TURKEY: CHP ELECTION POSTMORTEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008079

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINR TU POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CHP ELECTION POSTMORTEM

REF: ANKARA 7766


(U) Classified by Acting Political Counselor Nicholas S.
Kass. Reason: 1.5(b)(d).



1. (C) Summary: The Nov. 3 Parliamentary elections were a
major defeat for CHP at the hands of AK. Although CHP joins
AK as one of only two parties in Parliament, CHP officials
and activists are deeply disappointed by their distant
second-place finish. Much of the blame has been placed on
CHP leader Baykal, who failed to overcome a reputation for
"factionalist" divisiveness, and star CHP candidate Kemal
Dervis. The CHP suffered from its image as a party of an
elite Establishment out of touch with the average, more
conservative Turkish voter. A chastened CHP in Parliament
will have a chance to demonstrate its willingness to
refashion the party along more social democratic and less
overtly Kemalist lines. End Summary.


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Failure Disguised as Success
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2. (C) Deniz Baykal's effort to emphasize the successful
return of his Republican Peoples' Party (CHP) to Parliament
on Nov. 3 belies what is widely acknowledged to be CHP's
trouncing at the hands of the Islam-influenced Justice and
Development (AK) Party (reftel). After three years in the
political wilderness, CHP returned to the legislature with
19.3% of the vote, 178 seats, and as the sole opposition
party. Nevertheless, the election results were met with
shock, disbelief, and disappointment at CHP headquarters,
where many had expected the party to capture the 25%-30% of
the vote traditionally apportioned to left-of center parties
in Turkey. CHP blew some significant advantages. Turkish
observers point out that although the party had long been
preparing for elections, was not tainted with the previous
Parliament's perceived failings, had no center-left
challengers to its position as champion of the Establishment
and "alternative" to AK, it fell short of the 20% mark.



3. (C) Much of the blame has been directed at Baykal and
former state minister Kemal Dervis, CHP's star candidate.
Offering a representative views, Former Deputy Speaker of
Parliament and Democratic Left Party (DSP) Izmir deputy
Atilla Mutman acknowledged to poloff that while voters had
lost faith in P.M. Ecevit's DSP, they stayed home on election
day rather than vote for a Baykal widely regarded as
quarrelsome and "factionalist." Former Independent (earlier
DSP) Ankara deputy Uluc Gurkan also pointed to Baykal's
unpopularity, as well as to CHP's generally weak candidate
list. Gurkan marveled that CHP's vote barely surpassed AK by
even 1.4% in Ankara's First District, a normally center-left
stronghold. On Nov 8. a former staffer at the Turkish NSC,
now with a Istanbul-based think tank, echoed to us comments
from numerous observers that Dervis' candidacy had played
poorly in the rural Anatolian heartland, and was in his view
the key reason for CHP's defeat.


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Comment: The New Face of Fundamentalism?
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4. (C) Though CHP finished first in only 12 of Turkey's 81
provinces, the leadership appears baffled by Turkish voters'
decision to opt for AK over the party of Ataturk. Where in
other countries the left prides itself on its role as
champions of the oppressed or the have-nots, the
"respectable" left in Turkey has largely become the
standard-bearer of the elite widely regarded as out of touch
with, and in some cases even hostile to, ordinary Turks.
(When invited to an Ramazan iftar (fast-breaking) dinner in
honor of departing poloff, newly elected CHP Ankara deputy
Yilmaz Ates declined, noting that he does not fast and so in
principle does not attend "these kinds of events.")



5. (C) Despite its failings, CHP is in Parliament, and thus
has a chance to demonstrate its willingness to refashion
itself along more social democratic and less Kemalist lines.
For now, Baykal is promising to work constructively with the
next (AK) government. After meeting with President Sezer on
Nov. 7 Baykal declared that CHP will support amending the
constitution's Art. 76 -- which could pave the way for the
restoration of Erdogan's political rights. Meanwhile, the
Kemalist "Cumhuriyet" daily, CHP's de facto mouthpiece,
sought to reassure Establishment voters through Nov. 7
headlines trumpeting the reactivation of the "West Working
Group" -- which was in the forefront of the "February 28
Process" under which the Islamist-led government of Prime
Minister Erbakan was ousted in 1997. The key question is
whether Baykal, aware of the voters' desire for change, will
allow his pragmatic streak to prevail over the combative
traits and Establishment pressures that, over time, may
encourage him to sharpen differences between a "secularist"
CHP and the "Islamic" AK.
PEARSON