the Central Administrative Board but whom we have seen
making the rounds of Ankara tea-houses and back-room
establishments with an entourage fit for a kingmaker. Also,
despite its electoral defeat DYP tallied nearly 10 percent of
the vote, which if handled correctly could provide it with a
suitable base upon which to rebuild -- particularly given the
near obliteration of DYP's rivals, the Nationalist Movement
(MHP) and center-right Motherland (ANAP) parties. Ensarioglu
averred to us that Agar's presence in DYP will help reform
the hard right along more center-right lines. Others,
including a former DYP M.P. now an AK (Justice and
Development) Party member, worry that Agar will "MHP-ize" his
party: transform DYP into a carbon copy of the
ultranationalists.



8. (C) Agar's major liability is his association with
Susurluk in the eyes of a public eager for an end to
corruption in politics and the State, and a nationalism that
runs counter to the prevailing interest in a more open,
democratic society -- but which might win it enough
additional votes from erstwhile Genc (Youth) Party supporters
next time around. As Ensarioglu told us Dec. 12, "if there
was a national election on the horizon, Kesici would have
been the better man. But with the ruling AK holding a
commanding majority and in no danger of early elections, Agar
is the better man. At least, he's still in Parliament" as
the only DYP M.P. Asked whether the new DYP leader would be
a place-holder or the party leader into the next election
cycle, Barutcu speculated that the new DYP boss will face a
challenge if the party fails to do well in the next municipal
elections. Our contacts note that those polls must be held
no later than the spring of 2004, but could come early next
year.
PEARSON