TURKEY: OPPOSITION CHP SEES AN AK PARTY DIVIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 008783

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TU POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION CHP SEES AN AK PARTY DIVIDED
AGAINST ITSELF AND SEEKS TO EXPLOIT


(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter;
reasons: 1.5 (b,d)



1. (C) Summary: Trounced at the polls on Nov. 3, Deniz
Baykal's CHP is already trying to turn the tables on the
Islam-influenced AK Party government. CHP is now focusing on
the headscarf controversy that flared up again when AK's
Speaker of Parliament Arinc and his headscarf-clad wife were
on hand together to see off President Sezer on a foreign
visit late last month. We expect CHP to continue to hammer
at this point in the aftermath of the Nov. 29 National
Security Council meeting, during which AK was lectured by the
military about the virtues of Kemalist secularism (septel).
End summary.



2. (C) Much of the AK (Justice and Development) Party's
success in the Nov. 3 national election rested on its ability
to woo both religious voters and those on the center-right
disaffected by mainstream party fecklessness. According to
contacts on the political left-of-center, AK also benefited
from the perception that its main rival, the CHP (Republican
People's Party),is an elitist organization out of touch with
ordinary Turks; CHP leader Baykal's unpopular personality,
they say, also encouraged some center-left voters to stay
home on election day.



3. (C) Aware of their party's shortcomings, senior CHP
officials are trying to shift the focus to AK and its own
foibles. They tell us that a split between AK's "religious"
and "mainstream" wings is already growing and will
ultimately, they hope, lead to AK's demise -- either via a
confrontation with the Deep State or in a decisive defeat at
the ballot box.


-- CHP Deputy Group Chairman (party whip) Mustafa Ozyurek
pointedly told us Nov. 22 that CHP is "extremely
uncomfortable" with Arinc's supposed headscarf posturing,
predicting that this is only the beginning of anti-Kemalist
things to come. Ozyurek claimed that the headscarf is the
Islamist camel's nose under the Kemalist tent. Religious
Turks, he asserted, "now want equality" with the secularists
whom Ozyurek represents -- tacitly implying that they have
not yet achieved that status -- "but will soon seek
superiority." (Note: aware of the risk of being boxed in so
early in AK's tenure, AK leader Erdogan subsequently issued a
clear warning to party members to avoid bringing up the
headscarf issue in public. End note.)


-- Haluk Koc, another CHP Deputy Group Chairman, reiterated
to Poloff Nov. 29 CHP's concern about the headscarf. He
averred that an AK split is inevitable, but is likely to
emerge only slowly over the next year. Koc explained that
AK's "religious base" will demand more progress on
politically sensitive issues such as the headscarf, which CHP
and the Establishment see as a redline. He predicted that
"moderates" within AK will not support challenging the State
on the issue.


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Comment
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4. (C) While some of the CHP officials' comments reflect
wishful thinking, they also capture what may be AK's Achilles
heel. From what CHP is telling us, it is clear that the
party hopes to exploit the headscarf controversy to burnish
its own credentials as parliamentary champion of the Kemalist
establishment; paint AK as confrontational and as a mere
continuation of Refah-Fazilet Islamism; and drive a wedge
between what it sees as competing factions within AK.
Indeed, one local AK official -- a former administrator in a
center-right party -- told us prior to the elections that if
AK pushes too hard on religious issues, people like himself
will leave the party in droves. AK leaders except Arinc have
been trying to avoid the headscarf issue, recognizing the
danger of being decisively labeled "reactionary" as they try
to consolidate their Government's position early in its
tenure. Nevertheless, we can expect CHP to continue trying
to hammer away at this chink in the AK armor.
PEARSON