EU AMBIVALENCE, CYPRUS SEEN AS OBSTACLES TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 008778

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2007
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU
SUBJECT: EU AMBIVALENCE, CYPRUS SEEN AS OBSTACLES TO
TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY


REF: ANKARA 8586


Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch; reasons 1.5 b and d.



1. (C) Poloff discussed the state of Turkey's EU candidacy
with several Ankara-based European diplomats following a
November 26 meeting with Ambassador in which an unusually
downbeat PM Gul appeared to believe Turkey had recently lost
ground in its EU membership bid.


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EU Ambivalence
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2. (C) A Danish diplomat suggested that GOT officials may be
learning the extent of EU ambivalence about Turkey's
candidacy for the first time as a result of ruling AK Party
leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan's tour of EU capitals. He said
the highly positive press coverage of the tour was
misleading; leaders in countries such as Finland and Portugal
had made supportive public comments, but in private had told
Erdogan only that they favored setting a date for considering
when accession talks for Turkey might begin (a "date for a
date") rather than setting a concrete date at the December
12-13 EU Summit. Before Erdogan's visit, many EU members had
avoided spelling out their position on Turkey's candidacy,
and GOT officials may have assumed they had more support.


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Cyprus
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3. (C) UK, German, Swedish, Dutch, and Greek diplomats said
they did not/not believe Turkey had recently lost support in
their capitals. Some suggested GOT frustration could be
Cyprus related. Shortly after the November 3 election
Erdogan accepted the tacit linkage between progress on Cyprus
and EU membership, and made several optimistic statements on
Cyprus. More recently, Erdogan has tried to separate the two
issues and downplay hopes for a quick Cyprus agreement. The
diplomats speculated that leaders of the new GOT now realize
how difficult it will be to achieve a pre-Summit breakthrough
on Cyprus, and, as a result, may have lowered expectations
for the EU Summit.


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Reform Package May Come Too Late
--------------



4. (C) The diplomats agreed the GOT's new legislative reform
package (reftel),not yet introduced in Parliament, appeared
to include significant human rights measures. However, they
said, the package may come too late to affect EU thinking on
Turkey. DPM Yalcinbayir has said the new legislation will
not be passed before the Summit. In any case, the diplomats
said, EU capitals need time to grasp the significance of
legal reform in Turkey. The diplomats recalled that it took
most EU member states a couple of months to acknowledge the
GOT's August reform package and adjust their views on
Turkey's candidacy.


PEARSON